How did it end up like this?
The Vancouver Canucks
blew a 3-0 and 4-1 lead to the Calgary Flames, losing in overtime by a 6-5 scoreline. It started so well – the Canucks played one of the best first periods in recent memory, absolutely dominating the Flames who found themselves reeling. But, after that,
Vancouver took their foot off the gas and let Calgary climb step by step back into this one. It’s unlike last year, where they would close out games relentlessly – but again, it is just the first game of the season. Tocchet won’t be happy and the players know they have to be better than last night.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
Game Flow
The first period might be some of the best hockey that Vancouver has played in recent memory. Yes, there were things that went their way, but they were taking that in stride, playing with energy and putting Calgary right on their back heels. The stats back up that domination – Vancouver handily had a 67.86 CF% with a 1.16-0.49 xGF lead, good enough for a 70.27 xGF% share all at 5v5. The only nitpick here would be that for all of that advantage that the Canucks had, they only had 4 high-danger chances at even strength, while the Flames were able to create 3 high-danger chances for themselves.
After that though, it was all downhill – literally. The intermission pretty much kneecapped any momentum that the Canucks had and saw Calgary flip the script in what was an uninspired second period. The visitors posted a 66.67 CF% and an 81.19 xGF% share. Yes, that’s the right number – Vancouver went from 70.27 xGF% in the first period to just a measly 18.81 xGF%. The Canucks only managed to produce 0.13 xGF in that second period, leading to the Flames being able to turn the tides.
So as the third opened, despite Vancouver having their biggest lead in HDCF (5-1) and best xGF% share (72.67), the damage was done because they took their foot off the gas, allowing Calgary to score against the flow of the play because they weren’t able to capitalize on the efforts from the first.
Heat Map
The book might be out on Arturs Silovs. We’ll dive more into the stats for the Latvian netminder later, but from the heat map last night, Vancouver shouldn’t have given up 6 goals. The scoring chances stood at 31-24 in favour of the home team, with a further 14-8 high-danger chance advantage. Just from looking at the hot spot that each team established, it was clear that the Canucks had a lot more higher quality looks than the Flames, doing pretty well to capitalize on them. But, Calgary simply didn’t need to be scoring from in tight, as it appeared.
Individual Advanced Stats
Corsi Champ: Teddy Blueger had a quiet but solid game. The former Minnesota State Maverick was a hound on the Canucks’ forecheck and penalty kill, leading the team with a 64.29 CF% on the night. While the Latvian was on the ice, Vancouver posted an 11-5 scoring chance advantage with a 5-2 lead in high-danger chances, Blueger finding himself with a 68.20 xGF% share as well. This was coming with just 25.00% of offensive zone shift starts, showing that Tocchet was icing him from the defensive zone more often than not and still producing solid results. The only thing that Blueger didn’t do was tangibly contribute to the offence – though goal-scoring wasn’t Vancouver’s issue last night.
Corsi Chump: On the flipside, Vincent Desharnais wasn’t particularly impressive. Paired with Derek Forbort, the duo were easily some of the worst players that the Canucks had last night, with Desharnais posting a team-low 31.58 CF%. His xGF of 0.18 was the second-lowest on the team, while he gave up a 1-4 deficit in scoring chances, with one of them being high-danger. Even though Vancouver had the last change, Desharnais played most of his minutes against Calgary’s top line for one reason or another. That resulted in him being on ice for two goals against.
xGF: Nils Höglander, fresh off signing his extension, had a good season debut. The Swede led the Canucks with an 88.84 xGF% share, on ice for a 9-3 lead in scoring chances with a further 5-0 advantage in high-danger chances. Höglander also picked up an assist on the night, which was a due reward for 1.05 xGF, the third-best mark in the Vancouver lineup. It was a little odd that he didn’t get as much deployment in the latter parts of the second and early third, but Höglander made the most of the ice time that he got. Leading the way in raw xGF was none other than Quinn Hughes, who looked like an absolute dog in midseason form. A 1.38 xGF came off the backs of a 16-8 scoring chance differential, on ice for a team-high 7 high-danger chances to get Vancouver motoring the entire time.
GSAx: This one is a rough one. Arturs Silovs did not have a good night, as the Calgary Flames were able to figure out what the Edmonton Oilers did – the Latvian has issues tracking the puck from distance. The visitors only posted a 2.03 xGF, meaning that Silovs finished the night with a -3.97 GSAx. While three goals came from high-danger chances, Calgary only had 5 of them – meaning that not only was Silovs not great at denying those high-danger chances, but he was also giving up just as many goals from middle and low-danger chances. Those are saves that he’ll probably want to make, and the Canucks need him to make. Granted, Silovs didn’t get much help from the defence in front of him, but there’s no escaping the fact that he simply needs to be better. Vancouver provided him with plenty of goal support.
Statistical Musings
Aatu Räty’s weirdly short season debut: With Pius Suter not dressing for last night’s game, presumably to make sure he’s 100%, Aatu Räty drew into the lineup and didn’t seem too out of place. The Finn had the 6th-best CF% on the team (55.56) and an 84.39 xGF%, the second-best share behind Höglander, recording an assist while also having the best faceoff win percentage on the entire team amongst centers (Danton Heinen stepped in to go 2/2 on the dot). The only thing that wasn’t quite right with Räty’s night was that he saw, by far, the least ice time in the Canucks roster. Tocchet only played the center 8:46 last night excluding the powerplays that dominated the first, and this was despite some decent results. It’s understandable that he wants to keep a young Räty on a tighter leash, but there also didn’t seem to be a glaring reason why he wasn’t playing more.
Live by the shot, die by the shot: Another player that saw his ice time cut drastically as the game went on was Daniel Sprong. The winger came in heralded for his shot, something that was fully displayed on the opening goal of the night:
However, after that moment, it also became clear just why the Canucks were able to get him for as cheaply as they did. Sprong played sparingly in the second and third periods, finishing with the second-lowest ice-time on the roster. This was for a good reason, as Sprong finished with the second-lowest xGF% share (30.32). Tocchet still needs to have him build those defensive habits that he wants his team to play with, and it was evident the winger still needed to catch up.
Elias Pettersson’s quiet night: EP40’s lacklustre playoff performance was understandable, dealing with patellar tendinopathy. However, with the performance that he had last night, the Swede is not doing a lot to buck the critics off of his back. Playing primarily against the likes of Mikael Backlund and Nazem Kadri, Pettersson’s numbers were disappointing. His 44.44 CF% was the fourth-worst on the lineup, while his 46.95 xGF% was the 5th-worst. This was coming against opposition that he should be playing better against, and while Petey still ended up with an assist, he’s got to be better if Vancouver wants to repeat their performance from last year.
Forward acquisitions doing their job: This was the first time that Vancouver saw the likes of Kiefer Sherwood, Danton Heinen, and Jake DeBrusk in a regular season contest, and all of them did the jobs that they were brought in for. Sherwood fit in perfectly alongside Blueger and Aman to eat up fourth-line minutes, bringing a hard, heavy presence to play against.
DeBrusk looked like a good fit in the top 6, setting up a wonderful powerplay goal from Brock Boeser and fitting in to create chances in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, his even-strength statistics were dragged down as a result of Pettersson’s plays, but there was lots of good signs to be building off of.
Heinen was getting into the right places at the right time, having more than a few good chances that he just couldn’t bury on. The whole Heinen-Miller-Boeser line couldn’t really get much ice time early as a result of the powerplays and fighting major, but they fit together well in a game that saw Miller play with the heart and emotion of a leader.
As a team
CF% – 50.86% HDCF% – 63.64% xGF% – 57.31%
Vancouver should’ve won this game. They should’ve been able to keep their foot on the gas and drive this one home after an electric first period. Unfortunately, that was anything but the case, as they let Calgary back in and build momentum, striking against the sample size of the game to even things up. Miller’s last-minute goal to tie things up salvaged a point for the Canucks, but make no mistake – this was a contest that the Canucks deserved to lose, and probably needed to lose. It’ll serve as a big lesson going forth.
Vancouver hosts Matvei Michkov and the Philadelphia Flyers at home on Friday for their next contest.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com