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The Statsies: Numbers back the eye test on Jonathan Lekkerimäki in Canucks’ loss to Hurricanes
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Photo credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Michael Liu
Oct 9, 2026, 12:20 EDTUpdated: Oct 9, 2026, 12:21 EDT
Now that’s what a rebuilding team looks like.
The Vancouver Canucks got shelled last night to the tune of a 7-2 loss at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. To take on the defending champs on the road is tough, so the context of this game does matter a lot – but at the same time, it was hard to really watch this contest, or take any positives away. Again, such is the pain of watching a team that simply isn’t competitive with the league’s best.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.

Game Flow

Just one glance at the Y-axis of this chart should tell anyone just how heavily dominated the Canucks were last night. Not a single period was in their favour, with Carolina controlling this contest from beginning to end with massive numbers to show for it. The Canes never dipped below 50.00 CF% or 64.00 xGF% in any period, with the third seeing the home team pulverize the Canucks with 68.75 CF% and 88.52 xGF%. Scoring chances at even strength were 16-4 with a massive 9-2 margin for the Canes, who racked up 2.51 xGF in the final frame alone. Suffice it to say that the Canucks couldn’t keep up at all with Carolina.

Heat Map

The heat map highlights yet more of the disparity between the two sides. Vancouver was never within touching distance of the Canes, sitting in a 27-10 scoring-chance hole and a 12-5 high-danger-chance deficit. Again, if it’s any consolation, the first period wasn’t horrible when breaking down the period-by-period numbers. There, the Canucks held Carolina to a 4-2 lead in overall chances and one high-danger chance. While the Hurricanes got better as the game went on, especially in the third period, something else stood out in the second period. Carolina had a 7-4 lead in scoring chances, but it was actually the Canucks who pushed with a 3-2 advantage in high-danger chances. Again, not that it amounted to much, but certainly interesting to see given the final score.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: Marco Rossi led all Canuck skaters with a 61.11 CF% last night, looking decent in a sea of misery. Shots with Rossi on the ice stood at 5-3 for the Canucks, managing to keep a 4-5 gap in scoring chances and 2-3 margin in high-danger chances. The forward didn’t move the needle all that much like the rest of the team, but Rossi at least wasn’t too far in the negatives. His 38.59 xGF% might look bad, but put into context with team average, it still stood at a 22.31 xGF% rel. Speaks more to the play of the team, in all honesty.
Corsi Chump: This one was a rough number. Arshdeep Bains only played 8:04 last night but still managed to post a team-low 8.33 CF%, getting absolutely dominated in his limited minutes against Carolina. Shots were 0-9 for the Canes as they scored twice at even strength, with Bains recording a 2.04 xGF%. That’s right, with him playing, Carolina was clipping in at a 97.96 xGF%. It’s actually a little impressive that in under 10 minutes, Bains was on ice for the 6th-highest xGA at 1.12. Not great for the Canucks that their fourth line was that much of a liability.
xGF: Elias Pettersson tried. He was probably the only Canuck forward to look remotely dangerous last night as he led Vancouver with a 43.55 xGF%. That might not sound particularly impressive, but considering that his mark was still 31.72 xGF% rel to team average, it’s quite the contribution to an otherwise anemic game up front. Pettersson was not on ice for a single 5v5 goal against, producing two assists off the second-best xGF (0.53) and third-best xGA (0.69) on the team. The Swede managed to break even in both scoring chances and high-danger chances, which is all one could really ask for in a blowout loss. The only person to outdo Elias Pettersson in xGF was Elias Pettersson, D-Petey chipping in with a 0.65 xGF on the night.
GSAx: It was a rough outing from Kevin Lankinen. The Finn didn’t get much help from the team in front of him but certainly did the Canucks no favours between the pipes, letting up 6 goals on 2.33 xGF for a -3.67 GSAx in two periods of play. The goals were split evenly at 3-3 between high-danger and middle-danger shots, so the saving grace is that the goals weren’t necessarily soft. However, one would be hoping for a better performance from Lankinen given everything. Coming in relief was Leevi Meriläinen, who fared much better, giving up a single goal against 2.51 xGF for a 1.51 GSAx, the only tally against him being a middle-danger shot.

Statistical Musings

Figuring out the back end: One thing to emerge through the first five games of the season is the myriad of combinations in defence pairings. Specifically, where exactly to pair up Jamie Oleksiak with the younger defencemen. Unfortunately for the Canucks, the veteran defender has struggled to start the year and is mostly being buoyed by his partners to keep his numbers afloat. Against Carolina, Oleksiak saw most of his minutes with Tom Willander, and the numbers weren’t exactly kind to his effort. Together, the pair had 25.00 CF% and 15.64 xGF%, giving up a 5v5 goal against and 3 scoring chances. That’s not awful given the overall team averages, but Oleksiak’s numbers away from Willander were putrid. The defenceman totaled a 16.67 CF% and 0.00 xGF% without the younger Swede, showing the impact Willander was having on that pairing. It’s unfortunate, because Oleksiak should be someone that the Canucks can lean on for veteran stability – and it hasn’t quite happened yet this season.
Lekkerimäki continues to impress: The second-best forward from last night was none other than Jonathan Lekkerimäki, managing to find the scoresheet yet again with an assist in his strong run of form. The numbers backed up a big time performance, just coming in second with a 43.15 xGF% but tying Pettersson with a 0.53 raw xGF. In a crucial year to cement himself into this team’s top 6 and future plans, the winger is doing very well to kick off the campaign, and hopefully has more to come and develop into as the season continues.

As a team

CF% – 43.16% HDCF% – 33.33% xGF% – 28.10%
The Canucks were outclassed by the Hurricanes – and that’s alright; it was to be expected. Was it ideal to see the team play this way? Probably not, but these are the growing pains that this Canucks team will be undergoing, especially up against the defending Cup champions. Hopefully, they can keep games a little more competitive going forward.
Vancouver continues their road swing tomorrow with an afternoon game against the New Jersey Devils.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com

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