The Vancouver Canucks will look to build upon their NHL-best 10-2-1 road record in a matchup versus the red-hot Utah Hockey Club. Utah has closed some ground in the playoff race thanks to its current 6-2-2 run and enters this matchup four points behind the Canucks in the playoff race.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
Canucks vs. Hockey Club odds
- Canucks Moneyline Odds: +105
- Hockey Club Moneyline Odds: -125
- Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-250), Hockey Club -1.5 (+205)
- Game Total: Over 5.5 -125, Under 5.5 +105
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks recent Jekyll-and-Hyde run continued in their quality win over the Colorado Avalanche on Monday. They alternated wins and losses during their six-game home stand, finishing with a record of 3-2-1.
Thatcher Demko had his best start of the season versus Colorado, as he stopped 30-of-31 shots faced in the 3-1 victory. He now holds a -0.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx) rating and a .881 save percentage (S%) this season. Sportsnet’s Dan Murphy reported that Demko was doing the starters routine in the Canucks’ optional skate this morning, indicating he will get the start tonight.
Over the last 15 games the Canucks hold an expected goal share of just 46.22%, but have managed a strong record of 8-5-2. There is some argument to be made that head coach Rick Tocchet’s team limits the number of true breakdowns in key areas of the ice, which allows it to perform analytical expectations. However, it still remains somewhat clear this team has not played like a true Stanley Cup contender of late.
While I’m not personally a modeller and do believe in the merit of the ‘eye test,’ the last ten Stanley Cup-winning teams have averaged below seventh place in terms of regular season expected goal share.
One other potential knock on the Canucks start to the season is that they have played the sixth easiest schedule in the league based upon opponents’ average place in the standings.
There has been plenty of talk in the market about the disappointing play of forwards such as Elias Pettersson, but the greater issue on the roster still looks to be the lack of quality players on the back end. It makes sense that GM Patrik Allvin is exploring options to bring in a quality defender in the trade market, though they are certainly a tough commodity to acquire.
Utah Hockey Club
Utah has been in strong form of late, and the chances it could steal a playoff berth this season seem to be flying a little under the radar. While it is not far back in the race, it’s beginning to be fairly apparent that it would have to overtake either the Colorado Avalanche or the Canucks in order to garner a berth. For that reason, this is a highly significant game, and MoneyPuck’s model projects a regulation win would mean a 5% boost to the playoff chances of either team.
During their 6-2-2 run, Utah holds an expected goal share of 50.47% and an excellent goal differential of plus-12. As Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and Mattias Maccelli have continued to develop, it is suddenly featuring a fairly deep group of quality forwards, which has helped it hold a fairly strong share of the overall run of play.
Similar to the Canucks, the greatest knock on the team currently is a lack of depth on the back end. Utah is dealing with a pair of long-term injuries to a pair of quality defenders in Sean Durzi and John Marino. As a result, Ian Cole and Olli Maatta are taking on bigger roles than originally planned.
It continues to receive excellent goaltending from Karel Vejmelka, who holds a +13.3 GSAx rating and .915 S% in 17 appearances this season. Vejmelka has been confirmed as Utah’s starting goaltender in this matchup.
Since moving Alex Kerfoot off the top powerplay unit in favour of Cooley on November 23rd, Utah’s power play has succeeded on 36.7% of attempts. Clayton Keller is one of the best players with the man advantage in the league, and the power play runs through him off the half-wall. Dylan Guenther has become one of the better shooters in the league working off the left circle, and Nick Schmaltz provides a good secondary option working the bumper spot.
Best bets for Canucks vs. Utah Hockey Club
The Canucks have been a tough team to handicap recently as they have struggled to find consistency, but have managed some strong wins over high-quality opponents. Still, there is a strong case that Utah has been in better form than the Canucks recently, and I’m not surprised to see prices in this game have moved towards Utah as a result.
Vancouver’s lack of defensive depth continues to lead to them allowing an above-average number of chances against. The current price of -125 looks accurate in terms of sides, and I don’t see value in betting on either team to win this matchup.
There does look to be value backing Utah’s leading scorer in Guenther to record over 2.5 shots on goal. Guenther leads the team with 22.31 shot attempts per 60. Guenther features one of the best releases in the league and does a good job of finding pockets of space to get shots off. His one-timer from the left circle will always be the ‘A’ look on Utah’s top power play unit, and that group has done a good job of moving the puck effectively to help set that shot up.
At -105 odds, I see value in backing Guenther to record three shots on goal in a matchup versus a Canucks team that has allowed an above-average amount of shots on goal of late, and it shouldn’t hurt that Tocchet will likely still look to deploy Hughes’ pairing versus the Clayton Keller’s line as much as possible.
Best bet: Dylan Guenther Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -105 (Sports Interaction)