In the first part of this series, I contemplated how the Canucks could achieve their “rebuild on the fly” goal of winning now while incrementally moving towards becoming a contender again. I argued that the Canucks should look to move Chris Higgins, the rights to Shawn Matthias, and 2016 UFA’s Radim Vrbata, Kevin Bieksa, and Dan Hamhuis in exchange for draft picks (2 x late 1sts, 2 x 2nds, a 5th and a prospect) and $16.6M in cap space. 

In the second part of the series, I took a look at free agents who could help fill the gaps left by the theoretical trades of Hamhuis and Bieksa. Specifically, any number of Barret Jackman, Zbynek Michalek, Cody Franson, and David Schlemko. 

In this section, I’ll address the holes left up front. 

Without Vrbata, Matthias and Higgins in the picture, we’ll need to address goal scoring and experience in the top six. 

The Kings have three key players to lock up this summer: Andrej Sekera, Tyler Toffoli, and Justin Williams. In the analytics community, 33-year old Justin Williams is tongue-in-cheekly known as the Corsi God, and for good reason. Per War-on-Ice.com, his goals above replacement rating is among the best in the league at 14.87, and as you can see below he does almost everything at a first line level: 

Beyond the impressive possession metrics, Williams has consistently hovered around the 20 goal mark, which will be much needed with so many young, unproven forwards in the mix next year. Perhaps most impressive is his ability to improve both possession and scoring chance rates of all of his talented LA King team mates: 

Expected Deal Structure: $4-5M on a 2-3 year deal. 

The Capitals have a ton of RFA/UFAs to ink this year, including Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Mike Green, Curtis Glencross, Jay Beagle, Eric Fehr, and Ward, so it’s reasonable to think that the 34 year old Ward may come available. Ward has a goals above replacement rating of 8.4 thanks to strong defensive play, and still provides top 6 production across most key metrics: 

He’s not quite as impressive as the Corsi god, but few players are: 

Expected Deal Structure: $3M per year on 2 year deal. 

The Sens have a number of key free agents to sign this year, including Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Andrew Hammond, Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, and Patrick Wiercioch. The Sens are an internal budget team, so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to pay Condra what he can get on the open market. In terms of goals above replacement, Condra scores high at 9.7, once again thanks to strong defense: 

Here’s a look at Condra’s possession and scoring chance statistics: 

Expected Deal Structure: $2.5M per year on 3 year deal. 

The Wild have a number of key players to re-sign, including Devan Dubnyk, Mikael Granlund, and Kyle Brodziak. Since coming over to the Wild, Bergenheim hasn’t made much of an impact, so I don’t expect the Wild to prioritize allocating cap space to him over these other players. Bergenheim had a goals above replacement rating of 4.49 last year, and proved to be an effective top 6 forward over the past few seasons: 

Here are his possession and scoring chance statistics: 

Expected Deal Structure: $3.5M per year on 3 year deal. 

With the majority of cap space being prioritized in a top 4 defensemen and a top 6 winger, there’s not a lot of money left over for a 4th center, so I’ll be looking at the a name a bit lower down on the depth chart. 

This may come as a bit of a surprise, but Richardson was serviceable in a 3rd line role and was a very effective penalty killer for the Canucks last year. He’s also undergoing ankle surgery, which will likely have a pretty negative impact on his value come July 1. If Horvat and Bonino are able to hold down the 2C and 3C spots effectively, which I expect they will, Richardson will be more than capable of holding down the 4C spot, assuming he remains healthy. Here is how he rates across key metrics: 

Here are his possession and scoring chance statistics: 

Expected Deal Structure: $1.2M on a 2 year deal

So how does it look if we were to piece this all together? For arguments sake, let’s assume my preferred options of Williams, Franson and Ward are off the table, so I’ve assembled the roster based on players I think are pretty reasonable options: Michalek, Schlemko, Bergenheim, and Richardson. With these additions, the roster would looks like this: 

The roster above would come in at an estimated $69M, leaving a bit of breathing room under the $71.5M cap. While this roster doesn’t wow you with star power, it’s not too much of a stretch to think that Michalek and Schlemko would likely be an improvement over Hamhuis and Bieksa, or at least not more than a marginal drop-off. Up front, we haven’t replaced the 30 goals Vrbata scored last year, but some of that should be offset by Bergenheim, a (hopefully) healthy Kassian, as well as a full year of Baertschi, Kenins, Vey or potentially one of Virtanen or Shinkaruk if they force their way onto the roster. 

Is this a cup winner? No, but it should be a reasonably competitive team, and remember the goal is to remain competitive while rebuilding on the fly. In the next section I’ll focus on who the Canucks should target with that treasure trove of draft picks we theoretically landed by moving Bieksa, Hamhuis, Vrbata, the rights to Matthias and Higgins.