Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent Goals and Expectations for each Vancouver Canucks player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.

Nils Höglander was thrust into a top 6 role late in the 2023-24 season after the Russian experiment didn’t go so well alongside Elias Pettersson. That cameo came as a cherry on top of a breakout season for the young Swede, setting a career-high 24 goals and 36 points in 80 games. Höglander complimented Pettersson well down the stretch and looked to be a solid winger heading into the postseason.

About that postseason, though. Höglander came down to earth, looking mostly ineffective throughout the Canucks’ two series. It wasn’t that he was particularly bad — he just didn’t look like he was making a difference. Those performances have cast a bit of a shadow on what to think of the 2019 second-round pick. He’s been able to put up points and play in the NHL, and as a cost-controlled young winger, there’s still room for improvement. But just what heights will Höglander reach?

Luckily for him, the Canucks are sure to give Höglander an audition to cement his place in Vancouver’s top 6. There’s going to be more competition, but it’s a clear opportunity within a forward corps looking for someone to fill that role. What are reasonable expectations and goals for Nils Höglander heading into the 2024-25 season?

A lot of attention was drawn to Höglander’s massive shooting percentage last year. At 20.0%, it was twice as high as his 2022-23 shooting percentage of 10.3%, which naturally led to some raised eyebrows. Surely, he wouldn’t be capable of replicating that kind of finishing, right?

Regression is probably the right expectation here. But, exceeding those expectations would mean that Höglander’s regression wouldn’t be as drastic. Sure, he’s not going to be shooting at a 20% clip, but it could find itself within the 12-15% range (which would still be pretty high). With an increased volume of shots expected, given the deployment and role that Höglander would play, his production could match up and surpass where he was in 2023-24.

If Höglander can become a 25-goal scorer while adding in over 50 points on top of that, the Canucks are laughing to the bank. At $1.1 million average annual value (AAV), Vancouver would be getting bonafide top 6 production for a fraction of the cost of what a winger would run for. Certainly, it would add more offensive punch and solve the issue of finding that winger to round out the forward corps.

This is based on the expectation that the Canucks will have Höglander in the top 6 to start the year. Given the added ice time and responsibilities that come with it, the Swede will have a good chance to replicate his production from the previous season while accounting for a regression in shooting percentage based on the increased volume of chances. His average TOI last year sat at 12:06, and one would expect that a second-line winger would be seeing the ice a lot more than that.

The biggest piece of this is wanting Höglander to continue being a great 5v5 player. Last season, the Swede was one of the best players in the NHL at even strength, and for a team that had its issues generating consistent offence at even strength. Vancouver is hoping Höglander can extrapolate that success in his larger role.

Getting him to cement himself as a viable second-line option would help in figuring out a longer-term solution for the team’s wingers. At 23 years old, Höglander could be a great piece for the Canucks to keep around at a reasonable cost, a player that can slide up and down the lineup without feeling too out of their depth. That utility and flexibility would prove immensely beneficial for the team.

This would suck to see, especially after such an impressive 2023-24 season. In the postseason, Höglander looked pretty much invisible for a good chunk of the time, with an occasional moment here or there that reminded you he was on the ice. There were times when the winger looked jittery and unsettled as the puck, and play went to his stick and died.

If Höglander’s shooting percentage crashes and the volume simply isn’t there to support it, his production will fall off a cliff. The fear is that with the decline in offence, there’ll be a loss in confidence, and that tentativeness that showed itself in the playoffs will be here to stay. While he’s on a cheap contract, a step back at the age of 23 doesn’t bode well for future success, as last season should be a platform for him to spring into a larger role.

Below expectations would see Höglander take a step back from where he was at the end of the regular season. That would make him a fourth-line forward, which wouldn’t be ideal for any parties involved in the situation. While some of Vancouver’s free agent signings might be able to help stem the tide in that scenario, the Canucks would have to look for their top 6 winger going forth elsewhere.

Höglander will probably not come close to the 20% shooting percentage he sported last year. And that’s fine — he won’t need to if he continues to do the right things and is given more ice time to offset that conversion rate. The biggest thing with the Swede is showing that his 2023-24 season wasn’t just a fluke and that he can consistently produce points and play against the best that opponents have to offer.

The goals are within reach for him and represent yet another step in his development to becoming a full-time NHLer. Höglander has already reached a career-high in games played in 80 last year — can he prove that he’s one of the team’s best options to play in the top 6?