Why is there always drama when it comes to this team?
Under the atmosphere of a soap opera, the Vancouver Canucks lost in overtime to the Ottawa Senators by a 5-4 scoreline. While losing to the Sens isn’t as shameful as it once was, given that they are actually in a wildcard playoff berth, it still shouldn’t be the territory that the Canucks find themselves in. It is glaring that the stars are not playing like stars besides Quinn Hughes, and the lack of difference-making high-end talent is costing this group. Again, the depth stepped up, and Vancouver probably stood a good chance of winning this game, but the problem was that they didn’t.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.

Game Flow

The game started off cagey on both sides. Despite a quick opening goal from Ottawa, the period saw the Canucks finish with a 57.14 CF% and 53.03 xGF%, the teams limited to a 0.59-0.52 xGF in the frame. With the teams locked a 2-2 after the first, the Canucks began to try and press themselves an advantage. They would get more raw xGF but finish with a marginally better 53.72 xGF% in the second before really dialling it up to record a full expected goal in the third and a 63.42 xGF% to close it out. They probably should’ve been able to capitalize a bit more, but the stats generally favoured them throughout the night. However, that back-and-forth only ended up giving Ottawa a chance to finish this game in overtime.

Heat Map

For the first time in a good while, the Canucks actually came out on top when it came to the scoring chance battle. In total, the advantage stood at 24-17 for Vancouver at 5v5 with an 11-10 edge in high-danger chances. The hot spots look nearly identical but for good reason, a marginal difference at best. However, it should be pointed out that Vancouver only managed to generate a single high-danger chance on their two power plays, while the Sens potted three high-danger chances on the man advantage, albeit in four opportunities.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Pius Suter decided to try to reclaim his scoring crown in this contest. While he didn’t find the back of the net, the Swiss forward was making plays to get the Canucks back into it whenever they needed a jolt. Suter totalled a 77.27 CF% while primarily playing against Noah Gregor, Tim Stutzle, and Shane Pinto, all of whom are pretty solid forwards in their own rights – not bad competition to be posting some of these numbers.
Corsi Chump: Maybe the Noah Juulsen magic is running out. Last night, the defenceman posted a team-low 31.82 CF%, good enough for a -34.34 CF% rel to team average. The rest of the stats don’t get any prettier – Juulsen finished with a team-worst 27.10 xGF% and was on ice for a 1-4 high-danger chance deficit, giving up two goals at 5v5 in the process. Alongside Soucy, the duo recorded a pretty putrid 27.78 CF% and 29.83 xGF% while playing against some of the Sens’ top six.
xGF: It is bananas that Pius Suter managed to put up a 98.55 xGF% last night. There’s no doing better than that, standing at an absurd 59.31 xGF% rel to team average. Suter finished fourth on the team in xGF with 1.31, but also only faced 0.02 xGA, which was a team best. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that while Suter was on the ice, the Canucks had a 7-1 scoring chance lead and a further 6-1 high-danger chance edge. This kind of performance from Suter is massive and walking away with just one assist doesn’t indicate the quality of play that he turned in last night. Leading the way in raw xGF was Quinn Hughes, who was determined to drag the Canucks to a victory by generating 1.89 xGF. For one player to nearly have two full expected goals is a massive contribution and further underlines the quality that Hughes has been consistently bringing this year.
GSAx: It was one of those games for Kevin Lankinen. Ottawa put up a total of 3.24 xGF last night, meaning that with five goals against, the Finnish netminder finished comfortably in the negatives with a -1.76 GSAx. Now, four of the five goals came from high-danger chances with the remaining one being a middle-danger chance. That’s not the worst distribution in the world, and this Canucks team has been relying a lot on their goalies to try and get them wins. Lankinen should get some leniency from time to time.

Statistical Musings

Where Miller needs to be better: The reunion of the PDG-Miller-Boeser line hasn’t gone according to plan in the last two matchups. Against the Sens last night, the trio were the worst Canucks forward line at 5v5 by a good margin. They were the only line to post a CF% below 50%, on ice for two goals against, and gave up a team-worst 0.86 xGA and 27.49 xGF%. It wasn’t as if they were grabbing the horns of the matchup duties either – Miller barely played against Brady Tkachuk and saw his deployment evenly distributed across all of the Senators’ top nine. Simply put, he should be taking full advantage of his matchups and producing when the Canucks need him to.
Under the radar third-pairing: Beneath the noise of all of this stands Derek Forbort and Vincent Desharnais, who posted a very respectable stat line in a pretty high-scoring affair. Against decent competition in the form of Nick Cousins, Pinto, and Stutzle, the duo had a 50.00 CF% and 55.28 xGF%. While the only two scoring chances they faced were recorded as high-danger, they only did face two scoring chances against without a single 5v5 goal against. That isn’t an easy feat, and considering where these two defencemen started off the season, this should be taken as a win for them.

As a team

CF% – 51.82% HDCF% – 46.15% xGF% – 47.68%
It was another frustrating outcome for the Canucks. While they were able to score more and generate more chances last night, the breakdowns in play continue to cost them against their opposition. Their so-called stars didn’t manage to make much of an impact on the scoresheet, and in a game like this, where their forward depth stepped up to the plate once more and where Hughes and Boeser were putting up points, it doesn’t make sense for Elias Pettersson and JT Miller not to produce. If they could’ve gotten something going between the two of them, perhaps it would be the Canucks on the right side of the result for this one.
Vancouver welcomes Macklin Celebrini home tomorrow as the San Jose Sharks roll into town for their next matchup.
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