The Vancouver Canucks will look to bounce back after an ugly 2-4 home stand as they take on the Ottawa Senators Saturday night. They will be without two key forwards in this matchup, as Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller will remain sidelined.

In a year where the Senators were expected to finally push for a playoff spot once again, they sit second last in the Eastern Conference and are 3-6-1 in the last 10 games.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It feels a little harsh to pick on head coach Rick Tocchet’s Canucks side right now, who have managed a 9-6-3 record despite some tough injury luck this season. Still, I speculated ahead of last week’s matchup with the New York Islanders that the Canucks results were heavily aided by a soft schedule and that their results versus in tougher matchups were highly concerning.

The Canucks didn’t exactly prove that idea wrong, as they went 1-3-0 in the following four games and held an expected goal share of just 43.66%.

With Boeser and Miller sidelined, the Canucks’ top six isn’t overly convincing. Elias Pettersson has been better recently, but he is being asked to carry a top line alongside Jake DeBrusk and Kiefer Sherwood for the time being. Sherwood deserves plenty of credit for his strong start as a Canuck, but is not likely to thrive in a top-line role, while DeBrusk has struggled in the top six this season.

The Canucks defence corps also looks a little concerning right now, and GM Patrik Allvin is likely exploring options for an upgrade on the back end. While the team has defended reasonably well, one more quality puck-moving defender would certainly help the team pop offensively.

Kevin Lankinen has been confirmed as the Canucks starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .902 save percentage (S%) and 2.71 goals against average (GAA) across 13 appearances this season.

While the Canucks have plenty of excuses entering this matchup, the Senators have essentially none. Noah Gregor is the only regular expected to be missing from the lineup, and top goaltender Linus Ullmark has been confirmed as their starter.

The majority of the Senators’ top pieces are now skating in their true primes, and the addition of Ullmark was supposed to clear up their biggest issue from last season, which was goaltending. Admittedly, I bought into the hype that the Senators would finally push back into the playoffs this season.

Their current four-game losing skid has dropped their playoff chances to just 34.9% (per MoneyPuck.com), while oddsmakers offer them a 38.5% chance of snapping their seven-year playoff drought based on their current +160 price tag to get in.

Those numbers might even seem a little generous looking at the actual standings, but they are boosted by the fact that the Senators hold a strong underlying profile and have played a tough schedule.

Over the last 10 games, the Senators hold a 52.76% expected goal share but have struggled mightily to finish off quality chances, shooting just 6.21%. They are rostering plenty of pieces that have fairly high offensive potential. This suggests that their offensive results will stabilize in time, given the league average of chances being generated.

Ullmark has not performed as expected to this point, as he holds a .887 S% and a -3.7 goals-saved above-expected (GSAx) across 12 appearances. His disappointing play has clearly been the difference in a number of matchups, including last week’s ugly 5-4 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Given the differing records between these teams, it might look pretty surprising to some to see the Canucks priced as +120 underdogs in this matchup. A deeper dive into the recent play of these sides suggests it is fair, though, and this is a tough get-right for a Canucks side missing two top forwards and a Vezina-level goaltender.

The Senators have played a tougher-than-average schedule recently and still hold a strong underlying profile in those matchups. If their goaltending stabilizes moving forward, their overall process should start to yield better results. As noted, they have shot 6.21% over the last ten matchups, and that mark won’t hold with the offensive talents on hand.

At -145 or better, I see value in backing the Senators to win this matchup.