At this point, everybody seems to agree that Vasily Podkolzin, the “steal” of a player that fell to the Vancouver Canucks at 10th overall of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, is never quite going to live up to his draft billing.
But how did we get here? And what is Podkolzin’s updated NHL ceiling? In today’s edition of Random Canucks Thought(s), we’ll be diving into these questions about the 23-year-old Russian ahead of the biggest training camp of his career.
What scouts were saying about Podkolzin in his draft year
As the 2019 draft in Vancouver approached, the consensus seemed to have Podkolzin locked in as a top five or ten pick, with some even putting him in the number three spot behind consensus top two picks Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. Here’s what some public scouts were saying about Podkolzin ahead of the draft:
An absolute pit bull. Podkolzin offers high-end offensive awareness, lightning quick hands and a confrontational style. Despite some muted point totals coming from his club team, he’s made a habit of showing up in a big way on the international stage. — Cam Robinson
His acceleration is above average, he’s smart and tenacious with and without the puck, and he’s got an excellent wrist shot. Don’t let the bias against Russian players fool you – if Podkolzin’s drafted by a team that’s dedicated to his development, he projects to be a solid NHLer. — Hannah Stuart
One of the most controversial prospects for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft is Vasili Podkolzin. He doesn’t have earth-shattering numbers but it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t like his tools… What my eyes are telling me about Podkolzin is that he’s a power winger who works and competes extremely hard. He never quits on a play even when others do. If you don’t want to give your 100% playing against him, he’s going to win. He’s a well-rounded player who doesn’t cheat for offense but has lots of offensive abilities. He has good leadership qualities, and he leads by example on the ice. He’s capable of energizing the entire team with his play. — Jokke Nevalainen
And straight from the most important scout at the time…
“His value at #10 was too much to pass up. He hits on so many things that we’re looking for in terms of his compete level and his size and the determination to go with the skill.”
-Former Canucks director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett.
It seemed like while nobody could quite pin down what Podkolzin was going to be, virtually everyone agreed that he had the makeup of a player who could have ended up as one of the best players of this draft class.
Instead, Podkolzin currently ranks 22nd in NHL games played, 21st in goals, and 23rd in overall points.
What went wrong? 
For Podkolzin, it certainly seems like the two years he spent in the KHL with SKA St. Petersburg did more harm than good for his development. With SKA, Podkolzin struggled to move up the lineup, and with already limited ice time, Podkolzin — who, to his credit, has long been a player mature beyond his years — always seemed to be focused on making the safe play instead of taking chances so as not to fall out of the lineup completely.
The Canucks’ hands were certainly tied when it came to this situation, but it was a bad situation for Podkolzin to be in, nonetheless.
Upon signing his ELC with the Canucks, Podkolzin went from one dysfunctional situation to another, as he bounced all around the Canucks’ subpar NHL lineup during the 2021-22 season en route to tallying 14 points and 12 assists through 79 games. It was a fine rookie season, but one where Podkolzin had to navigate all the drama that surrounded the 2021 Canucks all while dealing with fluctuating ice times and roles.
The season after, Podkolzin was getting to know his second NHL head coach in as many years when the Canucks fired Bruce Boudreau and replaced him with Rick Tocchet. Podkolzin spent time in both the AHL and NHL, putting up uninspiring numbers in both leagues.
And ahead of this season, despite being given an opportunity with JT Miller and Brock Boeser right from day one of training camp, Podkolzin was among the Canucks’ first cuts from camp. He had a clear directive to go be “the guy” in Abbotsford, and catch up on some clearly lost development time.
In Abbotsford and in the 19 NHL games he played last season, Podkolzin looked like a steady player who was sure to make sure he kept mistakes to a minimum. Unfortuantely, that also meant that he had a tendency to play a rather uninspiring game that has everyone wanting more. More offence, more in-your-face play. Just more.
But what more does Podkolzin have to give? What’s his new ceiling, and what’s his new floor?
Updating expectations and identifying updated NHL ceiling
As a prospect ages, their ceiling and their floor closes in until we discover who they are as a player. For Podkolzin, his ceiling was once thought to be as high as a player such as Mark Stone — a complete player capable of producing at or near a point-per-game clip, and certainly capable of playing on a top line.
At 23, Podkolzin’s new ceiling would likely be somewhere around the 40-50 point mark, and those players certainly bring value to a team. Let’s play a quick game of “guess that player” using our friends over at hockeyDB.com.
Can you guess this player?
If Podkolzin’s career looked anything like this at this point, it’d be a smashing success.
The player above is Brandon Saad, for those who played the game.
Now, this new ceiling is just that: a ceiling. It is not a prediction that Podkolzin will become a consistent NHL middle six producer like Saad, rather, it’s admitting that even if everything goes right for Podkolzin, it feels like a safe bet to say the end result of that won’t be a point per game player.
In our recent goals and expectations article, we stressed the importance of this being a big season and a big training camp for Podkolzin. Jeff Paterson recently featured Podkolzin in his article highlighting Canucks who were in “make or break” territory.
While a player’s ceiling lowers, their floor often doesn’t raise. Rather, they move closer to their floor as the ceiling closes in on them. Does this analogy make sense? Maybe not, but the point is, just establishing himself as an NHL regular bottom six forward at this point would be a success for Podkolzin. Even if he doesn’t reach the ceiling of chipping in on offence from the middle six, there’s still a chance he emerges as that trusted bottom six winger as soon as this season.
Now it’s up to him to push as close as he can towards his ceiling and far away from his floor.
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