First round picks.

There is no more precious currency to a team in the midst of a self-described ‘youth movement’ than first round picks.

Everyone can now look back with some gratitude that the Vancouver Canucks avoided trading their most recent first rounder and instead selected Braeden Cootes at 15^th overall this past draft. In a season made up mostly of lowlights, the arrival of Cootes was both a highlight and an indication of a brighter future to come.

That’s something the Canucks are going to need more of, and soon. First round picks are difference-makers. Both in terms of their inherent value as prospects-to-be-selected, and in their trade value.

The Canucks are looking to trade some veterans in the near-ish future. And not just any veterans, but some that might run the gamut from ‘fan favourite’ to ‘all-time franchise great.’ Thus far, folks like POHO Jim Rutherford have only stated a general desire to “get younger” and have mentioned a slight preference for developed prospects over unmade picks. But there are certain trades potentially upcoming with which the Canucks essentially need to acquire first round picks, or else leave their fanbase in a deep disappointment. Or worse.

Trade Kiefer Sherwood, and don’t get back a first round pick? That’s a disappointment.

Trade Quinn Hughes, and don’t get back a first round pick? (Or, ideally, multiple?) That’s not just a disappointment, that’s a disaster.

Suffice it to say that if the Canucks enter the 2026 or 2027 Entry Drafts with just their own first rounder, something has gone wrong.

But acquiring first round picks is always easier said than done. And that might be especially true in this 2025-26 regular season.

The NHL standings are, as we’ve mentioned before, as jam-packed as they’ve ever been. We are just under a third of the way through the season, and the number of teams in the playoff race is sort of outrageous.

As of this Wednesday morning writing, we’ve got 13/16 teams in the Eastern Conference either in or within two points of the playoffs. The Western Conference is only slightly looser, with 12/16 teams in or within two points of the playoffs.

On the surface, this might bode well for the Canucks’ chances of getting some good trade returns. More teams in the running means more teams that believe they can compete, and that should lead to a larger pool of suitors for the Canucks’ various veterans. More suitors means more bidding, and the returns should naturally increase through that bidding process.

But that same standings reality may make it more difficult for the Canucks to get first round picks, specifically. Or, at the very least, first round picks that don’t come with some serious restrictions.

We’ll explain. Trading a first round pick mid-season always carries with it some risk, with the primary risk being that a team will tank in the standings post-trade and actually give away a much higher pick than they intended to. It happens all the time, but it seems like an especially likely outcome in this 2025-26 season, where a difference of a couple points can send a team wildly up or wildly down the standings.

Let’s use a random team as an example here. Let’s make it the New York Islanders. Led by Bo Horvat, they’re having a surprisingly successful season, and as of this morning are tied for the last wildcard spot in the East with 31 points. There’s early word that the Islanders might be looking to add veterans to bolster their postseason chances, and that could include looking at some of what Vancouver has to offer.

But trading a first rounder would be exceptionally risky to a team in this mushy middle like the Islanders. A two-point gain would bring these Islanders into the top-three in the Metropolitan Division, sure, and that’s almost certainly what their management is thinking about as they window-shop for vets. But at the same time, a four-point drop is all that separates the Islanders from being in the bottom-ten of the league – and thus having their first round pick wind up being a potential top-ten selection.

In other words, within this season, a team could easily end up trading a pick while it’s slotted somewhere in the late-20s, string together a couple losses, and suddenly find that same pick slotted near the top of the draft.

Now, there are some teams out there that don’t really have to worry about that. Some teams have escaped the mushy middle. The Colorado Avalanche have a .846 record, and the Dallas Stars are at .722. They don’t have to worry about trading first rounders. But then the Avalanche and Stars already traded their 2026 first round picks long ago.

The vast majority of the teams the Canucks will be negotiating with will be in that mushy middle, and may remain there right up until the 2026 Trade Deadline. And that will make acquiring first round picks from those teams all the more tricky.

A somewhat obvious solution is to acquire first round picks with protective clauses. We see this all the time, as in a conditional first rounder with ‘top-ten protection.’ That usually means that the pick is only traded if it falls outside of the top-ten, and if not, the pick slides to a future year.

That’s not necessarily an issue. Sometimes, it can work out well, and occasionally that slid pick can wind up even higher than the one that was protected.

But for the Canucks, to miss out on 2026 picks because they’ve slid to 2027 and 2028 is less than ideal. It kicks the ‘youth movement’ can a few further years down the road, and makes it all that much longer to wait until the Canucks are good again.

In writing all this, we don’t think that the Canucks are going to outright fail to acquire any additional firsts. We’re just saying it might be more difficult, more complicated, and more laden with conditions than most would assume. Are players like Sherwood and Hughes worth firsts in a vacuum? Of course they are. But this isn’t a vacuum, this is the highly-unique 2025-26 NHL regular season. A season in which the first round picks will not come easy.