Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent Goals and Expectations for each Vancouver Canucks player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.

For Vancouver’s biggest offseason signing, Jake DeBrusk represents an exciting unknown for the Canucks. The winger looks to be a good fit in the top 6 stylistically and skill-wise as the team looks for a solution of who to pair Elias Pettersson with.

DeBrusk comes to Vancouver having produced 40-point campaigns in five of his seven NHL seasons. In those seasons, he’s hit the 20-goal mark thrice and finished at 19 goals twice. The offensive production isn’t the only part about his game that clicks with the Canucks, though; it’s how his two-way game manifests itself as a defensively responsible, fast, physical winger that gets to the dirty areas to bury pucks. That element should bode well alongside the creatively-minded Pettersson, who hasn’t had that kind of profile of a player to work with in his career thus far.

The former Boston Bruin isn’t without his issues either, however. To start the 2023-24 campaign, DeBrusk was streaky and inconsistent, going with just one goal in the first 15 games of the season. He pulled it together in the stretch run and was one of Boston’s better players in the playoffs, but that streakiness is something the Canucks are hoping to avoid.

With his name pencilled alongside Elias Pettersson, what are reasonable expectations and goals for Jake DeBrusk heading into the 2024-25 season?

This might sound like a lot, but DeBrusk has shown (albeit briefly) that he could be on pace to reach these kinds of numbers. In 2022-23, the winger recorded 27 goals and 23 assists for 50 points in just 64 games. This came with an average of 16:47 TOI, which hovers around second-line minutes. DeBrusk has hit the 27-goal mark previously in the 2018-19 campaign as well, so it isn’t entirely unreasonable to hope that he could break the 30-goal mark and elevate himself further.

With the deployment that he will likely receive playing in the Canucks top 6 and potential spots on special teams, DeBrusk will have ample opportunity to improve his production. Such an increase is probably expected, given that he’ll be with more talented linemates, but jumping from a career-high 50 points to over 65 points is a tall task. But it’s not entirely out of the question, making it a good exceeds-expectations cut-off.

It’s not like the numbers aren’t there to support a good increase anyway. DeBrusk was shooting at a 10.4 shot percentage (S%) clip, below his career average, and still managed to generate 19 goals, all at even strength. For a Canucks group who often struggled to produce offence at 5v5, it’s a welcome boon, one that he still has room to improve on, given the deployment and ice time.

Probably the biggest part of this all would be finding that chemistry with Pettersson and becoming a partner in crime for the Swede. If DeBrusk can hit on that and cement himself in that role, then his production exceeding expectations could become even more realistic.

Playing and paying Jake DeBrusk in your top 6 should mean his production will align with that. While it won’t be asking for the moon, having DeBrusk be in the range of the 30-goal plateau seems to be a reasonable expectation. He’s already reached the baseline of 25 goals in a season thrice, so asking for a couple more markers in an increased role doesn’t appear to be much of a stretch.

The added production should also help push DeBrusk to a new career-high in points. It does also bank on him staying healthy for a full season (knock on wood), but with the talent that Vancouver has to work within the top 6, and how he doesn’t have to contend with Brad Marchand lining up with Boston’s best, and it should allow DeBrusk to push past his career high of 50 points and reach a new ceiling in production.

One of the biggest aspects of DeBrusk’s addition is his experience playing both on the penalty kill and the power play. Vancouver lacked a true net-front presence on the man advantage last year, and having a player like DeBrusk to fill that gap in the bumper should help aid not only his own production but the team’s efficacy on the power play. Plus, Boston utilized his speed and physicality effectively on the penalty kill, icing DeBrusk for only 11 seconds less than noted PK specialist Marchand.

In all, the expectations for DeBrusk should be that he is one of the top 6 wingers, producing at 5v5 with slight elevations to reflect his increased role, as well as pushing the needle in the right direction on special teams.

This might be a little on the extreme end, but it’s a valid concern. DeBrusk has been known to be a streaky player, and finding that consistent footing will take a little bit of time. But if he is consistently subpar, then it’s a tough pill to swallow. If DeBrusk finds himself producing only 20 goals and 40 points while riding shotgun alongside Pettersson or filling in with JT Miller, things become rocky. Vancouver is now looking at a $5.5 million average annual value (AAV) winger that won’t move the needle positively offensively and, while decent defensively, isn’t doing enough to offset the sunk value.

Hey, that sounds familiar…

…yeah.

The fear is that the Canucks have paid a solid middle-6 winger like a top-6 winger without getting the top-6 results. Now, the bet that they have made seems reasonable, and there are a good number of reasons to think that DeBrusk will deliver. However, if he performs below those expectations, then Vancouver will be in trouble.

These are pretty straightforward goals for Jake DeBrusk to seek in his first season, pencilled into a top-6 forward group. Vancouver is banking on improvement from DeBrusk with more minutes and better linemates, and with his history of producing in smaller roles, it’s not a bad bet. Hitting 30 goals and 60 points would make DeBrusk a bonafide top 6 winger, and that’s something the Canucks have been looking for, especially alongside Elias Pettersson.

His fit in the Canucks lineup will have to be seen when the first games are played. However, these goals feel reasonable as to what DeBrusk should be aiming for in his first season in Vancouver. If he reaches them, the Canucks are more than happy with their prized free agent signing.