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The Statsies: Rough second period costs Canucks in overtime loss to Jets
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Photo credit: © Simon Fearn-Imagn Images
Michael Liu
Feb 26, 2026, 14:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 26, 2026, 13:05 EST
Back to reality.
The Vancouver Canucks dropped a 3-2 overtime loss to the Winnipeg Jets in their return from the Olympic break. After such exciting, excellent hockey for the past two weeks, we’re now back to watching this Canucks team floundering in the basement once more. It wasn’t a terrible game for them, and they weren’t trailing at any point last night. However, Vancouver also did not look like a team that was going to move the needle toward a win, and in the end, that proved true in overtime.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.

Game Flow

The first and third periods weren’t actually too bad at all for the Canucks. They traded chances with the Jets, finding themselves in the thick of it with a near 50/50 split in both CF% and xGF% in those periods. The big thing that dug them into the hole that’s seen on the game flow chart was the second period. The numbers weren’t even close during the middle frame, as Winnipeg took a stranglehold to the tune of 77.42 CF% and 81.04 xGF%. It’s a bit of a surprise that the Jets weren’t able to capitalize on this more, but in any case, it was definitely a big part of how the visitors were able to equalize the contest. Credit to the Canucks for being able to come out for the third and bounce back from the second, but they definitely didn’t do themselves any favours with how they played in that middle frame.

Heat Map

The heat map isn’t the worst thing in the world, tracking with the fact that the first and third were neck and neck. In total, Winnipeg held a 27-19 lead in scoring chances with an 11-6 edge in high-danger chances. Of this, 10 scoring chances came in the second period, and five of those scoring chances were registered as high-danger. The Canucks were in the thick of it otherwise, if one were to disregard that rough second period, but the heat map is more than fair when it came to painting a picture of how this game went overall.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Nils Höglander led all Canuck skaters with a 53.85 CF% last night, primarily deployed in a fourth-line role. He actually played the second-least amount of any Canuck skater, posting just 9:25 TOI, but was relatively effective even in that limited capacity, holding a 2-1 shot advantage against the Jets’ depth pieces. One would hope that Höglander would be given a bit more of a leading role in the bottom six, but for what it was worth, he was pretty solid.
Corsi Chump: It should say a lot about the strides that Tom Willander has made that he’s been entrusted to become one of the Canucks’ primary shutdown options. The young Swede was paired up with Marcus Pettersson, recording a team-low 24.00 CF% while taking on Winnipeg’s top six throughout the night. While he was on ice for a goal against, Willander still managed to post a 39.21 xGF%, which was right around team average. This was going along with a 0.55 xGA, which was right in the mushy middle when it came to that raw stat. It’s not bad at all, given the opposition that he was facing, although one could hope that Willander isn’t being thrown to the wolves too much in his rookie year.
xGF: Thanks to the deployment he got and the limited TOI against weak opposition, Höglander also led the Canucks with a 65.84 xGF% on the night, facing a team-low 0.2 xGA with a 1-1 split in high-danger chances. It’s pretty marginal to say the least, and Höglander himself probably wasn’t moving the needle all that much for the Canucks overall as a team. Leading the way in raw xGF was Filip Hronek, as the defenceman generated 1.21 xGF. That being said, Hronek also faced down 1.94 xGA, splitting a 12-16 hole in scoring chances and a 3-7 deficit in high-danger chances.
GSAx: Nikita Tolopilo was a big reason for the Canucks being able to stave off that second-period surge by the Jets. Winnipeg threw a total of 3.84 xGF against the Belarusian netminder over the course of regulation and overtime, with only three high-danger chances getting past Tolopilo. His 0.84 GSAx was a very solid performance, especially after such a layoff, and gave Vancouver a pretty darn good opportunity to steal a result in this contest.

It's been a brutal year all around, but we might need to start giving Nikita Tolopilo some flowers here. Often will give you a big save or two per game while keeping them in it. Has been a bright spot in a troubling goaltending situation.

Jeff Paterson
Jeff Paterson
@patersonjeff

I hear you, but they will present it. Somebody is going to be named Most Exciting. Can't be Quinn Hughes. Can't be Kiefer Sherwood. But it's going to be somebody...

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Statistical Musings

A weird game from the first line: Despite managing to combine for the go-ahead goal, the overall numbers for the Jake DeBrusk – Elias Pettersson – Evander Kane line were… odd. Yes, they were put out there against the Cole Perfetti unit, which was top six minutes, but they also ended up tallying the team’s lowest CF% of any forward line with a 31.03. Their xGF% was a stone-cold 19.73, which was also a team-low in that category. This was despite putting up 0.35 xGF, which was the second-best on the team, as the DeBrusk – Pettersson – Kane line was out there for a massive 1.41 xGA. The second-worst mark in that category as a forward line was a 0.62, for context. Again, they found the scoresheet, but this first line just doesn’t seem to be putting up the sustainable advanced numbers one would expect out of a top line.

As a team

CF% – 37.29% HDCF% – 33.33% xGF% – 32.76%
It’s hard to really get excited about this team, especially after watching what amounted to a dream team play hockey for the past two weeks. The Canucks simply are not a good team, and despite being in the mix of things for 2/3 periods, there are not enough talent or gamebreakers that made a difference for them in the end. Still, there are bright spots within this lineup, and one can hope that they can provide the skeletal framework for what this Canucks team could be when they finally rebuild properly.
Vancouver heads down Hwy 99/I5, taking on the Seattle Kraken at Climate Pledge on Saturday.
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