The Vancouver Canucks will look to rebound in a tough road matchup versus the Washington Capitals Wednesday evening. The Canucks gave away a critical point with an ugly third-period collapse on Monday but still hold one of the best road records in the NHL at 11-4-3 this season.

The Capitals have also fallen into a rut after their red-hot start to the season, with a record of 5-4-2 over the last 11 games. They hold a record of 13-4-3 on home ice this season and are 16-2-2 in games started by goaltender Logan Thompson, who is expected to play in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

If you want to take an optimistic outlook towards the Canucks’ 5-4 overtime loss in Montreal on Monday, you could say that the team showed some resiliency in coming back from one goal down twice in that contest, particularly after the game looked to be completely blown late in the third.

A more pessimistic viewpoint would be to point out that once the Canucks managed to secure a 3-1 lead, thanks to some opportunistic play in front of goal, they were horrible defensively, allowing the Canadiens to score three goals in succession. The Canucks have struggled mightily to generate meaningful offensive outputs of late, and when they have generated multi-goal leads, they have done a poor job of protecting them.

One clear positive from Monday’s game was J.T. Miller’s four-point night, which came playing alongside rookie Jonathan Lekkerimäki and Brock Boeser. Lekkerimäki had a goal and an assist and has put up 2.05 points per 60 this season in a small sample of 87 minutes.

Quinn Hughes made a strong return to play with two points in 26:15 of time on ice despite playing with an ailing hand, which is obviously far from fully healed.

The Canucks allowed 12 high-danger scoring chances against and generated six of their own in Monday’s matchup. They generated just 20 shots on goal, which brought their average down to 23.39 since December 1st, which is the lowest mark in the NHL.

Elias Pettersson could return from his five-game absence in this matchup and is considered a game-time decision. Filip Hronek has been assigned to Abbotsford of the AHL for a conditioning stint and should offer a much-needed boost to the blue line in the near future.

Kevin Lankinen has been confirmed as the starting goalie in this matchup. He holds a .904% save percentage and 2.63 GAA in 27 games played this season.

While a 5-4-2 run is far from horrible, considering the Capitals’ process in those games, it has clearly been their worst stretch of play of the season thus far. The Capitals’ power play has been on fire of late, which has helped to cover up for a significant downswing in terms of team effectiveness at even strength.

Over the last 11 games, the Capitals hold an expected goal share of just 45.27% at even strength and have been outshot 1.93 per 60 minutes of play.

Due to a combination of injuries and illnesses, the Capitals will potentially have a different-looking lineup in tonight’s game.

One change that head coach Spencer Carbery noted he was considering was moving Aliaksei Protas back onto the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome.

Strome and Ovechkin have struggled at even strength in recent matchups while playing alongside Taylor Raddysh, but Carbery is likely feeling a little hesitant to break up his highly dominant second line of Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Tom Wilson.

While many of the Capitals’ other forwards play has dropped off since the team’s excellent start to the season, Protas and Dubois have remained consistently excellent of late at both ends of the ice. Dubois has put up 10 points over the last 10 games, while Protas has nine in the same span.

The Capitals’ current second line of Protas, Dubois, and Wilson has outscored opponents 10-3 and holds a 62.7% expected goal share.

Thompson has been confirmed as the starting netminder in this matchup. He holds a .916% save percentage and 2.39 GAA in 20 games played this season.

The Capitals’ play has tailed off considerably for a relatively large sample, particularly from a defensive perspective, as they have allowed a ton of chances against in a number of soft matchups of late. As noted by coach Carbery today, they are working through some injuries and illnesses, and tonight’s final lineup is up in the air.

While the Canucks clearly have some flaws right now, they do still look to be the side holding more value in this matchup at their current price of +155.

Miller was good to us in recording four shots versus the Predators on Saturday to cash his shot prop at +145, and I sure wish that I went back to that pick on Monday instead of authoring a humiliating take to bet the game to go under six goals. Miller had arguably his best performance of the season in Monday’s matchup, recording four points, three shots, and a plus-3 rating.

I’m surprised the price for Miller to record three shots has held at +145 after his outputs versus the Predators and Canadiens, given that the Capitals have been average at best at suppressing shots recently.

Miller has cashed over 2.5 shots in four of the last six games, which has made bets on over 2.5 shots highly profitable given that it has been priced at +140 or better. The fact that Miller’s shot volume was far higher in each of the last two seasons is also relevant, and this looks like a great spot to keep backing this prop before the number comes down closer to what we are used to seeing.