The Vancouver Canucks will look to head into the holiday break on a high note when they host the San Jose Sharks as heavy favourites Monday evening. The Canucks have lost three straight and are just 3-4-3 over the last 10 games, and the negativity surrounding the team seems to be hitting a fever pitch inside the market.

The Sharks are just 3-6-1 over their last 10 games, but have looked much more competitive this season compared to last under new head coach Ryan Warsofsky.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While the Sharks rank 29th with a record of 11-19-6 this season, the vibe surrounding the team has felt entirely different compared to last year, when they finished with a record of 19-54-9 and a goal differential of -150. Keeping in mind that it was unrealistic for the Sharks to compete for a playoff spot this season, you could argue their start has been somewhat ideal.

2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini has been even better than expected, as he has generated 23 points in 24 games played this season, and displayed a tremendous compete level all over the ice while creating chances at an elite level.

The acquisition of defender Jake Walman from Detroit looks to be an absolute slam-dunk, as the 28-year-old has generated 25 points without being exposed on the defensive side of the puck.

Sharks GM Mike Grier netted a strong return for former goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood, who was unlikely to stay with the team past this season, and he’s clearly banking on the premise that Yaroslav Askarov is the team’s goaltender of the future. Askarov played the best game of his young career Saturday in Edmonton, as he stopped 39 of 42 shots in a 3-2 overtime loss.

Askarov holds a +1.8 GSAx and .928 save percentage in his first three starts this season, and will likely continue to heavily outplay the Sharks’ other goaltending option, Alexandar Georgiev, the rest of the way. Georgiev holds a -10.3 GSAx and .874 save percentage in 21 games played this season.

It has not yet been announced which of the two Sharks’ netminders will get the start in this matchup, and the ultimate decision is significant from a handicapping perspective.

Over the last month of play, the Sharks hold a record of 5-9-0 straight-up, and an expected goal share of 48.84%. While that record sounds pretty awful, it has been enough to garner a +1.2% ROI due to the massive underdog prices that San Jose is typically priced at, and its underlying results suggest it could win at a higher rate moving forward.

The Canucks suffered another tough loss Saturday night, as they fell to the red-hot Ottawa Senators in overtime. The main storyline surrounding the team continues to be the reported rift between star forwards Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, and frankly the coverage of the situation has become somewhat embarrassing.

This matchup presents the team with a good opportunity to stabilize and quiet the noise ahead of a holiday break that is surely well coveted inside the locker room.

While the Sharks have been playing at a higher level than their reputation suggests, they are still by a wide margin the worst defensive team that the Canucks have faced since they played the Columbus Blue Jackets on December 6th.

In the month of December, the Canucks have scored 2.90 goals for per game, and generated only 3.02 xGF/60. I speculated that they would bounce back offensively in a matchup versus Senators backup goaltender Leevi Merilainen, and they were able to do so in tallying four goals.

Of those four goals two came from Brock Boeser, who continues to try and find the form we saw last season when he netted 40 goals in 81 games. Boeser skated alongside Miller and Phillip Di Giuseppe Saturday, and leads the team with 0.75 individual expected goals.

Part of Boeser’s dropoff in 2024-25 has been caused by the lesser play of Miller this season. The two played the majority of minutes together last year and formed a highly effective tandem, but have failed to produce at a comparable rate thus far.

Thatcher Demko is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds an .887 save % and 3.18 GAA in his first four starts of the season.

The Canucks have a great opportunity to head into the holiday break with a much-needed win in this matchup, and I do believe that we will see them bring a spirited performance in this spot.

The Sharks are still being priced as if they are a true bottom-feeder though, despite the fact that their level of play has clearly elevated considerably of late. At their opening price of +240, there looked to be value backing San Jose, but at the current price of +205 I would pass, and would even actually lean towards Vancouver at the current prices if Georgiev is confirmed as San Jose’s starter.

This does look like a good matchup to back some of the Canucks’ top offensive stars being productive after eight straight games against teams that have been suppressing the opposition’s offensive chances at better than average rates. Miller and Boeser have obviously underperformed of late, but I think we will see them put together a strong performance in this favourable matchup.

The difference between Askarov and Georgiev already looks quite wide, and I am going to alter my bet depending on who is the starter. If Askarov plays, I’m going to bet Boeser to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +130. But if Georgiev plays, I will be betting Boeser to score at +170.