Two teams in desperate need of a win will face-off when the New York Islanders host the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday. Both teams are right in the thick of highly competitive Wild Card races and have little margin for error heading into the final stretch of the season.

The Canucks sit five points back of the red-hot St. Louis Blues for the final playoff spot, but do have two games in hand. The Islanders are in a more favourable situation, as they are only one point behind the Montreal Canadiens, with both teams having played 70 games.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Canucks deserve a ton of credit for their shootout victory over the New Jersey Devils on Monday, as they displayed a ton of resilience in coming back twice in the third period, including a goal from Conor Garland with 36 seconds left to play. The Canucks held a 19-15 edge in high-danger scoring chances, and outshot the Devils 28 to 25.

With Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil and Nils Höglander sidelined it was critical for some other skaters to step up, and there were several Canucks’ forwards who did author a higher level of play in Monday’s matchup.

Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored a critical goal late in the third and also came through with a clutch shootout winner. On top of that, he led the team with a 90.45% expected goal share and consistently drove possession thanks to smart decisions with the puck. He will likely remain on the second line alongside Garland and Teddy Blueger in this matchup.

Aatu Räty also authored a solid performance in his first game back from the AHL, skating as the team’s third line centre alongside Drew O’Connor and Kiefer Sherwood.

Quinn Hughes was tremendous once again, and the Canucks continue to look like a completely different team in the minutes he is on the ice. Hughes generated six shots on goal in a season high 31:38 of time on ice.

Thatcher Demko made a solid return to action, making some critical saves in the third period and overtime to earn his first win since February 6th. While the Canucks would surely love to ease Demko back into action, it would still seem surprising if they don’t go back to last year’s Vezina runner-up in this crucial game. Demko holds a +1.9 GSAx rating and a .890 save percentage in 18 appearances this season.

The Canucks underlying results have improved considerably in the month of March, as they hold a 54.35% expected goal share, and have allowed only 22.60 shots against per 60. Only the Blues have allowed fewer shots against per 60, and given Vancouver’s current lack of high-end offensive talent, it will surely need to continue defending well to earn wins.

Almost down to the minute that the Canucks earned their critical shootout victory over the Devils, the Islanders suffered a painful shootout loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Kyle Palmieri appeared to put his side in front with just nine seconds left to play, but after a lengthy review, the situation room opted to stick with the call on the ice of no goal due to goaltender interference.

While it’s certainly fair to say the Islanders were unlucky that the winner came off the board, Monday’s matchup was yet another blown multi-goal lead, which is something New York has done more than any other team over the last two seasons. In each of the last three games, the Isles have led in the third period by at least one goal, and all three games ended up going to overtime.

It’s natural for all teams to go into somewhat of a defensive shell in attempting to preserve leads, but the Islanders seem to almost entirely stop attempting to play at the other end of the ice.

The Islanders have suffered through some of the league’s worst luck with injuries this season and spent much of the middle part of the season playing without numerous significant pieces. They are still without top forward Mathew Barzal, but he is the only skater on the IR, so the situation is much better than it was previously.

The Islanders hold a 46.85% expected goal share during the month of March, but goaltender Ilya Sorokin has trended into top form to help the team earn a solid record of 6-3-3. Sorokin owns a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances since the break and a +15.3 GSAx rating this season.

This matchup features two teams in similar situations who appear to be playing at a pretty comparable level right now. Both teams are right in the thick of heated Wild Card races, which should lead to a high level of desperation from both sides. Neither team features a ton of offensive upside right now, and both have looked to hang around and win low even matchups.

Four of New York’s last six games have required overtime, while the two matchups which did not need extra time were tied mid-way through the third. Three of Vancouver’s last seven matchups have also required overtime.

It seems likely that tonight’s matchup will feature close score-lines throughout, as it’s hard to imagine either team laying an egg in this spot and allowing their opponent’s modest offence to generate a significant lead. At a hefty price of +307, I see value backing this game to require overtime, and I would play it to +297.

It could also be worth monitoring live betting prices if the Canucks are trailing late in this game, looking to bet Vancouver at long prices. The Islanders have been horrible at protecting leads, and Vancouver has done a good job of pressing to tie games up recently.