Saying that the 2025-26 season hasn’t gone the way the Vancouver Canucks organization or their fans envisioned heading into the year would be a massive understatement.

With the direction of pushing for the playoffs and an unofficial but very obvious ‘Win for Quinn’ motto, Canucks management doubled down on its current core that missed the playoffs the year prior. Those decisions, along with a laundry list of injuries and learning new systems from a first-year head coach, have the Canucks dead last in the NHL standings.

As a result, the team has announced it will transition to a rebuild. And with rebuilds, the focus and entertainment value switch from the on-ice product to the future. Who is going to be the next wave of Canucks that will lead the way to contending seasons? That’s what fans get excited for in times like these.

And where do you get those types of players who can alter your franchise? High in the NHL Draft. Luckily for the Canucks, being dead last in the NHL standings gives you the best odds at landing the first overall pick.

But there’s still roughly a quarter of the season left, and a trade deadline before the lottery balls are pulled. A lot can change. Teams can get worse and sink in the standings, while other teams give their young players more opportunities and play themselves out of a higher draft position.

So, who are the most threatening teams to challenge the Canucks for the best odds at landing the first overall pick?

First, let’s look at the NHL standings, as of this writing:

As of this writing, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Washington Capitals, Ottawa Senators, Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, Florida Panthers, San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, Chicago Blackhawks, Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues and your Vancouver Canucks are all out of a playoff spot.

However, we can comfortably eliminate 10 teams from contention for the best odds at first overall.

In the East, it’s still a tight race. Six of the eight teams out of the playoffs are within 10 points of the final Wild Card spot. But it’s easy to see the contenders and pretenders. The Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs, Capitals, Senators, and Panthers are still actively pushing for the playoffs. Whether they are actual contenders for the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins for a Wild Card spot is another question, but that takes them out of the best odds for first overall contention.

There’s a bigger gap in the West. Four of the eight teams are within 10 points of the last Wild Card spot, but three of those teams are within five points and are more serious threats. The Kings, Sharks, and Predators are the three teams, while the Blackhawks are within the 10-point threshold, and the Jets are just one point behind them.

The first three teams may not add at the upcoming NHL Trade Deadline, but their goal is to make the playoffs. The Blackhawks have been grinding through their rebuild for some time; they likely won’t be too active on the trade market, thus won’t be making their team worse. We don’t believe anybody anticipated the Jets to be in the position they’re in coming into the season. Last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners have a playoff-calibre roster; things just haven’t gone their way. So, it’s probably safe to cross them off this list.

That leaves the Flyers, Devils and Rangers in the East, and the Flames and Blues in the West, as contenders for the Canucks for the best odds at first overall.

However, we can shave the list down even further. Here are the point totals for the remaining six teams, as of this writing:

The Flyers and Devils may be trending in the wrong direction, but they’ve built themselves a sizeable lead on the Canucks in the standings. The Flyers are 18 points ahead of the Canucks, while the Devils are 16. They would need to make up nine wins on the Flyers and eight on the Devils in order just to tie those respective teams.

Based on the Canucks’ .368 point percentage, they are projected to win around nine of their final 25 games. The Flyers and Devils would have to lose nearly every game the rest of the way just for them to tie the Canucks. That’s not going to happen.

So we can narrow our list now down to three, ranked in the order of most threatening to the Canucks: the Flames, Blues and Rangers:

The Flames have a 10-point edge on the Canucks and have seven more regulation wins with a game in hand.

Looking at the Flames’ lineup, there aren’t too many more moves they need to make this season. They’ve made their big trade, sending Rasmus Andersson to the Vegas Golden Knights. The only pending UFAs they have are Ryan Lomberg and Jake Bean, who, quite honestly, aren’t going to sink the Flames enough to catch the Canucks.

What would be concerning is if they move on from a pair of forwards with term who have been in the rumours lately: Nazem Kadri and Blake Coleman. While Kadri has informed the Flames that he would welcome a trade, he has three more seasons after this year. So there’s no rush in moving him. The same can be said for Coleman, who has one more year remaining; however, the belief is that he will move.

With a double-digit cushion heading into the Olympic break, a lot would have to break in the Flames’ favour for the Canucsk to catch them. However, a midseason Kadri move could make them a more serious threat for the best odds.

The Blues are the closest to the Canucks in the standings, only seven points ahead, and have seven more regulation wins in the same number of games played.

St. Louis is the team to watch down the stretch before the NHL Trade Deadline, as they seem to have everybody available. That includes Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn, etc. However, the reported asking prices are through the roof. So, GM Doug Armstrong can claim everybody is available, but when setting realistic asking prices, are they really available?

We’ve done this song and dance for years on Kyrou, yet he still remains a Blue. So, we’ll wait and see what Armstrong does in the limited window he will have following the Olympics. While executives can negotiate trades during the roster freeze, they can’t agree on any until February 23. Will the Blues be a little behind schedule, with their GM focused elsewhere as they try to sell off their pieces at high asking prices?

There just seems to be a lot of noise surrounding the Blues right now, with not much action. And if that’s the case, and they hold onto their guys and get Thomas and Dylan Holloway back, the Blues are only going to get better and move up the standings.

The Rangers are serious contenders for the Canucks for the best odds at drafting first overall. Luckily for the Canucks, the Rangers aren’t getting much worse than they are now, and they have eight fewer points than them. However, the Rangers decided to healthy scratch Artemi Panarin while they searched for a trade, and have since completed a deal, sending him to the Los Angeles Kings.

Since Panarin’s scratching, the Rangers have lost all three of their games. So, we already have a sample size of how rock bottom the Rangers can get without their former star winger in the lineup.

One positive for the Canucks when considering the Rangers’ plummeting is that, now that Panarin and Carson Soucy have been traded, they really don’t have much else to move. Looking at their contracts, the Rangers only have Johnny Brodzinski, Conor Sheary (IR) and Jonathan Quick as pending UFAs. Vincent Trocheck, who has three more seasons at $5.625 million per season, and Braeden Schneider, a pending RFA, have had their names thrown out in trade talks. But like the Flames’ situation, there is little urgency to trade those players before the deadline.

Things can all change if either of those two players is traded. But don’t forget, they have their Norris-winning defenceman (Adam Fox) and Vezina-winning netminder (Igor Shesterkin) returning at some point after the Olympic break. The Canucks don’t have the luxury of having those calibre players returning to their lineup, as they already traded Quinn Hughes and shut Thatcher Demko down for the remainder of the season.

Schedule-wise, the Rangers pose a different threat to the Canucks than the Flames or Blues because they play in the Eastern Conference. And by just giving the NHL standings a quick glance, the East is much harder than the West. So the level of competition will be harder for the Rangers down the stretch than some of the bottom feeders of the West, who will battle each other and the Canucks more times this season.

All in all, it’s going to be pretty hard for the Canucks to crawl their way out of the bottom of the barrel of the NHL standings. For our money, considering that the Canucks are still looking to move out some of their players, and the sizable gap between them and the next-worst team in the standings, Vancouver is comfortably in the driver’s seat for the best odds over the other three teams discussed.

However, securing the best odds at first overall is one thing, but that doesn’t guarantee the Canucks will get the right to select one of Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg first overall on draft night. In fact, the Canucks’ most likely pick if they do finish dead last is to pick third overall: 23.6% for first, 19.8% for second and 56.6% for third.

The Canucks have 25 games remaining following the Olympic break. And the race for the best odds at drafting first overall will only intensify as some of these teams get worse down the stretch and switch their focus to future years, as the Canucks have switched to earlier this season.

What do you think, Canucks fans? Who do you believe is the most threatening team to the Canucks for the best odds at selecting first overall? Let us know in the comments below!