The Vancouver Canucks continue their six-game Eastern road swing with a date with the Pittsburgh Penguins Wednesday night. With two consecutive wins to start the trip, Vancouver is now 8-1-0 on the road this season and sits five points behind the Vegas Golden Knights in the division with two games in hand.

The Penguins enter this matchup with the worst winning percentage in the Eastern Conference (.391) and are just 4-6-2 on home ice.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It was far from the prettiest victory for the Canucks last night over Boston, but they were able to limit the Bruins high quality looks enough for Kevin Lankinen to earn a 32-save shutout. The Canucks authored plenty of similar victories last season, and it is far to say that Rick Tocchet’s side has proven to be more comfortable in that type of game script than an average team.

The Penguins present a drastically different matchup to the Canucks. Pittsburgh has been the league’s worst side from a defensive perspective, but do generate a decent amount of chances at the other end.

The Canucks have played only one back-to-back so far this season and fell 5-3 to the Predators in that matchup. I’ll continue to argue that the Canucks have much to prove in matchups versus higher-quality competition, but they have done an excellent job of garnering the points they are supposed to versus softer opponents.

In the month of November, the Canucks have played to an expected goal share of 46.16%, which is slightly concerning. I’m in agreement that there are intricacies to the Canucks game under Tocchet, particularly defensively, that may allow it to outperform expected rates over a larger sample.

Still, the average Cup winner since 2014 is averaging seventh in the league in expected goal share in the regular season, so it is far to think that the Canucks will need to control more of the overall run of play to be viewed as a Cup Contender once again. And it is certainly possible they will start generating more looks when Brock Boeser and JT Miller are both back in the lineup.

Brock Boeser skated 17:11 in his return. While it was a quiet night with zero points and zero shots on goal, his performance was nothing to be concerned about.

Arturs Silovs is expected to get the start for the Canucks in this back-to-back spot. He holds a .857 save percentage (S%) and 3.91 goals against average (GAA) in six appearances this season.

The Penguins have allowed 3.96 goals against per game this season, which is the worst mark in the NHL. They have allowed 33.17 shots on goal per 60, and 3.49 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60). It’s been visibly clear how greatly they have struggled to suppress quality chances off the rush and that they continue to offer costly mistakes in the key areas of the ice.

Kris Letang’s play has fallen off drastically, and Ryan Graves and Matt Grzelyck have both proven to be disastrous signings by GM Kyle Dubas. Based on Mike Sullivan’s coaching statement this morning, Graves and Grzelcyk are both going to be healthy scratches in this matchup, which will allow Owen Pickering and Ryan Shea to draw into the lineup.

Based on how badly Graves and Gryzelcyk have struggled, it is reasonable to think this new look could actually raise the Penguins’ level moving forward.

The Penguins took a flier bringing in Philip Tomasino from the Nashville Predators this week, and he appears likely to get a top-six role in this matchup alongside Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Beauvillier. Tomasino was a 24th overall pick in 2019 but has struggled to find consistency at the NHL level.

Tristan Jarry has been confirmed as the Penguins starter in this matchup. His shaky form has been one of the many problems ailing the Penguins this season, as he holds a .869 S% and 4.41 GAA across six games played.

The Penguins catch the Canucks in a favourable spot here, with Vancouver skating in night two of a back-to-back and with its third-string goaltender likely to start. The Canucks have also not been entirely dominant of late, and for those reasons, I’m not interested in backing Vancouver at -115.

The Penguins’ defensive play has been a train wreck all season long. However, those struggles don’t seem likely to stop anytime soon. While I do think there’s a chance the Penguins hang enough goals up to win this matchup, I don’t think we’ll see the Canucks struggle to get chances the way they did last night in Boston.

Hughes has stayed under 2.5 shots on goal in two straight matchups and four of the last five, which seems pretty surprising as his play has looked more or less the same as it did early on this season. He played just 5:12 before being ejected in Ottawa, and the Canucks generated only 15 shots last night.

This looks like a good spot to back Hughes’ shot volume bouncing back, though. He still ranks first on the Canucks in shot attempts per 60, and I think the price for him to record over 2.5 shots on goal is suddenly better than it should be considering the opponent.