The toll that this season is taking.

The Vancouver Canucks dropped a 5-3 decision to the Winnipeg Jets. It wasn’t as lopsided as the score might suggest though, the Canucks battling pretty valiantly in this one. They didn’t give up and actually pieced together some solid analytics, probably deserving a better fate than the one they were handed. In the end though, Vancouver lost, and there’s yet more injury concern throughout the lineup.

Here’s the loss, by the numbers.

As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.

The opening period was a back-and-forth affair. The Jets got on the board early, before the Canucks delivered two goals of their own, before Winnipeg answered back with another two goals on top of that. Vancouver didn’t do too poorly in the first, actually posting a 61.30 xGF% share off a 1.28-0.81 xGF advantage. They outchanced Winnipeg 12-7 in the opening frame with a further 5-4 high-danger chance edge. There wasn’t much to note about the second period, with both teams hovering in balance and not really moving the needle. The third though saw the Canucks hold a 62.16 CF% and 78.36 xGF%, posting 1.03 xGF while only giving up 0.30 xGA. Realistically, that should’ve been plenty to get Vancouver the tying goal, but that early marker by Winnipeg did come in clutch for the visitors to put them into an advantageous position for the rest of the game.

The heat map actually looks pretty favourable to the Canucks. While the high-danger chances were an even split at 10-10 during even-strength play, Vancouver held the overall edge in scoring chances by a 29-18 margin. That much is shown by the vaster areas that the Canucks’ attempts were coming from, and even a little with the larger hot spot they had in front of Connor Hellebuyck. It would’ve been nice to see them convert on their opportunities more, especially at 5v5, but outchancing the Jets is definitely a positive to take away from this loss.

Corsi Champ: Aatu Räty led the Canucks in the Corsi department with a 72.22 CF% to his name. Spending his night primarily playing against the Jets’ middle 6, Räty didn’t do all that poorly, managing to hold his opposition to just 2 shots against during his TOI. The Finn has looked darn good between Drew O’Connor and Jake DeBrusk, that line clicking well as of late both on the statsheet and on the scoreboard.

Corsi Chump: On the flip side, Lukas Reichel posted the team’s worst CF%, coming in at 38.71 CF% last night. The German was on ice for a goal for, but that was coming in spite of the team’s second-worst xGF% at 47.18, which was a -18.31 xGF% rel to team average. Reichel was on ice for a 7-4 scoring chance lead, but was down 2-4 when it came to high-danger chances. Adam Foote has been dead set on icing Reichel between Kiefer Sherwood and Brock Boeser as of late, but the advanced stats are really not liking the three combined.

xGF: It was Räty who led the Canucks in xGF% as well, recording a team-best 83.13 against Winnipeg. It’s pretty impressive that the Finn racked up a second-best 1.30 xGF, and especially so when considering that he played just 10:01 TOI at 5v5 action. But, a big headliner was Tom Willander, who led the Canucks with a 1.90 xGF. For a rookie defenceman, it’s a sizeable contribution, and the numbers make sense when looking at the fact that Willander was out for a 16-6 scoring chance advantage and 6-3 high-danger chance lead as well. The progression of the young defenceman has been something quite nice to see, and a bright spot in what has otherwise been an up-and-down ride to this season.

GSAx: Thatcher Demko had a rough first period before being lifted for injury. The Jets only recorded 0.95 xGF against him across all situations, meaning that with 2 high-danger goals and 1 low-danger goal against, the netminder tallied a -2.05 GSAx in just the one period. Coming in for relief, Kevin Lankinen did perform better. Facing down 1.67 xGF the rest of the way, the Finn only let 1 high-danger chance past him, resulting in an ever so slightly positive 0.67 GSAx. Hopefully, Demko can get back to full health soon, as for the last couple of appearances he’s been in the negatives for GSAx – something that has historically marked an injury that he’s dealing with.

Lights a little too bright: With how injuries have depleted this lineup, a lot of players are being put into disadvantageous situations, playing higher up than they probably should be. Elias Pettersson the defenceman is one glaring example of this, as top 4 minutes seem a little too soon for the young Swede. This isn’t saying that he’s been particularly bad, but in the role that he’s currently being deployed in, Pettersson is not being set up to succeed. Against the Jets, the defenceman faced the team’s worst xGA of 1.11, despite splitting a 5-5 high-danger chance battle with the opposition. You’d hope that one of your younger faces on the back end isn’t left out to dry like this, but with the reality of the lineup, D-Petey unfortunately gets the short end of the stick here.

Forward depth needed: We’ve been harping on the Abby Line for a while, with the exception of last time out against the Blackhawks, but it’s been apparent that something needs to give in the Canucks’ forward group to bolster this lineup. Karlsson-Sasson-Bains were ineffective at best in their 4:42 TOI at 5v5 play, posting a 33.33 CF% and 33.41 xGF% during that span. They literally did not move the needle for the Canucks and it’s been a drag on this group. Vancouver needs all the punch that it can get, and this line certainly hasn’t provided much of anything of note – though they’re very much still drawing into the lineup out of necessity.

The Canucks probably deserved better out of this game than losing 5-3 in regulation. It just never fully got into their control, unable to establish themselves on the scoresheet despite all of the good things that they did. But again, it highlights what a difference having better talent in your lineup can do, to deliver on all the promise and probabilities that these advanced stats tell. Unfortunately, the Canucks are lacking that top end quality, and the players in the lineup can only do so much as is right now.

Vancouver hits the road again, landing in Raleigh to take on the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday.