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The Statsies: A weirdly evenly-matched game in Canucks loss to Senators
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Photo credit: © Bob Frid-Imagn Images
Michael Liu
Mar 10, 2026, 12:53 EDT
That… was a pretty good game.
The Vancouver Canucks dropped a 2-0 decision to the Ottawa Senators. Statistically though, these two teams were neck and neck, with the slimmest of margins between them. It was honestly a pretty gutsy defeat, and one that kept fans in their seats all the way until the end. The Canucks didn’t roll over at any point, and that’s all the building blocks one could possibly ask for in this tank run right into the basement of the league.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.

Game Flow

The game flow very much hung in the balance throughout this entire contest. The only period where the Canucks were truly on the back foot was the first, where they accumulated a 33.33 CF% and 24.48 xGF%, sitting in a 2-8 scoring chance deficit and 2-5 high-danger chance hole. That being said, the total xGF sat only at 0.24-0.73 for the Sens, so all things considered, it could’ve been worse. After that, it was pretty much a 50/50 split the entire way. Vancouver managed to out-high-danger-chance Ottawa 4-2 throughout the rest of the game, showing just how low-event the last two periods ended up becoming. It was a scrap all the way to the end, with the Canucks not giving up too much at all in this loss.

Heat Map

The heat map was evenly matched as well. In total, the Senators held an 18-13 lead in overall chances while managing a slim 7-6 edge in high-danger chances. Their hot spot in the crease area was a little larger than the Canucks’, but it wasn’t all that much denser. Vancouver did a fine job defending as a whole, keeping Ottawa limited in terms of what they could generate. While the Canucks could use a lot of work offensively, it’s at least nice not to get rolled over by the Sens.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Debuting for the Canucks last night, Curtis Douglas led the team with 75.00 CF%, albeit in some very, very limited minutes. With a lot of the game taking place on special teams, the towering fourth-liner didn’t see too much ice time, but managed to hold his head above water in the couple of shifts that he got. Douglas was on ice for an even 1-1 scoring chance split, none of them high-danger, with a 56.26 xGF% to his name. It’ll be interesting to see if he manages to establish himself as a full-time bottom-six player in the NHL – that size of his will always make him an intriguing player.
Corsi Chump: Marcus Pettersson went squarely up against Tim Stützle and saw his numbers tank as a result. Bringing up the rear of the team with a 16.67 CF%, the Swede was put into a complete shutdown role and did a decent job at it, all things considered. Despite being out there for a 19.66 xGF% and a 2-11 scoring chance deficit, Pettersson limited the grade-A opportunities against to just three high-danger chances, while turning his only two scoring chances into high-danger chances as well. There were no goals against during his TOI, which is no easy feat considering the quality of competition that he was facing.
xGF: Filip Hronek led the way in the xGF% department, putting up a 66.84 with a hefty 8-5 lead in scoring chances and 3-2 high-danger chance margin. This was as the Czech defender saw most of his action against Brady Tkachuk’s line, enjoying a 73.91 CF% (the second-best on the team) during that entire span. Hronek’s 0.61 xGF at 5v5 action trailed only Zeev Buium’s 0.69, who was rocking his minutes with Victor Mancini for a change against the Senators.
GSAx: Kevin Lankinen battled hard in this contest. Facing down a total of 2.48 xGF against him, the only thing that got past the Finnish netminder was a single high-danger chance for a 1.48 GSAx. That’s a hefty contribution between the pipes, giving the Canucks more than their fair share of a chance to win this game. Obviously, it helped that his team managed to limit the Senators’ true grade-A opportunities, but it definitely would’ve been helpful to get run support as well.

Statistical Musings

Another big night from the fourth line: Max Sasson – Teddy Blueger – Linus Karlsson have been on a good run as a trio lately. Against the Senators last night, they were probably Vancouver’s statistically most impactful unit. Together, they put up the second-best CF% at 62.50 with a team-best 0.24 xGF to their name as well. They were the only line that managed to record three scoring chances for at 5v5 play, while managing an even split of high-danger chances at 1-1. Again, it’s great for Sasson-Blueger-Karlsson, but they probably shouldn’t be a team’s best line on any given night.

As a team

CF% – 43.68% HDCF% – 38.89% xGF% – 27.80%
There are absolutely worse losses than this one last night. The Canucks have been putting on an exhibition in that regard all season, so a result like this, a game like this, certainly isn’t bad at all. They kept it close, they kept it competitive, and they didn’t roll over and get pumped at home. That alone is an improvement compared to the first couple of games coming out of the Olympic break, and they continue to solidify their 32nd overall finish.
Vancouver gets a little time off before welcoming the Nashville Predators to town on Thursday.
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