The Vancouver Canucks return home from a two-game road trip to host the red-hot Ottawa Senators. With 38 and 36 points, respectively, in 32 games played this season, these teams hold highly comparable records entering this matchup, and the betting prices in this matchup suggest that in a neutral venue, oddsmakers view them as equals.

These two teams have gone in opposite directions lately, though. After a slow start to the season, the Senators have turned things around with a record of 9-2-1 in their last 12 games, propelling them into the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

Meanwhile, Vancouver is just 4-3-3 in December and now holds only a one-point lead over the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club for the final Western Conference playoff spot.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

When Ottawa traded for superstar goaltender Linus Ullmark this offseason, it was widely speculated that it could be the move which finally culminated its lengthy rebuild. The Senators held a 31st-ranked team save percentage of .884 last season, which was justifiably viewed as a key reason for yet another playoff absence.

The Senators’ underlying results were solid in 2023-24, which was a key reason that they seemed likely for such marked improvement by adding a Vezina-winning goaltender in Ullmark. It took a little time for Ullmark to find his groove, but he has been the hottest goaltender in the league lately. In his last eight outings, Ullmark holds a record of 7-0-1 and a save percentage of .959.

Therefore the Canucks appear to be catching quite a break, as third-string goaltender Leevi Merilainen has been confirmed as the Senators’ starting goaltender in this matchup. Merilainen holds a .903 save percentage and 2.43 GAA in 13 appearances in the AHL this season.

While Ullmark has deservingly been the major story surrounding the Senators of late, their overall game has looked quite solid. The underlying numbers agree, as over the last 10 games, the Senators hold a 52.95% expected goal share and have allowed only 27.15 SA/60.

They have struggled to finish off scoring chances lately, though. Over the last 10 games, they have scored just 2.90 goals per game despite generating 3.29 xGF/60. If they struggle to finish their chances in tonight’s game, it could prove particularly concerning, given the potential drop-off between Merilainen and Ullmark in goal.

The Canucks’ suffered a tough loss on Thursday night in Vegas, as they ran out of gas in the third period of a very difficult scheduling spot versus one of the league’s best teams. While it was a losing effort, it was arguably still a performance to be proud of given the overall difficulty of the matchup. Those who backed Vegas -1.5, like myself, can certainly feel lucky that it ended up being a winner.

The Canucks generated just nine high-danger scoring chances but allowed only 10 themselves. Now that the Canucks’ have lost a few more ‘coin-flip’ type games, their current lack of offensive upside is becoming a more notable concern.

Over the last 10 games, the Canucks’ have scored just 2.80 goals per game and hold a 16th-ranked xGF/60 rating of 3.03. While it’s unlikely the 2024-25 edition of the Canucks will get close to last season’s productivity, they also shouldn’t be this stagnant offensively moving forward. In those 10 games, they have played seven matchups against teams currently in better-than-average defensive form.

Based on today’s morning skate, it looks as though Jake Debrusk, Elias Pettersson and Conor Garland will be reunited on the top line. Phillip Di Giuseppe will get another opportunity to play in the top six alongside Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller.

Kevin Lankinen has been confirmed as the Canucks’ starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .912 save % and 2.50 GAA in 22 appearances this season.

Recent Senators games have not looked to be quite as low-event as the final score-lines suggest, as they have received unsustainably strong goaltending from Ullmark while also struggling to finish chances at the other end of the ice. Moving forward, I’m not sure Senators games will be so low-scoring on average, and this looks like a good spot to target that thought with Merilainen making the start.

The Canucks’ offence has not been in great form of late, but their offensive concerns have certainly been exacerbated by the amount of high-quality defensive teams they have played recently. They likely have room to grow from an offensive perspective and could find more success tonight offensively versus an unproven net-minder.

At -120, I see value in backing this matchup to feature over 5.5 combined goals, and I would bet over 5.5 to -130.