The Vancouver Canucks will continue their six-game road trip with a date in Detroit Sunday afternoon. Despite not looking overly dominant, they have played to a record of 3-1 to start the road trip and are now 9-2-0 on the road this season.

The Detroit Red Wings entered this season looking to snap an eight-year playoff drought but have disappointed in the early going and look likely to miss the playoffs once again. If that is the case and the Buffalo Sabres find their way to the playoffs, Detroit would own the league’s longest playoff drought.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

You have to give the Canucks depleted roster plenty of credit for achieving a record of 12-7-3, but it’s also fair to question whether or not their process will continue to allow them to win games at this rate moving forward.

They have proven to have a knack for grinding out relatively evenly looking games under coach Rick Tocchet over the last several seasons. However, that’s a small positive to point towards, looking at how heavily they have been out-chanced of late. Over the last four games, Vancouver’s opponents hold a 54-24 edge in high-danger chances.

Even if you want to argue the Canucks suppress true ‘Grade-A’ chances better than most and perhaps create more dangerous shots than other teams, it’s hard to say they are playing as well as their record suggests.

Over the last 10 games, the Canucks rank last in the league with a 39.05% expected goal share. They rank fourth in shooting percentage in that span but still hold a goal differential of negative two. That sample of games also includes just two matchups versus teams currently holding a playoff spot.

Absences from the lineup have certainly played a role in the Canucks lesser form, as many of those games were without some combination of JT Miller and Brock Boeser.

Tocchet opted to move Tyler Myers into Filip Hronek’s role on the top pairing versus Buffalo. That duo did fare well in that game, as Hughes, in particular, was spectacular once again. That leaves a highly convincing second pairing of Carson Soucy and Noah Juulsen though. The Canucks second pairing played to a 15.6% expected goal share in that matchup and a minus-one rating.

Kevin Lankinen will likely get the start in this matchup. He has played to a .909 save percentage (S%) and 2.57 goals against average (GAA) in 16 games this season and has been fantastic in earning a 3-0-0 record this road trip.

The Red Wings’ underlying numbers suggested even a 41-32-9 record last season was favourable to their overall game, and despite high shooting percentages and solid goaltending, they held a goal differential of just +4. GM Steve Yzerman didn’t look to have done enough this summer for them to push back into the playoffs this season, and they are off to an unconvincing start.

Veteran defenders Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry and Justin Holl were not effective last season, and it seemed unlikely that Detroit would find much success at even strength with them still occupying three of the six spots on the back end.

Key young players Lucas Raymond and Simon Edvinsson have taken notable steps forward this season, which has helped to cover up for some other concerns on the roster.

The Red Wings feature one of the league’s best power plays (27.9% success rate) and have some high-end offensive talents up front to help finish the few chances the team does generate at a high rate.

Over the last five games, the Red Wings have played to an expected goal share of just 45.87% at even strength and have generally struggled to carry more of the overall run of play this season.

Cam Talbot has been surprisingly excellent in goal and has emerged as the clear top option on a roster which featured five goaltenders in the mix entering camp. Talbot has played to a +10.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx) rating and .916 S% in 16 appearances this season.

The Canucks recent process has been far from convincing, and even their modest record of 5-5-0 over the last 10 might be overselling their recent form to some extent. I’ll continue to note that they do have some excuses for their recent play, and winning is what’s most important, but they look overvalued for the time being in the betting market.

The Red Wings have offered somewhat improved play of late, and have earned a solid 3-2-0 mark over the last five. While I’m not going to oversell a somewhat flawed Wings’ roster, this game does look to be closer to a coin flip than the current odds suggest.

At +120, I see value backing the Wings versus a Canucks side that has been heavily out-chanced in the opening four games of this road trip.