Vasily Podkolzin is a member of the Vancouver Canucks no longer.
And in his place?
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A fourth round pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft.
Otherwise known, according to many of those in the fanbase reacting to the trade, as “just a fourth round pick.” Or “a measly fourth rounder.” Or “seriously, was that the best they could do?!”
We’re not here today to relitigate the value of the deal itself. What’s done is done, and there’s no use crying over spilled first rounders.
Instead, we’re here to attempt to answer this question: What’s a fourth round pick worth to the Vancouver Canucks, anyway?
We’ll start by attempting to place the pick.
The 2024/25 season has yet to open, and yet certain predictions can already be made. The Edmonton Oilers sent back a fourth rounder in exchange for Podkolzin from the 2025 draft that originally belonged to the Ottawa Senators. There are very few folks out there who believe that the Senators will finish ahead of the Oilers in the final 2024/25 standings – or the Canucks, for that matter.
So, we can at least predict that the pick in question will wind up being higher than the Oilers&#8217; or Canucks’ own fourth round selections.
Ottawa’s fourth round pick this past draft slotted in at 104th overall, just six selections after the close of the third round. So, we could start by stating that, if the standings go similarly next year, Ottawa’s fourth rounder is more akin to a late third, whereas Edmonton’s own fourth rounder might be more akin to an early fifth. There’s some additional value in that.
But additional value on top of what?
Various models will say that an average fourth round selection has between an 8% and a 15% chance of ever skating in 100 or more NHL games. On the surface, the pick’s value can be assessed in this lottery context, like a one-in-ten shot at an NHLer.
But Vancouver fans, specifically, might feel differently about those odds. The fact of the matter is that the Canucks franchise has had truly dismal results in the fourth round, well over and above the already meager chances.
How bad are we talking? Bad enough that we can count by decade.
The Canucks only drafted two players in the fourth round in the 2010s to play NHL games: Jack Rathbone (28 games) and Joseph LaBate (13 games).
The results for fourth rounders drafted in the 2000s were even worse: just Brandon Nolan (6 games).
All the fourth rounders of the ‘90s yielded just one short-term player, as well: goaltender Dieter Kochan (21 games).
You’ve got to go all the way back to the ‘80s to find a player the Canucks drafted in the fourth round who went on to play any sort of significant NHL career. That’s Ronnie Stern, drafted at 70th overall in 1986 (an early third rounder by today’s standards), who went on to play in 638 career NHL games.
That’s a solid career. But it’s also a pick made nearly 40 years ago, and with very little to show from the fourth round since.
Going back past Stern, there are a few more fourth round success stories, including Wendell Young (187 games), Marc Crawford (176 games and a coaching career), Brad Smith (222 games), and Murray Bannerman (289 games).
And then, of course, in the 1974 Amateur Draft, the granddaddy of all Vancouver fourth round picks: Harold Snepsts at 59th overall and his 1033 subsequent games.
But that’s all ancient history. The reality is that the fourth round has been utterly barren for the Canucks for the past three decades running, and that makes it hard to get excited about any future fourth rounder.
We should mention at this point that the Canucks have had some hits past the fourth round, including Gustav Forsling in the fifth (pain!), Ben Hutton in the fifth, Jannik Hansen in the ninth, and Kevin Bieksa in the fifth. If anything, that shows the lack of difference in value between the picks in the later rounds.
And for whatever reason, the fourth round remains a sticking point.
It occurs to us now, however, that this isn’t really a Vancouver draft pick, and that perhaps Ottawa fourth rounders have a better history. In fact, they do!
By the very nature of fourth round picks, the list is still fairly slim pickings. But over the past couple of decades, the Senators have landed Drake Batherson (121st overall in 2017), Jean-Gabriel pageau (96th overall in 2011), Derek Grant (119th overall in 2008), and Ray Emery (99th overall in 2001).
That’s as decent a collection of fourth rounders as one is going to find around the NHL. On that token, folks might feel a little bit better about having an extra Ottawa fourth rounder on hand. It wouldn’t make much sense to feel better off of that, since the pick is now firmly in the hands of Vancouver management, but we won’t begrudge the optimism.
One last consideration on the fourth rounder valuation tour: trade value.
These days, it’s pretty hard to gauge the trade value of a single draft pick. It’s just too circumstantial. But over the past two seasons, fourth rounders have been dealt on their own in exchange for Jonathan Kovacevic, Alexandre Texier, Ty Dellandrea, Chad Ruhwedel, Erik Johnson, Colin Miller, Ilya Lyubushkin, Curtis Lazar, Vlad Namestnikov, Oskar Sundqvist, Mathieu Olivier, and Adin Hill.
There are a bunch of useful NHLers on that list, and that’s to say nothing of the countless package deals that fourth round picks were also part of, including both the Elias Lindholm and Filip Hronek trades made by the Canucks.
Fourth rounders are, if not an exceptionally valuable trade currency, at least a very common one.
And until more of the 2024/25 campaign is played, that’s about all we can say right now about the worth of the fourth round pick the Canucks just obtained in exchange for Vasily Podkolzin.
It’s not much, but it’s not nothing, either.
Sponsored by bet365
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Vasily Podkolzin is a member of the Vancouver Canucks no longer.

And in his place?
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2111" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="329"></div>
&nbsp;

A fourth round pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft.

Otherwise known, according to many of those in the fanbase reacting to the trade, as “just a fourth round pick.” Or “a measly fourth rounder.” Or “seriously, was that the best they could do?!”

We’re not here today to relitigate the value of the deal itself. What’s done is done, and there’s no use crying over spilled first rounders.

Instead, we’re here to attempt to answer this question: What’s a fourth round pick worth to the Vancouver Canucks, anyway?

We’ll start by attempting to place the pick.

The 2024/25 season has yet to open, and yet certain predictions can already be made. The Edmonton Oilers sent back a fourth rounder in exchange for Podkolzin from the 2025 draft that originally belonged to the Ottawa Senators. There are very few folks out there who believe that the Senators will finish ahead of the Oilers in the final 2024/25 standings – or the Canucks, for that matter.

So, we can at least predict that the pick in question will wind up being higher than the Oilers' or Canucks’ own fourth round selections.

Ottawa’s fourth round pick this past draft slotted in at 104th overall, just six selections after the close of the third round. So, we could start by stating that, if the standings go similarly next year, Ottawa’s fourth rounder is more akin to a late third, whereas Edmonton’s own fourth rounder might be more akin to an early fifth. There’s some additional value in that.

But additional value on top of what?

Various models will say that an average fourth round selection has between an 8% and a 15% chance of ever skating in 100 or more NHL games. On the surface, the pick’s value can be assessed in this lottery context, like a one-in-ten shot at an NHLer.

But Vancouver fans, specifically, might feel differently about those odds. The fact of the matter is that the Canucks franchise has had truly dismal results in the fourth round, well over and above the already meager chances.

How bad are we talking? Bad enough that we can count by decade.

The Canucks only drafted two players in the fourth round in the 2010s to play NHL games: Jack Rathbone (28 games) and Joseph LaBate (13 games).

The results for fourth rounders drafted in the 2000s were even worse: just Brandon Nolan (6 games).

All the fourth rounders of the ‘90s yielded just one short-term player, as well: goaltender Dieter Kochan (21 games).

You’ve got to go all the way back to the ‘80s to find a player the Canucks drafted in the fourth round who went on to play any sort of significant NHL career. That’s Ronnie Stern, drafted at 70th overall in 1986 (an early third rounder by today’s standards), who went on to play in 638 career NHL games.

That’s a solid career. But it’s also a pick made nearly 40 years ago, and with very little to show from the fourth round since.

Going back past Stern, there are a few more fourth round success stories, including Wendell Young (187 games), Marc Crawford (176 games and a coaching career), Brad Smith (222 games), and Murray Bannerman (289 games).

And then, of course, in the 1974 Amateur Draft, the granddaddy of all Vancouver fourth round picks: Harold Snepsts at 59th overall and his 1033 subsequent games.

But that’s all ancient history. The reality is that the fourth round has been utterly barren for the Canucks for the past three decades running, and that makes it hard to get excited about any future fourth rounder.

We should mention at this point that the Canucks have had some hits past the fourth round, including Gustav Forsling in the fifth (pain!), Ben Hutton in the fifth, Jannik Hansen in the ninth, and Kevin Bieksa in the fifth. If anything, that shows the lack of difference in value between the picks in the later rounds.

And for whatever reason, the fourth round remains a sticking point.

It occurs to us now, however, that this isn’t really a Vancouver draft pick, and that perhaps Ottawa fourth rounders have a better history. In fact, they do!

By the very nature of fourth round picks, the list is still fairly slim pickings. But over the past couple of decades, the Senators have landed Drake Batherson (121st overall in 2017), Jean-Gabriel pageau (96th overall in 2011), Derek Grant (119th overall in 2008), and Ray Emery (99th overall in 2001).

That’s as decent a collection of fourth rounders as one is going to find around the NHL. On that token, folks might feel a little bit better about having an extra Ottawa fourth rounder on hand. It wouldn’t make much sense to feel better off of that, since the pick is now firmly in the hands of Vancouver management, but we won’t begrudge the optimism.

One last consideration on the fourth rounder valuation tour: trade value.

These days, it’s pretty hard to gauge the trade value of a single draft pick. It’s just too circumstantial. But over the past two seasons, fourth rounders have been dealt on their own in exchange for Jonathan Kovacevic, Alexandre Texier, Ty Dellandrea, Chad Ruhwedel, Erik Johnson, Colin Miller, Ilya Lyubushkin, Curtis Lazar, Vlad Namestnikov, Oskar Sundqvist, Mathieu Olivier, and Adin Hill.

There are a bunch of useful NHLers on that list, and that’s to say nothing of the countless package deals that fourth round picks were also part of, including both the Elias Lindholm and Filip Hronek trades made by the Canucks.

Fourth rounders are, if not an exceptionally valuable trade currency, at least a very common one.

And until more of the 2024/25 campaign is played, that’s about all we can say right now about the worth of the fourth round pick the Canucks just obtained in exchange for Vasily Podkolzin.

It’s not much, but it’s not nothing, either.

Sponsored by bet365
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What’s a fourth round pick worth to the Vancouver Canucks, anyway?

Defenceman Kirill Kudryavtsev during the Vancouver Canucks' 2-0 win over the Edmonton Oilers at the 2024 Young Stars Classic from Penticton, BC

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