The Vancouver Canucks will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host the Dallas Stars Sunday evening.
Thanks to their recent acquisitions of Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund, as well as a league-leading 19-7-1 record since January 1st, the Stars are now priced as the second favourite to win the Stanley Cup this season. The Canucks are catching them at a decent time, however, as they may be without top centre Roope Hintz, and will be playing leg two of a back-to-back.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
Stars vs. Canucks odds
- Stars Moneyline Odds: -140
- Canucks Moneyline Odds: +126
- Puck Line Odds: Stars -1.5 (+175), Canucks +1.5 (-201)
- Game Total: Over 5.5 (-119), Under 5.5 (+106)
*Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change. Use promo code: Puck @ sign-up.
Dallas Stars
The Stars were generally viewed as big deadline day winners, as they were ultimately able to bring in the most significant player available in Rantanen. Not only were they able to bring in Rantanen, but they also secured Wyatt Johnston to a team-friendly five-year deal, benefitting from Texas’ favourable state-tax percentage.
The Stars are currently priced at +646 to win the Stanley Cup on Pinnacle, which is the best number available among reputable sportsbooks. They are also betting favourites to win the Western Conference at +260, which tells you just how high oddsmakers’ power-rating of the Stars truly is, as the number is that short despite the fact that Dallas is staring down a nightmare first-round matchup versus the Colorado Avalanche.
Here’s how the Stars will likely line up at full health:
Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Mikko Rantanen
Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Mikael Granlund
Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Evgeni Dadonov
Oskar Back – Sam Steel – Mavrik Bourque
Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Mikael Granlund
Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Evgeni Dadonov
Oskar Back – Sam Steel – Mavrik Bourque
Miro Heiskanen -Ilya Lyubushkin
Thomas Harley-Cody Ceci
Esa Lindell- Matt Dumba
Thomas Harley-Cody Ceci
Esa Lindell- Matt Dumba
The only real concern among the Stars’ roster is the right-side defenders, as Cody Ceci and Matt Dumba have been well below average NHL skaters over the last two seasons.
Since Miro Heiskanen’s injury on January 28th, the Stars have still managed a stellar record of 9-3-1. They have scored 4.46 goals for per game in that span and allowed 3.15 goals against per game. They hold an expected goal share of 51.77% in that span and hold an absurd shooting percentage of 16.41. While that mark will tick down over a larger sample, it is reasonable to think one of the league’s most stacked offensive units will finish chances at a higher-than-average rate the rest of the way.
Hintz left Saturday’s matchup after catching a puck in the face and is considered day-to-day. If he is unable to play in this matchup, it will likely mean Johnston is promoted to the top line, a role he is more than capable of handling effectively.
Casey DeSmith will likely get the start after serving as the backup in yesterday’s matchup. He holds a +8.3 GSAx rating and a .912 save percentage in 19 appearances this season.
Vancouver Canucks
While they haven’t always won in the most convincing fashion recently, the Canucks have managed a strong 9-6-1 record over the last 16 matchups, which has kept them in a solid position to earn a playoff berth.
It has been somewhat easy to criticize the teams flaws and personnel issues this season, something I’ve done often in these articles, and the mainstream Canucks media has done consistently. Still, it does seem important to point out that the majority of Vancouver’s skaters seem fully committed to the team’s success and are still willing to play hard for head coach Rick Tocchet.
It seems fair to view the idea that the Canucks are still offering the correct level of compete as both a positive and a negative. While the team clearly wants that final playoff spot, it’s hard to say how they will fare if they get it due to a combination of tactical and personnel issues.
The Canucks enter off of a 3-1 victory over the struggling Minnesota Wild, as Kevin Lankinen was named the game’s first star for stopping 37-of-38 shots faced. It wasn’t the prettiest win by any means, which has been a common theme among many of the Canucks nine wins over the last 16 games. They have scored 2.50 goals per game while allowing 2.56 against, and hold an expected goal share of 49.92% in that span.
One major positive from Friday’s matchup was Elias Pettersson’s power play tally, a vintage ‘Petey’ blast, something Canucks fans would love to see more of. While it’s easy for pundits and fans to criticize players from the comfort of the couch, it does seem hard to believe Pettersson has not found a way to utilize his elite shooting abilities more this season. Hopefully, this kind of shot is something we see more of in the near future.
Quinn Hughes is still considered day-to-day ahead of this matchup, and his status is currently unclear. He is the only notable skater remaining on the IR, while Thatcher Demko is still set to be sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Best bets for Stars vs. Canucks
Though they weren’t sharp in last night’s loss in Edmonton, the Stars still look to be a full-blown juggernaut. They feature the deepest top nine in hockey, which has powered them to a league-leading record over the last third of the season. They have significantly more offensive upside than the Canucks, and for that reason these team’s don’t look all that close right now.
DeSmith has also been one of the best backups in the league, sporting a 2.50 GAA to go alongside his 17-11-6 record. Based on all data points this season, he has been comparably strong to Lankinen at worst, if not arguably even a better option.
The Canucks should show plenty of urgency in this matchup, as they look to capitalize on a favourable scheduling spot. Their lack of offensive upside could be quite a concern, though, as they take on a Stars side capable of finishing chances at a high rate.
I’m surprised the Stars aren’t a bigger favourite here, and see value backing Dallas at -145 or better if Hintz is sidelined. If Hintz plays, I would bet Dallas to -150.
Best bet: Dallas Stars Moneyline -140 (Pinnacle, Play to -145)