Some Vancouver Canucks-related rumours take a little extra bit of consideration to wrap our heads around, and the latest scuttlebutt is definitely an example of that.

Connor Zary is a player of seemingly limited appeal. He was drafted by the Calgary Flames at 24^th overall in 2020, so he once had potential. And he did score 14 goals and 34 points as a rookie back in 2023-24, which isn’t a bad start to an NHL career.

But Zary has scored less than that in each of his seasons since, including just 12 goals and 25 points in 74 games last year. He’s suffered through multiple injuries that have hampered his development, particularly as it pertains to his already limited skating ability. As a result, he’s turned into what can only be described as a fringe NHL player. And that status was seemingly confirmed when the Flames placed Zary on waivers last week and saw him pass through unclaimed by all 31 of the other NHL organizations.

Which is why it was so strange to see Elliotte Friedman start spouting rumours of the Canucks’ reported interest in Zary…after he’d already cleared waivers and been re-assigned to the AHL.

Now, these sorts of trades happen from time to time. A team might reasonably trade for a player who has already passed through waivers unclaimed because they want the ability to start that player on their own AHL roster. The Boston Bruins, for example, traded a sixth for the Canucks’ Lukas Reichel last year, even though Reichel was available on waivers in December.

But Zary would be an unusual example of that trope because he carries a $3.775 million cap hit this season and the next. That’s too big of a cap hit to ‘bury,’ which means that even while Zary is in the AHL, he incurs a $2.55 million cap hit for his NHL team. For the Canucks to have interest in trading for an already-waived Zary would mean the Canucks have interest in not just having Zary in Abbotsford, but paying him a considerable amount to play there. Which doesn’t make a lot of sense, on the surface. That’s probably why Friedman mentioned that a Zary trade to Vancouver is “probably going to take something creative.”

So what might “something creative” look like in this scenario?

The most obvious and direct method of creativity might be salary retention, but Friedman notes that is an unlikely path, as the Flames have already used up two of their three retention slots on previous trades involving Nazem Kadri and Blake Coleman, and are probably unwilling to use their last slot on Zary, given the minimal nature of his expected return.

The next most common method is probably what we’ve come to call a “sweetener,” as in a draft pick or other asset attached to an unpalatable contract so as to make it more palatable. This would make more sense, since the Flames have plenty of picks and the rebuilding Canucks are always hungry for more. But then again, the Flames are also rebuilding, and they also happen to be flush in cap space (with more than $15 million in the present moment). Why would Calgary give up a valuable asset to gain cap space they don’t really need?

We have heard that the Flames might be a little budget-conscious, what with the rebuild being on and a new arena being built, but are they so budget-conscious they’d give up draft picks just to save on Zary’s $3.775 million base salary this year and the next? Maybe, but with a lot of that arena being paid for by public funds, it sounds like questionable reasoning.

A contract swap might make the most sense, but only if the Canucks had a logical contract of their own to swap. They’ve thus far avoided burying anyone in the minors themselves and are, for the most part, free of contracts they’d want to get rid of. One name that jumps out from the cap chart is Filip Chytil. He’s on IR again and still on the books for a $4,437,500 cap hit for the remainder of this season, which is slightly more than Zary’s own cap hit.

From the Flames’ perspective, the appeal to such a swap could be as simple as getting out of a contract one year earlier. Chytil’s deal expires this summer; Zary’s the summer afterward. Beyond that, they’re just giving Chytil a try when he comes on the IR later this season, seeing if he can finally have a healthy run of hockey, and maybe hoping to cash him in for a mid-round draft pick, something they obviously failed to do with Zary.

For the Canucks, they’d be taking a risk that Zary has more to give at the NHL level, or at least more than Chytil currently does, and hoping he can get back to his rookie level of performance with a fresh start in a new organization. With Zary being two calendar years and three draft years younger than Chytil, it’s a reasonable bet.

Another upside for the Canucks here is that they could take on Zary without having to make any immediate room on their NHL roster. Because Zary has already passed through waivers, he could be assigned to Abbotsford after a trade, and then await an injury to get his shot in Vancouver.

Which is good news, because as much interest as the Canucks might have in Zary, they’re probably not interested in giving up any of the forwards on their current active roster for him. They could, of course, send Jonathan Lekkerimäki or Liam Öhgren down to Abbotsford without the need for waivers at any point if they wanted to recall Zary, but that would be counterproductive with Lekkerimäki finally showing something at the NHL level and Öhgren having previously shown plenty. The Canucks could always waive Arshdeep Bains or Aatu Räty in favour of Zary, but that would seem like a waste of organizational assets.

The smartest call here seems to be swapping Chytil for Zary and letting him simmer in Abbotsford until an inevitable injury gives him a shot. There’s a bit of logic here, in that the Canucks have already stated that they prefer for their top prospects, like Braeden Cootes, Ty Mueller, and Riley Pattersson, to stay in Abbotsford the majority of the year instead of ‘yo-yo-ing’ up and down as call-ups. This, combined with preseason injuries to Akil Thomas and Mackenzie MacEachern, makes it so that the Canucks don’t have any obvious forward call-ups beyond perhaps Matthew Stienburg. Zary probably moves to the top of that list, which all but guarantees he’d get his shot in Vancouver eventually, and probably multiple of them.

If all goes well, Zary continues in some sort of top-nine role for the Canucks into next season, something made easier by the eventual departures of some pending UFA forwards like Paul Cotter, Drew O’Connor, and Brendan Gallagher.

The risk, then, is that Zary doesn’t work out, at which point the Canucks are on the hook for another year of that $3.775 million cap hit without much hope of getting rid of it. In that case, however, it’s only really a one-year penalty, and the Canucks would be able to bury some of that cap hit in the minors, as the Flames are currently doing. The Canucks, with more than $16 million in expiring UFA contracts this summer, will have the space to accommodate that.

Overall, it’s a relatively low-risk proposition, and the Canucks’ interest will come down to how high they expect the reward to be, which depends on their internal pro scouts and what they think of Zary and his potential to perform as an NHL player.

If they think there’s a chance that Zary turns into a real asset for them, a swap of him and Chytil makes plenty of sense. If not, the Canucks have plenty of time to focus on what are sure to be other available targets across the league in the years to come.