The Vancouver Canucks finally got their first win of the season on Thursday, beating the Florida Panthers 3-2 in overtime. And – on the surface, anyway – Nils Höglander didn’t seem to play too major a role in the victory. He had no goals, no assists, an even plus/minus rating, one shot on goal, and three hits.

With that in mind, it might seem like an odd time for a praise article. And yet, there is a Höglander stat from Thursday that stands out, and it’s his ice time. Höglander skated 18:11 against the Panthers, which was the fifth-most among Canuck forwards after JT Miller, Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, and Elias Pettersson.

That might not sound like an excessive amount of playing time, but it is for a player who only averaged 12:06 last year. If anything, it’s a further sign of the increased trust that Höglander has gained in the eyes of Rick Tocchet. Or, perhaps the proper term here is ‘earned.’

It may be a bit silly to say, but Thursday’s matchup felt a little like an early-season must-win, what with the Canucks going winless in their first three. The only reason Höglander would be playing that much against the defending Cup champs would be because Tocchet felt Höglander was going to make a positive difference out there.

And so far, albeit in relatively quiet fashion, making a positive difference is exactly what Höglander has done thus far in 2024/25.

This was something presaged in the preseason. Tocchet spoke at length about Höglander’s performance in camp – how he showed up in tip-top shape, dominated on-ice drills, and looked to have taken yet another step forward after a breakout 24-goal campaign last season.

That Höglander didn’t start in the Canucks top-six was really just a matter of line arrangement. Daniel Sprong and Danton Heinen got the first shots at top-six duty not because they outperformed Höglander in the exhibition schedule, but really just because Tocchet and Co. saw a better fit for him beside Garland. And they appear to have been on to something.

Through four games, and having played the bulk of his minutes with Garland, Höglander has been achieving excellent results.

Really, much of the praise we’re throwing Höglander’s way applies just as much, if not more, to Garland. They have proven to be quite the dynamic duo. But whereas for Garland, this is just a continuation of last year’s step-up into the expectations the Canucks had for him when they first acquired him, Höglander is at a very different stage in his career. He’s still just 23 years old, and well within the zone of becoming a complete player.

What we’re saying is that whatever Höglander manages this season could still easily be considered a ‘breakout,’ or better yet a further evolution of him as a player. And so far? So very good.

Like we said, this is a subtle, quiet excellence. Höglander has just one goal and one assist through four games. Technically, that’s a higher point-pace than the 36 points in 80 games he notched last year, but a slower goal-scoring rate.

But point-totals don’t count for everything, especially not this early in the season. And any deeper-than-surface-level look at Höglander’s performance reveals that he probably should have, and probably eventually will have, more points.

We’re not just talking about Höglander ringing one of the post against Florida, just narrowly missing out on a game-winning goal, either.

The advanced analytics are, as we like to say, sparkling.

The rate of expected goals is quite high when Höglander is out there, currently at 59.59%.

Höglander has the third-highest Corsi rating among Canucks forwards thus far with a 54.46%. That makes him one of only six Canucks forwards with a rating above 50%.

His control of scoring chances is even higher, at 65.85%. That’s third-highest on the team behind captain Quinn Hughes and the rookie Aatu Räty. Worth noting at this point that while Räty’s high rating in this category could be attributed to sheltered minutes, the same cannot be said about Höglander anymore. He’s starting a roughly even number of shifts in each zone, and he’s skating plenty against top-six competition. Again, we see signs of an increase in trust from Tocchet.

He’s also doing all this with relatively poor puck-luck. NaturalStatTrick has Höglander at the lowest PDO (combined on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage) of any Canuck forward who has played in each game. Only Daniel Sprong and Arshdeep Bains have lower PDOs than Höglander’s 0.962. That suggests his numbers could be even better if another bounce or two went his way, and eventually they will.

The stats say that Höglander has been the ice for more 5-on-5 scoring chances for (27) and fewer against (14) than JT Miller (26 and 18). It was Miller’s turn to be the hero on Thursday. It will be Höglander’s soon enough.

And as we’ve mentioned a couple of times by now, all of this has been accomplished while developing some serious chemistry with Garland. One might have worried initially that these two low-centre-of-gravity individuals might have been too similar to mesh as linemates, but the opposite have been true. Höglander and Garland have looked so good together, it can’t help but make one wonder where Dakota Joshua is going to go when he makes his pending return to action. At this point, it’d be tough to split up Höglander and Garland, and who saw that coming?

Last year, the book on Höglander was that he was having a spectacular individual season, but had yet to really mesh with any linemates and was putting up a lot of his goals on mostly solo efforts.

That no longer seems to be the case.

We’ll end with this note. Though it isn’t exactly backed up by statistics, most would agree that Thursday’s game was the best game of the season for Pettersson, and the first in which he’s looked anything like his old self. Perhaps not-so-coincidentally, this came after his being placed on a line between Höglander and Garland.

It’s just one of the many ways in which Höglander (and Garland, too) has found a way to make a positive difference on the ice for the Canucks in 2024/25. Which, in turn, is one of the many reasons why he’s gained so much more trust from Tocchet, which in turn has led to more ice (and a nice contract extension, too.)

We’re still seeing the evolution of Höglander as a hockey player in real-time, and, like his unique style of puck handling, it’s quite a thrill.