incredibly random, but last night marked 1,000 regular season games for #Canucks since start of 2013-14 season. Team has played .513 hockey over that span and sits 23rd in league in points. 454 wins in those 1000 games
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The Statsies: Tolopilo steals over 2 expected goals in Canucks’ shootout loss to Leafs

Photo credit: © Bob Frid-Imagn Images
By Michael Liu
Feb 1, 2026, 15:47 EST
At least they tried.
The Vancouver Canucks couldn’t quite manage to hang onto their slim lead, dropping a 3-2 shootout loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. After a decent enough first, they were unable to really get much going, allowing the momentum to slip the way of the visitors and eventually push the game into overtime. Nikita Tolopilo was fighting for his life — and managed to get the Canucks their loser point — but outside of that, this team didn’t do much else to help their netminder.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.
Game Flow

The first period was relatively even enough. Both teams were going back and forth, with the Leafs able to snag the advantage in the end ever so slightly to finish off the first. The second was actually Vancouver’s best period statistically, generating a 48.94 CF% share and 49.26 xGF% split, with a 7-4 edge in high-danger chances. However, that all got erased by the third period Toronto put on, where they pummeled the Canucks badly. A 7-2 high-danger chance lead for the Leafs only tells part of the story, as the xGF battle stood at 1.91-0.39 at 5v5 action.
Heat Map

Given how one-sided the expected goals were, one might’ve expected to see a worse heat map than this one in front of us. At 5v5, despite Toronto holding a 38-20 overall scoring chance lead, the Leafs’ high-danger chance margin was just 14-10. The bigger hot spot obviously is to be expected, but the density of the hot spot for the Leafs wasn’t all that much more than the Canucks. Again, it’s not much consolation given how many chances and expected goals Vancouver was bleeding, but it’s very much a case of “hey, it could be worse.”
Individual Advanced Stats
Corsi Champ: Drew O’Connor led all Canucks with a 48.39 CF%, which actually was 16.10 CF% rel to team average. That should show the difference in puck possession when it came to the two teams, and just how bad Vancouver’s average was when O’Connor’s mark is that much above average. The winger finished tied for 4th on the roster in xGF, posting a 0.74, while putting up the 5th-best xGF% on the team with a 45.65. O’Connor also managed a positive split in high-danger chances, sitting at 5-3, which isn’t an easy feat given how the night turned out for the entire team.
Maybe the Canucks can build around Drew O'Connor.
Corsi Chump: Evander Kane is not doing much favours for his trade value, that’s for sure. Coming in stone-cold dead-last with a 22.50 CF%, the winger was putrid in pretty much every statistical category across the board. His 0.17 xGF was the second-lowest on the team, he faced the second-most xGA at 1.65, his 9.34 xGF% only barely beat out Conor Garland’s 9.22 xGF% for second-worst on the team, and he was on ice for a 2-18 hole in scoring chances. Yet, by some miracle, Kane picked up an assist last night. Hopefully other teams are just looking at his counting stats when scouting him.
Wicked effort by Willander to get into this play. He's low in the DZ when the Rielly turnover happens and just pops up into the play to take a great feed from Evander Kane and score his 4th of the season
xGF: On the opposite end of the expected goals spectrum from Kane, Elias Pettersson the defencemen led all Canuck skaters with a 59.14 xGF%, sitting at a massive 41.31 xGF% rel to team average. He just ever so slightly finished below an even split in overall 5v5 scoring chances at 12-13, but managed to hold a 7-4 high-danger chance lead for the Canucks. The 1.25 xGF was also a team-best, showing that Pettersson wasn’t just benefitting from really good defensive numbers, managing to generate a decent amount of offence with his ice time.
#RebuildMoments D-Petey 👺🔨
#RebuildMoments D-Petey👺🔨
GSAx: Take a bow, Nikita Tolopilo. The Belarusian was pretty much the only reason why the Canucks escaped with a point, as he was facing a full firing squad towards the end of the game. With the Leafs generating a total of 4.02 xGF in all 60 minutes of regulation and 5 minutes of overtime, Tolopilo only gave up 2 middle-danger goals against to finish with a 2.02 GSAx. He picked up right where he left off in that team shutout performance against the Ducks, and stayed perfect when facing down 9 high-danger shots. It’s an impressive performance no matter how you cut it, and Tolopilo seems to have more than earned the playing time he’s been getting.
I don't care if he lost, that was my favorite game from a Canucks goaltender this season. Nikita Tolopilo fought for every save and to borrow a Bieksa saying, looked like he was playing with a cigarette in his mouth.
Statistical Musings
Big time role for the rookie: Tom Willander’s rookie campaign has been about steady growth in the face of a very rocky season for the Canucks. From a rougher preseason to cementing himself in the top 4, the young Swede has been playing like a stud for Vancouver on the back end. Against the Leafs, Willander found himself paired up with Marcus Pettersson and tasked with going up against the Tavares-Nylander combo, which wasn’t an easy assignment whatsoever. Their numbers were rough, as one would expect due to the opposition and deployment situations, but what stood out was that the high-danger chance tilt stood only at 1-5 for the Leafs. They bent and didn’t break, and it’s impressive that Willander was tossed out into this role already. Hopefully, he can keep this up and become a steadfast presence for the Canucks going forth.
Anyone else thinking the Canucks could have something special on and off the ice in Tom Willander?
As a team
CF% – 37.41% HDCF% – 45.45% xGF% – 39.11%
The Canucks most probably didn’t deserve to win this game. They were in it for a hot while, but didn’t have the ability to keep up with the Leafs when all was said and done. Tolopilo’s performance aside, it was good to see some of the younger players step up, while also frustrating to see vets that should be contributing not really all that engaged. But again, that’s why this team is the worst team in the NHL – and should remain so until the end of the season. Foote’s decisions definitely don’t help in making this Canucks team all that much better, that’s for sure.
Vancouver heads on the road, entering Salt Lake City tomorrow to take on the Utah Mammoth.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com
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Breaking News
- Wagner’s Weekly: Does Foote need to play the Canucks’ kids more?
- Canucks: Foote offers up explanation for Lekkerimäki’s 3rd period benching vs. Leafs
- The Statsies: Tolopilo steals over 2 expected goals in Canucks’ shootout loss to Leafs
- Canucks: Is there a potential Kevin Lankinen trade out there, and when might it happen?
- The Stanchies: Nikita Tolopilo steals the show in Canucks’ shootout loss to Leafs
