The Vancouver Canucks’ rebuild really kicked off in earnest when they made Caleb Malhotra the third overall selection in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft. That pick makes Malhotra a real focal point in Vancouver, and though he’s at least a season away from making his debut, the pressure and expectations are already intense.

Ahead of the draft, we took a few looks at the history of the third overall pick, so as to set a bit of a standard for what the Canucks might be getting. Now that the pick has turned into Malhotra, we thought a similar exercise might be useful to help set up a bit of a timeline of when they might be getting him. It should go without saying that every prospect is unique, and that it’s quite literally impossible to project Malhotra’s personal NHL pathway from here. Simply put, too much of that is going to depend on things that haven’t happened yet.

But other third overalls have already come and gone, and through a reasonable sample size of them, we’re attempting today to answer the question of “When do third overalls typically make (and make an impact on) the NHL?”

2010: Erik Gudbranson at third overall to Florida
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2011-12)
NHL breakout: Draft+5 (2014-15)

The last time we took a history of the third overall pick, we started with Gudbranson, and he’s still as fine a place as any, as both a familiar face and a selection at the start of a decade. As a non-offensive defender, he’s one of the latest to break out and the toughest to define the breakout of on this list.

Gudbranson hit the NHL in his second season after being drafted, and then slowly but surely added minutes and responsibility to his docket. By his Draft+5, he had started to play over 18 minutes a night on a regular basis, and a year after that, he was good enough* to be traded for Jared McCann and a second.

2011: Jonathan Huberdeau at third overall to Florida
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2012-13)
NHL breakout: Draft+4 (2014-15)

Florida’s second consecutive third overall proved a lot more exciting than Gudbranson, but also had a slow development curve. Huberdeau hit the NHL in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, and had a fairly successful rookie campaign of 31 points in 48 games. He slumped as a sophomore, but by 2014-15 he crossed the 50-point threshold, which he would pace above for the next decade. Huberdeau reached some ridiculous heights, and his fall-off has been enormous, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Panthers had a genuine star on their hands for a few years there.

2012: Alex Galchenyuk at third overall to Montreal
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1 (2012-13)
NHL breakout: Draft+3 (2014-15)

Galchenyuk is the first on our list to have played in the NHL right away, joining the Canadiens as soon as the 2012-13 lockout ended. He had a fine rookie campaign, a better sophomore season, and then really broke out in his third year with 20 goals and 46 points. He upped that to 30 goals a year later…and then never reached anything like that again, watching his career dwindle and fizzle out before a legal-issues-related exile to the KHL.

One trend you’ll find on this list is that arriving early isn’t necessarily a good thing…

2013: Jonathan Drouin at third overall to Tampa Bay
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2014-15)
NHL breakout: Draft+4 (2016-17)

Drouin remains a disappointing third overall. But he had a fairly hot start to his career with the Lightning, especially in his Draft+4 campaign, where he scored 21 goals and 53 points in 73 games. The Lightning wisely cashed out at this point, flipping him to Montreal for Mikhail Sergachev before any fall-off could occur.

2014: Leon Draisaitl at third overall to Edmonton
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2015-16)
NHL breakout: Draft+3 (2016-17)

With all due respect to Henrik Sedin and Scott Niedermayer, Draisaitl is the best third overall selection of all-time. It’s a bit surprising, then, that he had such a slow start to his career, relatively speaking. He tried a stint with the Oilers right after being drafted, but was ultimately sent down to Kelowna of the WHL partway through the year. He spent time in the AHL the season after that, but by his Draft+3 he was in the NHL putting up 29 goals and 77 points, and two years after that he had his first 100-point season.

2015: Dylan Strome at third overall to Arizona
Arrived in NHL: Draft+4 (2018-19)
NHL breakout: Draft+4 (2018-19)

Strome has one of the weirdest careers we’ll find on this list. He played most of two seasons with the Erie Otters of the OHL after being drafted, and then most of his Draft+3 in the AHL. Some were already calling him a bust at that point, and the Arizona Coyotes must have agreed, because they flipped him to the Chicago Blackhawks before he even properly arrived in the league.

Strome became a full-timer for the Blackhawks right away and broke out almost immediately, putting up 51 points in his first 58 games for them.

His production tailed off over the next three years, and he was flipped again, this time to Washington, where he enjoyed another breakout. This one, he’s done a better job of maintaining, but still remains one of the most inconsistent top-six players in the league.

2016: Pierre-Luc Dubois at third overall to Columbus
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2017-18)
NHL breakout: Draft+3 (2018-19)

Add Dubois to what has apparently been a trend of third overalls starting hot, hitting a lull, and then eventually righting their careers again. Dubois started great in Winnipeg, really breaking out as a sophomore, before his production fell off and he was traded to Columbus for Patrik Laine. He proved an inconsistent fit for the Blue Jackets, so he was dealt again to the Los Angeles Kings, where he really didn’t fit. He was traded once more, this time to the Washington Capitals, and Dubois has once again found success there…though it’s only a season-and-a-half in. 

2017: Miro Heiskanen at third overall to Dallas
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2018-19)
NHL breakout: Draft+2 (2018-19)

Heiskanen is a clear ‘instant success’ at third overall. Heiskanen spent one more season in the SM-Liiga after being drafted and then immediately stepped on to the Dallas blueline and started taking down a 20+ minute, top-pairing role as a rookie. He’s done so ever since, and has evolved into one of the league’s top overall and most consistent defenders.

2018: Jesperi Kotkaniemi at third overall to Montreal
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1 (2018-19)
NHL breakout: Draft+5 (2022-23)

Kotkaniemi is a player that we can now safely say was rushed to the NHL. He probably had no real business being there in his Draft+1 year – though, as far as his time with the Canadiens is concerned, that was also his peak, with 11 goals and 34 points. It would take him until his Draft+5 season, after he’d already been offer sheeted away by the Carolina Hurricanes, for him to beat those numbers. And even that seems like it might have been a largely one-time deal.

2019: Kirby Dach at third overall to Chicago
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1 (2019-20)
NHL breakout: Draft+4 (2022-23)

One might also reasonably state that Dach was rushed to the NHL before his time, and that’s probably mostly true, but injuries are so much a part of his story that it’s tough to say with certainty. In any case, he joined the Blackhawks right out of the draft and spent most of that first year with them, but then the injuries started to hit in his sophomore season and got right in the way of any development he was showing.

It would take a trade to the Montreal Canadiens for Dach to really break out with 14 goals and 38 points in 58 games, and it honestly feels as though he’s still finding his true game even now. Injuries continue to rob Dach of a lot of time.

2020: Tim Stutzle at third overall to Ottawa
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1 (2020-21)
NHL breakout: Draft+2 (2021-22)

Poor Stutzle. As good as he is, he doesn’t even get the distinction of being the best German drafted at third overall. All the same, he’s an enormously talented player who arrived in the NHL right away, put up a respectable rookie campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, and then virtually doubled his productivity as a sophomore. By his Draft+3, Stutzle had hit 90 points and proven himself as a true top-line centre in the NHL already.

2021: Mason McTavish at third overall to Anaheim
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2022-23)
NHL breakout: Draft+2 (2022-23)

Given that the Ducks just flipped McTavish for a couple late first rounders, it’s hard to remember just how promising his beginnings were. McTavish stepped right into the NHL after winning an OHL championship in his Draft+1 year, and put up 17 goals and 43 points as a rookie. Then, he more or less matched those numbers in 16 fewer games as a sophomore. But then his production seemed to stagnate, a contract holdout occurred, and the relationship began to sour. It remains to be seen how McTavish will play in his new home of St. Louis, but the history on this list suggests that he’ll find a way to right the ship eventually.

2022: Logan Cooley at third overall to Arizona
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2023-24)
NHL breakout: Draft+3 (2024-25)

Cooley’s development and progress has been nice and linear for the Arizona Coyotes-turned-Utah Mammoth. He stepped from the USHL to the NCAA in his Draft+1 year, put up ridiculous numbers, and got nominated for the Hobey Baker as a freshman, and then stepped into the NHL the very next year to hit 20 goals as a rookie. He hit 65 points in 75 games as a sophomore, and though injuries hampered his third NHL season, Cooley seems well on his way to stardom.

2023: Adam Fantilli at third overall to Columbus
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1 (2023-24)
NHL breakout: Draft+2 (2024-25)

Fantilli was one of the more hyped third overall picks in recent memory, and so it’s no surprise that he went straight to the NHL, even if his numbers say he wasn’t quite up to it. Fantilli still managed to build on that rookie campaign, breaking out to 31 goals and 54 points in 82 games as a sophomore. Then, he managed to increase his point total to 59 last year in his Draft+3 season. Most feel as though there’s at least one more big breakout yet to come from Fantilli, and it could come as early as 2026-27.

2024: Beckett Sennecke at third overall to Anaheim
Arrived in NHL: Draft+2 (2025-26)
NHL breakout: Draft+2 (2025-26)

We should be getting into ‘too close to call’ territory, but Sennecke’s quick arrival and success in the NHL makes him easy to talk about all the same. He dominated the OHL in his Draft+1 season (32 points in 18 playoff games) and then stepped right into the NHL this past season with the Ducks, notching 23 goals and 60 points as a rookie, something that would have got more Calder buzz in other years.

A sophomore slump is always possible, but Sennecke appears to have the momentum behind him at this point. 

2025: Anton Frondell at third overall to Chicago
Arrived in NHL: Draft+1.5 (late 2025-26)
NHL breakout: ???

Frondell has only played 12 NHL games to date, showing up at the tail-end of last season, so it’s tough to say if he’s even really ‘made it’ yet. But that’s a start so hot, we’d be surprised if Frondell has anything less than a stellar 2026-27 rookie performance ahead of him. He might not be doing too much looking back from here on out…

While some third overalls do make the NHL right out of the draft, it’s not the norm, and so there’s definitely nothing strange about Malhotra taking his Draft+1 season in the NCAA. In fact, if this limited sample size shows anything, it’s that patience is a virtue when it comes to third overalls, and that early arrivals don’t always pay off in the end.

If Malhotra joins the Canucks at the tail-end of this Draft+1 season, or next year for his Draft+2, he’ll be right about at the average arrival date.

But even if he takes slightly longer, or doesn’t make an immediate impact at that point, don’t lose hope. Some of the best names on this list took longer than that to break out at the NHL level, but they were certainly worth the wait.