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The Statsies: Tom Willander continues to shine in Canucks’ Halloween loss to Leafs

Photo credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images

By Jeffrey Kennett

Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 1, 2026, 11:56 EST

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The scariest thing at Rogers Arena on Halloween was the Vancouver Canucks‘ second period. After an upbeat opening 20 minutes, the final score hardly captures just how spooky things got in the middle frame. Vancouver surrendered 10 high-danger chances without generating a single one at five-on-five, giving Toronto all the opportunity it needed to seal the deal.

Tom Willander delivered another strong performance on the blue line, while Max Sasson’s line provided some much-needed offence. However, the top six struggled to keep pace, and the Canucks couldn’t turn another heartening third-period effort into enough dangerous opportunities to complete a comeback.

Here’s the loss, by the numbers. As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here).

Game Flow

For the opening 20 minutes, Vancouver’s five-on-five numbers suggested the Canucks were in pretty good shape despite falling behind early. The Canucks controlled 64.71% of shot attempts in the first period, out-attempting Toronto 22-12 and generating a 73.25 xGF%. Their 1.18-0.43 expected-goals advantage was particularly reassuring and the Canucks finished the period with a 7-3 advantage in high-danger chances. After Thursday’s disappointing finish against San Jose, the opening frame offered some hope that Vancouver had shown up to play, but then came the second period, where just about everything fell apart.

Toronto out-attempted Vancouver 25-12 at five-on-five, limiting the Canucks to a miserable 32.43 CF%. The expected-goals differential was worse, with the Leafs generating 1.84 expected goals while Vancouver managed just 0.10, leaving the home team with an astonishingly poor 5.08 xGF% for the period. Auston Matthews and Zack MacEwen supplied the goals, but Toronto could have done considerably more damage, holding a 15-2 advantage in scoring chances, with all 10 high-danger opportunities going their way.

Vancouver eventually recovered some territorial control in the third, finishing with a 68.42 CF% and out-attempting Toronto 13-6 at five-on-five. The Canucks generated just 0.44 expected goals against Toronto’s 0.47, leaving them with a 48.79 xGF% despite controlling more than two-thirds of the shot attempts. Across the entire game, Vancouver’s 52.22 CF% was fine. Its 38.63 xGF%, however, told a considerably different story, particularly once score and venue adjustments brought those figures down to 47.33 CF% and 34.56 xGF%.

Heat Map

The heat map is a pretty clear explanation for why Vancouver’s shot-attempt advantage didn’t amount to much. Toronto generated much of its most dangerous pressure around the Canucks’ crease and through the inside of the defensive zone, while Vancouver produced some opportunities in close, but its offensive pressure was considerably less concentrated in those dangerous areas.

At five-on-five, the Leafs finished with a 15-8 advantage in high-danger chances, giving Vancouver just a 34.78 HDCF%. The bulk of that damage came in the second period, when Toronto completely shut the Canucks out of the high-danger areas while generating 10 such opportunities of its own.

Despite controlling 75% of scoring chances in the final frame, the Canucks managed just one high-danger opportunity while allowing two. Their six scoring chances came from considerably less threatening locations than the sheer volume of attempts might suggest. Vancouver generated four high-danger opportunities during 6:28 on the powerplay, accounting for half of its five-on-five high-danger total despite playing a fraction of the minutes.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Tom Willander continued his sturdy play, leading Vancouver with a 65.71 CF% at five-on-five. During his 18:54, the Canucks generated 23 shot attempts while surrendering just 12, giving him a team-best plus-22.08 relative Corsi. Those weren’t empty possessions, either. Vancouver held a 12-4 advantage in scoring chances and a 6-3 edge in high-danger opportunities with Willander on the ice.

Corsi Chump: Luke Schenn had a considerably tough evening against his former team. The veteran defenceman finished with a team-worst 35.29 CF%, as Vancouver was out-attempted 11-6 during his 9:41 at five-on-five. It didn’t help that MacEwen’s eventual game-winner bounced off his back after Meriläinen failed to control the initial shot.

xGF: Willander topped this category as well, finishing with a 65.86 xGF%. Brendan Gallagher wasn’t far behind at 64.96%, with Vancouver controlling eight scoring chances to Toronto’s two during his 10:10 at five-on-five. His 1.09-0.57 expected-goals differential was particularly eye-catching, considering how badly the rest of the defence struggled during the second-period.

GSAx: Leevi Meriläinen’s numbers don’t look particularly sensational, but he was far from Vancouver’s biggest problem, stopping 24 of 27 shots for an .889 save percentage and a positive 0.50 goals saved above expected. Two of the three goals he surrendered were classified as low-danger, although he stopped 10 of 11 high-danger shots. The former Senator made several important saves during the Leafs’ first-period power plays, including a difficult sequence when Vancouver was down two skaters for 1:08. Anthony Stolarz finished with a plus-0.78 GSAx at the other end, allowing two goals against Vancouver’s 2.78 expected.

Statistical Musings

Sasson’s line provided some much-needed life: With Filip Chytil sidelined, Sasson made a strong case for more responsibility. His combination with Paul Cotter and Gallagher was Vancouver’s most effective regular forward unit, generating a 64.71 CF% and 64.69 xGF% in 8:03 together at five-on-five, including three high-danger opportunities against two and providing some of the Canucks’ most effective offensive shifts.

Top line couldn’t repeat its San Jose performance: Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson and Boeser were among the Canucks’ strongest combinations against the Sharks, but across 10:26 together at five-on-five, the trio controlled just 40.91% of shot attempts and an underwhelming 23.60 xGF%.

Attempts don’t tell the whole story: Liam Öhgren, Jacob Quillan and Linus Karlsson finished with a capable 55.56 CF%, out-attempting Toronto 10-8 during their 9:24 together. Unfortunately, the trio surrendered four high-danger chances without generating one, producing just 0.10 expected goals against 0.68 for Toronto. Their 12.45 xGF% was the lowest of Vancouver’s four regular forward combinations. It was a considerable drop for Öhgren and Karlsson, who were part of the dominant trio alongside Marco Rossi against Anaheim.

Former Canucks made themselves at home: The Leafs had plenty of familiar faces in their lineup, and their depth forwards caused Vancouver all sorts of problems. The combination of Brandon Duhaime, Teddy Blueger and Zack MacEwen controlled an extraordinary 88.89 CF% during 6:50 together at five-on-five. Toronto generated eight shot attempts against just one for Vancouver and a 3-0 advantage in high-danger chances. Between those two and Dakota Joshua, whose 0.68 individual expected goals led Toronto at five-on-five, somewhere, Jim Rutherford is eating halloween candy with a smile.

As a team

CF% – 52.22% | HDCF% – 34.78% | xGF% – 38.63%

Despite another disappointing result, the Canucks have now put together three consecutive games with underlying signs of progress. Their performances against Anaheim, San Jose and Toronto have been more convincing than the results might suggest, with Saturday’s strong start and late push showing the team may be finding its footing, even if the second-period collapse shows there’s still plenty to clean up.

Perhaps the Canucks got their Halloween treat a little early with Tuesday’s comeback victory in Anaheim. Consecutive losses to San Jose and Toronto have followed, but three straight games with favourable stretches suggest Vancouver is playing the right way in stretches. For now, though, the tricks are still outweighing the treats.