logo
CanucksArmy has no direct affiliation to the Vancouver Canucks, Canucks Sports & Entertainment, NHL, or NHLPA
The Statsies: Arshdeep Bains leads Canucks in xGF% in loss to Sabres
alt
Photo credit: © Bob Frid-Imagn Images
Michael Liu
Dec 12, 2025, 13:45 ESTUpdated: Dec 12, 2025, 13:38 EST
Comments
This is fantastic, isn’t it?
The Vancouver Canucks lost 3-2 to the Buffalo Sabres last night. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, as once more, the Canucks did actually put a decent statistical effort on paper. Unfortunately for them, they ran into a hot Alex Lyon, and seemed to turn it up just a little bit too late for it all to matter. Which, again, has happened more than once this year. There’s just not a sense that this is a team that can overcome a deficit, that can battle through and actually push a result over the finish line.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.

Game Flow

Vancouver had a steady edge for the large majority of the game, starting out strong with a 66.67 CF% edge and 55.86 xGF% lead in the first period. That only led to a 1-1 tie, but it was better than being in a massive hole with promising analytics behind them. However, the second was when they showed ever-so-slight signs of weakness, ones the Sabres took full advantage of. The share metrics weren’t even that bad, with the Canucks recording a 46.43 CF% and 45.10 xGF% – but that was all Buffalo needed to pull ahead 3-2. The third, especially towards the end, saw Vancouver hounding their opposition, but despite an 83.33 CF%, 89.57 xGF% off a 1.22-0.14 xGF tilt, the Canucks weren’t able to convert.

Heat Map

Honestly, at 5v5, this heat map was good at both ends of the ice. The Canucks got themselves a 26-13 scoring chance lead, a 10-6 high-danger chance edge within that, and made sure that the Sabres weren’t able to get all too much going. They had the relatively thicker hot spot in the low slot, which again is all one could ask for. Vancouver turned in a relatively stronger performance at both ends of the ice compared to their opposition – but unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get the win despite the good things they did.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Jake DeBrusk topped the Corsi charts last night, leading the team with an 82.76 CF%. However, being played with Max Sasson and Linus Karlsson wasn’t the answer to unlocking his production, despite the goal by the centerman of that line. DeBrusk tallied a 62.49 xGF%, which was solid but just slightly below team average, while being on ice for a 10-2 scoring chance differential. However, it was only a 2-1 high-danger chance lead for the Canucks with DeBrusk on the ice.
Corsi Chump: Tom Willander had a rougher game, as despite getting 80.00% of his faceoff starts in the offensive zone, and 100.00% of his shift starts in the attacking end, the Swede still posted a team-worst 40.00 CF%. Given the Canucks’ edge in that category, that meant that Willander had a -32.73 CF% rel to team average, which is pretty unfortunate. On ice for a goal against, the young defenceman also had the second-worst xGF% of 38.19 while playing primarily against Buffalo’s second line. Not ideal, but it should be considered part of the growing process for Willander.
xGF: Arshdeep Bains led the Canucks in xGF% at 85.44, thanks in large part to his team-best 0.13 xGA. Playing well in the bottom 6, the winger managed to hold a 4-0 high-danger chance edge, which was pretty significant given that Vancouver only totaled 10 of them at 5v5 action. He didn’t find the scoresheet unfortunately, which was probably needed given that the Canucks haven’t been able to get offence from anyone up and down their lineup. In raw xGF, Quinn Hughes continues to generate plenty of chances with a 1.41 xGF, but he’s also got to start scoring at some point as well, off of the promising numbers.
GSAx: Thatcher Demko’s return between the pipes didn’t go to plan. With how well the Canucks played in front of him, the Sabres only managed to post 1.79 xGF on the night. That meant that by giving up 2 middle danger goals against and 1 low-danger goal against, Demko’s GSAx would finish with a -1.21 on the night. Given that Vancouver did end up losing by 1 goal, it would seem that this ended up proving pretty costly for the team as a whole. Interestingly enough, the stats also show that the Sabres never managed to get a high-danger shot against Demko, meaning that he didn’t make a single high-danger save.

Statistical Musings

Where Drew O’Connor as a center… worked?: This was an interesting line combination, to say the least. With the dearth of center options in the Canucks lineup, Adam Foote opted to throw Drew O’Connor between Evander Kane and Kiefer Sherwood, hoping for the very best. They actually turned in a pretty decent performance, posting the best CF% of any Canucks line at 70.00, while also recording a 0.26 xGF, good enough for a tie in second-place for that category. Defensively, they did suffer a bit, dragging their overall xGF% down, but that should also be expected given the fact that O’Connor probably hasn’t played a full game with the defensive responsibilities of a centerman. Ideally, this isn’t a long-term fix, but it wasn’t a bad shout for a single game.
Kampf struggles: David Kampf is not a top 6 forward. It’s clear to everyone to see, and it’s also not a surprise – and yet, he continues to find himself iced in that role, playing between Conor Garland and Brock Boeser and absolutely sewering any chance that those two can get their offensive engines rolling again. Kampf posted the second-worst CF% on the team (42.11) and the worst xGF% at 36.11. His linemates were a full 10% higher than him, at minimum, in both those share metrics.

As a team

CF% – 69.42% HDCF% – 73.91% xGF% – 66.97%
Again, the Canucks were not particularly bad last night. In most games, a team with the numbers that they put up would win the game. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t seem like this Canucks group has the juice to do so, to deliver on the promising metrics that they generate to get a result that they so desperately need. As they continue to sink to the bottom of the standings, as their captain is once more embroiled in trade rumours, one has to wonder – just where do these depths lead, and when will there actually be substantial change to deliver this fanbase from suffering?
Speaking of convenient timing, Vancouver heads into New Jersey on Sunday to take on the Devils.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com
Sponsored by bet365

Editorials

Breaking News