The Vancouver Canucks bounced back from their ugly loss versus the Edmonton Oilers with a 3-1 victory over the Calgary Flames in a favourable scheduling spot. They are now 7-2-1 over the last 10 games and will be on top of the Pacific Division if they are to win their games in hand on the Vegas Golden Knights.

The New York Islanders enter this matchup with somewhat of a skeleton lineup, as they are missing five NHL regulars including Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech. They are 3-2-1 over the last six though, and have been very competitive of late despite those absences.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Canucks would be wise not to look past this matchup, as the Islanders have been surprisingly competitive of late. In the time that Barzal and Pelech have been sidelined, the Islanders have collected eight of 12 possible points and, in their last three games, have grabbed four-of-six points from a trio of quality opponents.

The Islanders have played to a 47.58 expected goal share in the last ten games. While that mark may not sound overly competitive, it’s more competitive than expected, given how they’re viewed in the betting market and the fact that they will always receive elite goaltending.

Veteran forwards Kyle Palmieri, J.G. Pageau and Brock Nelson have elevated their game since slow starts to the season, helping cover Barzal’s absence. After an excellent training camp, Maxim Tsyplakov was viewed as a sleeper in the Calder Trophy race and has contributed seven points in the last nine games.

Pelech, Mike Reilly and Alexander Romanov leave Patrick Roy’s side short three NHL regulars on the back end. That has opened the door for Isaiah George to play big minutes, and the 20-year-old has opened a lot of eyes with his excellent recent play.

Semyon Varlamov is expected to get the start in this matchup. He has put up an .887 save percentage (S%) and -0.3 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in six starts this season, but was excellent a year ago in posting a +9.1 GSAx and .918 S%.

The Canucks put together a solid performance Tuesday in earning a 3-1 victory over the Flames in what was somewhat of a scheduled win. While they are 7-2-1 in the last 10 games, that has come against a favourable slate of opponents. They are just 2-3-1 against teams expected to make the playoffs and hold a -11 goal differential in those matchups.

Over the last 10 games, the Canucks have played to a 52.31% expected goal share, but that mark becomes far less impressive if you eliminate the results against cellar dwellers such as the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Still, there are plenty of positives to point towards surrounding start to the season even if they’ve not necessarily made a legitimate case of being a true Cup Contender at this point.

Aside from Elias Pettersson, most of the usual suspects have played extremely well, and even Elias Pettersson has looked better of late. If Thatcher Demko is to return in top form, Vancouver could hold one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, as Kevin Lankinen has been fantastic.

The Canucks second pairing of Tyler Myers and Carson Soucy has struggled mightily versus quality opponents this season, but the rest of the defence corps looks excellent. Quinn Hughes is sure to be in the Norris Trophy mix once again, and Vincent Desharnais has stabilized on the third pairing alongside Erik Brännström, who has been excellent.

It is unclear whether Lankinen will start in this matchup or not, so keep your eyes out for goaltending confirmations out of morning skate. Lankinen holds a .911 S% and 2.46 goals against average (GAA) in 11 games played this season.

The Islanders have been surprisingly scrappy of late and have been a profitable bet at 3-3 straight up in the time since Barzal and Pelech have been sidelined. That mark has come versus a fairly strong schedule, and their ability to hang around on the strength of elite goaltending makes them an enticing bet at this kind of number.

You can only beat the team in front of you, but the Canucks recent form does appear to be propped up by a number of strong performances against soft competition. Brock Boeser’s absence from the lineup hurt their offensive upside and helps the Isles’ chances of hanging around in this matchup.

The Islanders will lose this game more often than not, and I’m not trying to argue that point. However, I do feel New York has a better chance than its +150 price tag suggests, and see value backing the Isles’ at anything better than +145.