The Vancouver Canucks will play the front end of a critical back-to-back when they host the Montreal Canadiens Tuesday evening, prior to a critical matchup in Calgary Wednesday.

While tomorrow’s matchup versus the Calgary Flames could potentially mean a four-point swing in the Wild Card race, the Canucks will have their hands full in tonight’s matchup. The Canadiens are 13-10-3 since January 1st and are hanging around in a wide-open Eastern Conference playoff chase as a result.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While tomorrow’s matchup is of higher importance to the Canucks, they better not take a matchup versus a scrappy Canadiens side lightly or it likely won’t end with the desired result.

Montreal has proven to be a tougher out than oddsmakers expected this season and is on pace to comfortably cash the over on its preseason betting total of 77.5 points. With a record of 30-33 straight up this season, a $100 bettor would be up $882 backing the Canadiens to win in every game. They are also 24-29 as underdogs, yielding a +16% return on investment (ROI).

Since January 1st the Canadiens have played to a points percentage of .558, which ranks 15th in the NHL, eight spots above the Canucks.

They continue to receive excellent play in goal from Samuel Montembeault and Jakob Dobes, who have combined for a +21.3 GSAx rating this season. Montembeault has been confirmed as tonight’s starter and holds a .900 save percentage and a +15.5 GSAx rating this season.

Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens hold a 51.48% expected goal share in even-strength play and have also offered solid special teams play.

Their power play has succeeded on 24.1% over the last 10 games, and the top unit offers pretty convincing personnel. Lane Hutson has done a great job quarterbacking the top unit, offering great composure under pressure at the point and the ability to help with clean zone entries. Cole Caufield is one of the game’s purest goal-scorers, and Nick Suzuki does an excellent job working the bumper.

Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens’ penalty kill has also succeeded on 85.7% of opportunities, which has helped them win a number of closely contested matchups.

Montreal could not solve Dustin Wolf in its last matchup on Saturday, as Wolf stopped all 26 shots he faced and was selected as the game’s First Star. The Canadiens generated 2.33 xGF and allowed 1.53 xGA.

Patrik Laine missed Saturday’s matchup with flu-like symptoms and is slated to miss this matchup as well. Kaiden Guhle and Kirby Dach will remain sidelined due to injury.

The Canucks were unable to generate much offence versus an elite Dallas Stars team on Sunday, and will be looking to respond in a less daunting matchup Tuesday.

Since December 1st the Canucks have scored just 2.44 goals per game in 41 contests, which ranks 31st in the NHL. Their 2.86 xGF/60 rating ranks 28th in that span. That’s half a season of play in which the Canucks have been one of the league’s worst teams offensively.

When you look at how putrid the Canucks’ offensive play has been, it really illustrates just how excellent Quinn Hughes has been. Hughes has registered 60 points in 50 games played, while Brock Boeser ranks second on the team with 38 points in 56 games. I’d be curious to see comparable examples of a defender leading his team in points-per-game by such a wide margin – if they exist.

Hughes was sighted at morning skate in a non-contract jersey. He alternated in and out of line rushes but will not return tonight. The Canucks skated with a top pairing of Elias Pettersson (D) and Filip Hronek, a second pairing of Marcus Pettersson and Tyler Myers, and a third pair of Derek Forbort and Victor Mancini.

It’s a point that has been beaten to death by the media this season, but the Canucks simply need more impactful offensive play from Pettersson (F) right now, especially with Hughes sidelined. Another point that seems to be widely agreed upon by all observers is that Pettersson needs to be a little more shot-minded, as he possesses one of the heaviest one-timers in the league and a high-quality wrister.

Head coach Rick Tocchet has made an interesting decision to start number-one goaltender Kevin Lankinen in this matchup, as tomorrow night’s game versus Calgary is far more important. Time will tell if the plan is to start Lankinen in both legs of the back-to-back or go with backup Arturs Silovs tomorrow.

Lankinen holds a +0.7 GSAx and a .903 save percentage in 39 appearances this season.

The Canadiens have been one of the most profitable underdogs in the NHL this season, and their path to success in this matchup looks quite reasonable. The Canucks have been one of the league’s worst offences for a four month sample of play, and could struggle to create separation on the scoreboard facing an elite goaltender in Montembeault.

This will likely be a closely contested matchup, and at +127, the Canadiens would be my lean in terms of a betting side.

This does look like a good opportunity to try and buy-low on Pettersson from a shot volume perspective. It’s been visually apparent that he’s looking to shoot more over the last three matchups, and the numbers agree, as he has 14 attempts in that span. Surely, Tocchet will encourage this change of mentality, and the Canadiens are a fairly middling side in terms of shot suppression.

At -148, I see value backing Pettersson to record two or more shots on goal.