For the second time this season, the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks will face off at Rogers Arena. The Predators won the last matchup 5-3, a game which came in a favourable spot for the Predators as the Canucks were playing night two of a back-to-back, as will be the case once again in Friday’s matchup.

In the time since the last matchup between these teams, the Predators have played to a record of 5-10-4, while the Canucks hold a record of 9-6-5 in that span. Despite the differing records between these teams, the Predators are heavy -180 favourites after closing as +105 underdogs in the previous matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

After a strong 2023-24 campaign followed by some big-name signings in free agency, the Predators are on pace to finish historically far below their preseason betting total of 100.5 points. With just 29 points in 38 games, the Predators are far from a guarantee to even hit the 70-point mark.

While Predators fans are likely rooting for losses at this point in hopes of claiming a high draft pick, it is possible that we have seen the worst of it from a results perspective. While nobody is trying to tell you the Preds are good, there are some areas in which they appear to be due for positive regression, which is part of the reason the betting market is higher on them in this matchup than many people might expect.

The Predators hold a record of just 2-7 in games decided past regulation in 3-on-3 or shootout. They have played to an expected goal share of 49.29% across all strengths this season, which ranks 18th in the league, and makes them the greatest outlier in terms of actual results compared to expected. Their shooting percentage of just 6.19% ranks last in the league, a margin of almost 1%.

Those factors have helped make things as bad as they are, but Nashville still would not have lived up to the preseason expectations with a higher shooting percentage or better results in the novelty settlements.

Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei are all far from the players they once were at their primes. Stamkos and Marchessault have been more productive recently but have still not been overly dominant in even-strength play.

GM Barry Trotz then made some more debatable moves by waiving Dante Fabbro and trading Alexandre Carrier to Montreal for Justin Barron and Philip Tomasino to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a fourth-round pick.

The Predators will have a different-looking lineup for this game. They have recalled former first-round draft picks Ozzy Wiesblatt, Vinnie Hinostroza, and defender Spencer Stastney from the AHL for this matchup.

Defender Adam Wilsby is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup. His surprisingly strong play in his initial 15 games in the NHL this season had been one of the few positives surrounding the Predators this season. Defender Jeremy Lauzon is also listed as day-to-day.

Juuse Saros is expected to get the start in goal in this matchup. He has been effective, posting a .903% save percentage, +2.3 GSAx, and 2.82 GAA in 30 games played this season.

It wasn’t the prettiest win you will ever see, specifically as the Canucks blew yet another multi-goal lead in the third period, but they were able to earn two desperately needed points Thursday night, and right now, that’s all that matters. The Seattle Kraken held an 11-7 edge in high-danger chances and outshot the Canucks 27 to 22.

Kevin Lankinen was solid in relief of Thatcher Demko, who left the game midway through the second period after an awkward collision with Noah Juulsen. Lankinen has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup and will get the opportunity to best his former side. In 25 games played this season, Lankinen holds a +0.6 GSAx rating and a .907% save percentage.

Head coach Rick Tocchet opted to offer defenceman Guillaume Brisebois his first NHL game of the season Thursday, and he recorded a plus-1 rating in 15:31 of time on ice playing alongside Tyler Myers. Myers and Brisebois held a 50.76% expected goal share in just over 14 minutes of even-strength play together.

While the idea of offering a new defender in Brisebois a chance to play seemed more than fair, it’s difficult to say that bringing Erik Brännström is the best way to do it. While Brannstrom has some soft moments in the defensive zone, he can move the puck better than the rest of the defenders remaining in Vancouver’s lineup, which is arguably the biggest reason the team is struggling to generate offence right now.

Elias Pettersson and captain Quinn Hughes are both reportedly close to returning but will not play in this matchup.

The Predators are catching the Canucks in a highly favourable spot in this matchup, as the home team will limp into this back-to-back spot without some key pieces.

However, Vancouver’s current concerns look to be weighted correctly, thanks to the significant line movement ahead of this game, and I certainly can’t get on board with backing the Preds at a price of -180.

Miller’s play has not been consistent recently, and he was not overly good in Thursday’s game, including taking two penalties which Tocchet surely was not happy with. He was rightfully awarded less even-strength ice time than every other Canuck in the lineup.

It’s no secret that Miller’s shot volume is way down this season and that his overall game hasn’t been great, either. Given how long the number for Miller to record three or more shots on goal in this matchup is, I think this is an interesting spot to buy on the idea that he will bounce back with a much more spirited effort. Prior to last night, Miller did generate 11 shots on goal in the previous three outings, and at +145, I think it’s an angle worth targeting.

Considering all the noise surrounding Miller and Petterson right now, you’d think this is Miller’s time to step up and show his worth. That’s not been the case so far, but I don’t hate the idea of backing a fierce competitor like Miller to bring a dominant performance in this matchup.