Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/goals-expectations-canucks-sniper-jake-debrusk">Goals and Expectations</a> for each <a class="text-accent" href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/should-canucks-traded-yaroslav-askarov" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vancouver Canucks</a> player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.
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Nils Höglander was thrust into a top 6 role late in the 2023-24 season after the Russian experiment didn&#8217;t go so well alongside Elias Pettersson. That cameo came as a cherry on top of a breakout season for the young Swede, setting a career-high 24 goals and 36 points in 80 games. Höglander complimented Pettersson well down the stretch and looked to be a solid winger heading into the postseason.
About that postseason, though. Höglander came down to earth, looking mostly ineffective throughout the Canucks&#8217; two series. It wasn&#8217;t that he was particularly bad — he just didn&#8217;t look like he was making a difference. Those performances have cast a bit of a shadow on what to think of the 2019 second-round pick. He&#8217;s been able to put up points and play in the NHL, and as a cost-controlled young winger, there&#8217;s still room for improvement. But just what heights will Höglander reach?
Luckily for him, the Canucks are sure to give Höglander an audition to cement his place in Vancouver&#8217;s top 6. There&#8217;s going to be more competition, but it&#8217;s a clear opportunity within a forward corps looking for someone to fill that role. What are reasonable expectations and goals for Nils Höglander heading into the 2024-25 season?
<blockquote>Exceeding Expectations: Höglander picks up where he left off, puts up 25+ goals and 50+ points</blockquote>
A lot of attention was drawn to <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/nils-hoglander-trusted-goal-scorer-trade-bait-vancouver-canucks-year-review">Höglander&#8217;s massive shooting percentage last year.</a> At 20.0%, it was twice as high as his 2022-23 shooting percentage of 10.3%, which naturally led to some raised eyebrows. Surely, he wouldn&#8217;t be capable of replicating that kind of finishing, right?
Regression is probably the right expectation here. But, exceeding those expectations would mean that Höglander&#8217;s regression wouldn&#8217;t be as drastic. Sure, he&#8217;s not going to be shooting at a 20% clip, but it could find itself within the 12-15% range (which would still be pretty high). With an increased volume of shots expected, given the deployment and role that Höglander would play, his production could match up and surpass where he was in 2023-24.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Random Canucks Goal Of The Day 
March 23rd, 2024. Nils Hoglander scores a beautiful breakaway goal. Jacob Markstrom never stood a chance on this one.
🎥: Sportsnet | NHL <a href="https://t.co/Hg1FeSVhCg">pic.twitter.com/Hg1FeSVhCg</a>
&mdash; CanucksArmy (@CanucksArmy) <a href="https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1827088615467258262?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
If Höglander can become a 25-goal scorer while adding in over 50 points on top of that, the Canucks are laughing to the bank. At $1.1 million average annual value (AAV), Vancouver would be getting bonafide top 6 production for a fraction of the cost of what a winger would run for. Certainly, it would add more offensive punch and solve the issue of finding that winger to round out the forward corps.
<blockquote>Meets Expectations: Höglander puts up 20 goals, ~40 points and finds a home in the middle 6</blockquote>
This is based on the expectation that the Canucks will have Höglander in the top 6 to start the year. Given the added ice time and responsibilities that come with it, the Swede will have a good chance to replicate his production from the previous season while accounting for a regression in shooting percentage based on the increased volume of chances. His average TOI last year sat at 12:06, and one would expect that a second-line winger would be seeing the ice a lot more than that.
The biggest piece of this is wanting <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/nils-hoglander-one-nhl-top-5v5-goal-scorers-real-good-canucks-trade-him">Höglander to continue being a great 5v5 player.</a> Last season, the Swede was one of the best players in the NHL at even strength, and for a team that had its issues generating consistent offence at even strength. Vancouver is hoping Höglander can extrapolate that success in his larger role.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Nils Höglander is having a break out season! <a href="https://t.co/Zuc9YoFDAv">pic.twitter.com/Zuc9YoFDAv</a>
&mdash; CanucksArmy (@CanucksArmy) <a href="https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1772317615207121079?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Getting him to cement himself as a viable second-line option would help in figuring out a longer-term solution for the team&#8217;s wingers. At 23 years old, Höglander could be a great piece for the Canucks to keep around at a reasonable cost, a player that can slide up and down the lineup without feeling too out of their depth. That utility and flexibility would prove immensely beneficial for the team.
<blockquote>Below Expectations: Postseason Höglander carries on, becomes a tweener.</blockquote>
This would suck to see, especially after such an impressive 2023-24 season. In the postseason, Höglander looked pretty much invisible for a good chunk of the time, with an occasional moment here or there that reminded you he was on the ice. There were times when the winger looked jittery and unsettled as the puck, and play went to his stick and died.
If Höglander&#8217;s shooting percentage crashes and the volume simply isn&#8217;t there to support it, his production will fall off a cliff. The fear is that with the decline in offence, there&#8217;ll be a loss in confidence, and that tentativeness that showed itself in the playoffs will be here to stay. While he&#8217;s on a cheap contract, a step back at the age of 23 doesn&#8217;t bode well for future success, as last season should be a platform for him to spring into a larger role.
Below expectations would see Höglander take a step back from where he was at the end of the regular season. That would make him a fourth-line forward, which wouldn&#8217;t be ideal for any parties involved in the situation. While some of Vancouver&#8217;s free agent signings might be able to help stem the tide in that scenario, the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/report-jonathan-lekkerimaki-to-represent-the-canucks-at-the-2024-nhlpa-rookie-showcase">Canucks would have to look for their top 6 winger</a> going forth elsewhere.
<blockquote>Goals for Nils Höglander in 2024-25
<ul>
<li>Score 20-25 goals</li>
<li>Put up 40-45 points</li>
<li>Establish himself as a top 6 winger for the Canucks</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
Höglander will probably not come close to the 20% shooting percentage he sported last year. And that&#8217;s fine — he won&#8217;t need to if he continues to do the right things and is given more ice time to offset that conversion rate. The biggest thing with the Swede is showing that his 2023-24 season wasn&#8217;t just a fluke and that he can consistently produce points and play against the best that opponents have to offer.
The goals are within reach for him and represent yet another step in his development to becoming a full-time NHLer. Höglander has already reached a career-high in games played in 80 last year — can he prove that he&#8217;s one of the team&#8217;s best options to play in the top 6?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Nils Hoglander ties the game just 1:45 after the Oilers opened the scoring!
Excellent response by Vancouver! 
📽️: Sportsnet | NHL <a href="https://t.co/sRzkkBl5TF">pic.twitter.com/sRzkkBl5TF</a>
&mdash; CanucksArmy (@CanucksArmy) <a href="https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1791990369292308814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Sponsored by bet365!
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Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/goals-expectations-canucks-sniper-jake-debrusk">Goals and Expectations</a> for each <a class="text-accent" href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/should-canucks-traded-yaroslav-askarov" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vancouver Canucks</a> player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.
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&nbsp;

Nils Höglander was thrust into a top 6 role late in the 2023-24 season after the Russian experiment didn't go so well alongside Elias Pettersson. That cameo came as a cherry on top of a breakout season for the young Swede, setting a career-high 24 goals and 36 points in 80 games. Höglander complimented Pettersson well down the stretch and looked to be a solid winger heading into the postseason.

About that postseason, though. Höglander came down to earth, looking mostly ineffective throughout the Canucks' two series. It wasn't that he was particularly bad — he just didn't look like he was making a difference. Those performances have cast a bit of a shadow on what to think of the 2019 second-round pick. He's been able to put up points and play in the NHL, and as a cost-controlled young winger, there's still room for improvement. But just what heights will Höglander reach?

Luckily for him, the Canucks are sure to give Höglander an audition to cement his place in Vancouver's top 6. There's going to be more competition, but it's a clear opportunity within a forward corps looking for someone to fill that role. What are reasonable expectations and goals for Nils Höglander heading into the 2024-25 season?
<blockquote>Exceeding Expectations: Höglander picks up where he left off, puts up 25+ goals and 50+ points</blockquote>
A lot of attention was drawn to <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/nils-hoglander-trusted-goal-scorer-trade-bait-vancouver-canucks-year-review">Höglander's massive shooting percentage last year.</a> At 20.0%, it was twice as high as his 2022-23 shooting percentage of 10.3%, which naturally led to some raised eyebrows. Surely, he wouldn't be capable of replicating that kind of finishing, right?

Regression is probably the right expectation here. But, exceeding those expectations would mean that Höglander's regression wouldn't be as drastic. Sure, he's not going to be shooting at a 20% clip, but it could find itself within the 12-15% range (which would still be pretty high). With an increased volume of shots expected, given the deployment and role that Höglander would play, his production could match up and surpass where he was in 2023-24.

https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1827088615467258262

If Höglander can become a 25-goal scorer while adding in over 50 points on top of that, the Canucks are laughing to the bank. At $1.1 million average annual value (AAV), Vancouver would be getting bonafide top 6 production for a fraction of the cost of what a winger would run for. Certainly, it would add more offensive punch and solve the issue of finding that winger to round out the forward corps.
<blockquote>Meets Expectations: Höglander puts up 20 goals, ~40 points and finds a home in the middle 6</blockquote>
This is based on the expectation that the Canucks will have Höglander in the top 6 to start the year. Given the added ice time and responsibilities that come with it, the Swede will have a good chance to replicate his production from the previous season while accounting for a regression in shooting percentage based on the increased volume of chances. His average TOI last year sat at 12:06, and one would expect that a second-line winger would be seeing the ice a lot more than that.

The biggest piece of this is wanting <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/nils-hoglander-one-nhl-top-5v5-goal-scorers-real-good-canucks-trade-him">Höglander to continue being a great 5v5 player.</a> Last season, the Swede was one of the best players in the NHL at even strength, and for a team that had its issues generating consistent offence at even strength. Vancouver is hoping Höglander can extrapolate that success in his larger role.

https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1772317615207121079

Getting him to cement himself as a viable second-line option would help in figuring out a longer-term solution for the team's wingers. At 23 years old, Höglander could be a great piece for the Canucks to keep around at a reasonable cost, a player that can slide up and down the lineup without feeling too out of their depth. That utility and flexibility would prove immensely beneficial for the team.
<blockquote>Below Expectations: Postseason Höglander carries on, becomes a tweener.</blockquote>
This would suck to see, especially after such an impressive 2023-24 season. In the postseason, Höglander looked pretty much invisible for a good chunk of the time, with an occasional moment here or there that reminded you he was on the ice. There were times when the winger looked jittery and unsettled as the puck, and play went to his stick and died.

If Höglander's shooting percentage crashes and the volume simply isn't there to support it, his production will fall off a cliff. The fear is that with the decline in offence, there'll be a loss in confidence, and that tentativeness that showed itself in the playoffs will be here to stay. While he's on a cheap contract, a step back at the age of 23 doesn't bode well for future success, as last season should be a platform for him to spring into a larger role.

Below expectations would see Höglander take a step back from where he was at the end of the regular season. That would make him a fourth-line forward, which wouldn't be ideal for any parties involved in the situation. While some of Vancouver's free agent signings might be able to help stem the tide in that scenario, the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/report-jonathan-lekkerimaki-to-represent-the-canucks-at-the-2024-nhlpa-rookie-showcase">Canucks would have to look for their top 6 winger</a> going forth elsewhere.
<blockquote>Goals for Nils Höglander in 2024-25
<ul>
 	<li>Score 20-25 goals</li>
 	<li>Put up 40-45 points</li>
 	<li>Establish himself as a top 6 winger for the Canucks</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
Höglander will probably not come close to the 20% shooting percentage he sported last year. And that's fine — he won't need to if he continues to do the right things and is given more ice time to offset that conversion rate. The biggest thing with the Swede is showing that his 2023-24 season wasn't just a fluke and that he can consistently produce points and play against the best that opponents have to offer.

The goals are within reach for him and represent yet another step in his development to becoming a full-time NHLer. Höglander has already reached a career-high in games played in 80 last year — can he prove that he's one of the team's best options to play in the top 6?

https://twitter.com/CanucksArmy/status/1791990369292308814

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Goals and Expectations in big contract year for Canucks’ Nils Höglander

Jonathan Lekkerimäki during the Vancouver Canucks' 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets at the 2024 Young Stars Classic from Penticton, BC.

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