Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers.
Oilers vs. Canucks Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -168
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline: +151
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+150), Canucks +1.5 (-170)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -103, Under -109)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (29-16 SU, 18-27 ATS, 20-24-1 O/U)
Edmonton will try to win its fifth game in a row on Saturday night when it concludes a three-game road trip against the Canucks in Vancouver. The Oilers haven’t made it easy on themselves, but they’ve found ways to win games, overcoming three multi-goal deficits in their last four outings.
Thursday’s 4-3 win over the Avalanche was perhaps Edmonton’s most impressive victory, as the Oilers erased a three-goal deficit while playing the second half of a back-to-back. Saturday’s game will mark Edmonton’s third contest in four days, but the Canucks have only had one day of rest heading into the matchup.
Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid is heating up, tallying four goals in his last three games. That’s bad news for the Canucks, as McDavid has historically dominated Vancouver, amassing 24 goals and 43 assists in 41 career games against them (he has -115 odds at Pinnacle to record over 1.5 points in this matchup). It doesn’t help that head coach Kris Knoblauch has loaded the top line with McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman skating together.
Draisaitl hasn’t scored in four games, marking his longest drought of the season, but since Dec. 5, he has notched 14 goals and 21 assists across 20 games, including six points in his last four outings. Like McDavid, Draisaitl has also thrived against Vancouver, registering 23 goals and 31 assists in 46 career games versus the Canucks. Meanwhile, Hyman has posted two goals and nine assists in 11 regular-season games against Vancouver since joining the Oilers in 2021-22.
Stuart Skinner is also rounding into form, recording two shutouts in his last four appearances. The 26-year-old has suffered only three regulation losses since the start of December. According to Evolving Hockey, Skinner ranks eighth in goals saved above expected among goaltenders who have faced at least 500 unblocked shot attempts since Dec. 1.
On the injury front, Edmonton could be without Viktor Arvidsson for Saturday’s matchup, but he has yet to be ruled out for the game.
Handicapping the Canucks (19-25 SU, 19-25 ATS, 23-20-1 O/U)
Vancouver has fallen out of a playoff spot, posting a 2-5-3 record in its last 10 games. The Canucks began a three-game homestand with an embarrassing 5-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. Although they’ve played seven of their last 10 games on the road, their performance at home hasn’t been much better, as they hold a 7-9-6 record at Rogers Arena this season.
Thatcher Demko’s return hasn’t provided the impact many expected. The 29-year-old has won just two of his nine appearances since making his season debut on Dec. 10, holding opponents to two or fewer goals in only two of those starts. Demko stopped 11 of 12 shots on Jan. 2 before leaving the game due to injury, but his performance hasn’t been consistent.
It’s unclear whether Demko will start on Saturday after allowing five goals on 21 shots against the Kings, but head coach Rick Tocchet may opt to turn to Kevin Lankinen in this critical divisional matchup. Lankinen ranks 14th in goals saved above expected among goaltenders who have faced at least 1,000 unblocked shot attempts this season.
Vancouver ranks 23rd in expected goals percentage and 21st in shot attempts percentage at even strength year-to-date. However, their underlying metrics have worsened since the holiday break. In all situations, the Canucks rank 28th in expected goals and 24th in shot attempts over their last 10 games.
The Canucks have been average on special teams, ranking in the middle of the pack for both power play and penalty kill efficiency. While they’ve killed off 81.5% of penalties over their last 10 games, their power play has converted just 14.5% of opportunities during this recent stretch.
J.T. Miller leads the team with eight points in the last 10 games, but he hasn’t scored in five straight games and has seen a significant reduction in ice time over the last week. This certainly hasn’t helped trade rumours, which seem to be picking up even more steam heading into the weekend.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Canucks
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline – Regular Time (-104) at Pinnacle
Vancouver does a good job suppressing shots, but no team generates more shots on goal per 60 minutes than Edmonton this season, so the ice should tilt in the Oilers’ favor. Edmonton also ranks second in expected goals percentage and has looked even stronger in that metric recently. Given the Canucks’ current form, I’m comfortable betting on Edmonton to win in regulation on Saturday at -104 odds.
