The Vancouver Canucks entered the holiday break on a high note, as their most important skaters were productive in a 4-3 win over the San Jose Sharks. Elias Pettersson scored two goals versus San Jose and was named the game’s First Star. Unfortunately, it looks as though the Canucks will once again be without some key pieces Saturday, as Pettersson and Captain Quinn Hughes are reportedly doubtful to play in this matchup versus the Seattle Kraken.

Meanwhile, the Kraken will look to reset after entering the holiday break amid a five-game losing skid. Seattle is 7-11-0 on the road this season and currently sits in 25th place in the standings.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It’s been a disappointing start to the season for the Kraken, which has been punctuated by their recent five-game losing skid. All five of those losses have come inside of regulation, with a combined goal differential of minus-18.

Entering the season, the hope was that new head coach Dan Bylsma could help the team move forward offensively after it generated only 2.61 goals per game in the 2023-24 season. The Kraken have scored 2.78 goals per game this season but have taken steps backward defensively, both from an analytical perspective and where it counts (3.11 goals against per game).

GM Ron Hextall dished out a pair of eye-popping contracts to Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson in the offseason, which looked questionable in the summer and are looking worse currently. Stephenson, in particular, has been a disaster, as he has posted just 23 points in 35 games while being consistently exposed in the defensive zone. He leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, which is seemingly only justified because of his $6.25 million cap hit.

The Kraken made a logical bet in trading defender Will Borgen for forward Kaapo Kakko on December 19th. Borgen was expendable based on the depth of the Kraken’s defensive core, and a high-upside forward looks to be exactly what the team currently needs. With Captain Jordan Eberle out long-term due to injury and Andre Burakovsky sidelined with illness, Kakko will likely receive another opportunity to play top-six minutes in this matchup.

The Kraken feature a quality defensive corps and did receive a short-term boost when highly underrated defender Vince Dunn returned to the lineup on November 30th. Contrary to the Canucks though, the upside of Seattle’s blue line is often masked by the lack of talent atop the offensive core.

Seattle will be without number-one goaltender Joey Daccord in this matchup after Daccord suffered an injury last Saturday versus Colorado, which means we should see Philipp Grubauer get the start. Grubauer has been drastically less effective than Daccord this season, as Grubauer holds a -7.3 GSAx and .877 save percentage in 13 appearances, while Daccord holds a +9.2 GSAx and .912 save percentage in 23 games played. The two also held comparable splits in 2023-24.

While the Canucks are catching a big break in facing Grubauer instead of Daccord, that advantage will be more than negated if Hughes and Pettersson ultimately miss this game.

Considering what Hughes’ potential absence from the lineup actually means for the Canucks might be the greatest argument towards him being the current Norris Trophy favourite. The Canucks’ practiced with a top defensive pairing of Derek Forbort and Tyler Myers yesterday. In a tiny sample of 17.9 minutes together this season, Forbort and Myers hold an expected goal share of 18.2% and generated only 0.69 expected goals for per 60.

In the month of December, the Canucks’ hold a record of 5-3-4 and have scored just 3.00 goals per game while allowing 3.08 goals against. They have allowed 28.3 shots against per game and hold an expected goal share of just 48.73%. Their offensive play has certainly looked quite flat at times, and a big part of the problem continues to be a lack of quality blue-liners capable of helping to drive offensive play.

Thatcher Demko has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. In his first five starts of the season, Demko has played to a .889% save percentage and 3.14 GAA.

Many factors add layers of volatility to this matchup, making betting sides look somewhat dicey. The Kraken obviously enter on a horrid losing streak, but four of those games were against red-hot teams, and they have had a nightmare schedule overall in December.

The Kraken may be able to stabilize to some extent as they get into a more manageable slate of opponents. However, Grubauer has been one of the worst goaltenders in the league, so it’s hard to bank on that idea when he starts.

The Canucks’ defensive corps looks to be a significant concern if Hughes does miss this matchup, and while Pettersson has underperformed expectations this season, his absence is meaningful too. They are likely to receive superior goaltending, though, as obviously Demko holds far more upside than Grubauer.

Overall, the prices on sides in this game look quite fair to me. It shouldn’t be surprising if the Kraken hold a fair share of the overall run of play, especially given their underdog price tag, but I’m not sold on backing Grubauer in a matchup against Demko.

At +230, I do see value in backing Jared McCann to score at anytime. His recent dip in production has coincided with a number of matchups versus high-quality defensive teams, and a matchup versus the Canucks’ without Hughes gives him a great chance to get on the score sheet.