If the Vancouver Canucks thought they had rumours of interpersonal problems circling the club, well, they’ve got nothing on the New York Rangers right now.
Things have been getting awkward in Gotham for a while now, but this latest round of drama definitely began when the Rangers threatened their captain, Jacob Trouba, with waivers if he did not agree to lift his no-trade clause and accept a trade to Anaheim. In the end, Trouba acquiesced, but it left a sour taste in the mouths of many – including some of the Rangers themselves.
Now it’s Kaapo Kakko, the 23-year-old right winger and former second-overall pick, in the middle of a new controversy.
Kakko was healthy scratched for this past Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Blues. To say he did not react well to the scratch would be putting it mildly.
Speaking after the fact, Kakko told the New York Post’s Mollie Walker:
If that harsh rebuke of coach Peter Laviolette wasn’t enough, Kakko proceeded to throw at least some of his teammates under the bus, too, stating that “[I] have not been on the ice too much when [opponents] score a goal, I have not been the worst guy, but that was me out of the lineup.”
It sounds like big trouble in the Big Apple.
And, sure, it’s true that Kakko got right back into the lineup two nights later against Nashville. But then he only played 10:14, the lowest amount of any Ranger. It seems fair to predict that Kakko’s time in New York might be coming to an end in the near future. Speculators and rumour-mongers certainly describe him as actively on the block.
With POHO Jim Rutherford of the Vancouver Canucks recently sharing that his team was looking to acquire both a quality winger and a top-four defender, one can’t help but wonder if there’s a Kakko-to-Vancouver trade to be had.
We think there is. And we think the primary piece going back the other way might be Nils Höglander.
On the surface, Kakko and Höglander are similar assets. Both are wingers, come from the same draft class, and play a heavier game than the average import. Each has struggled to fully establish themselves in their respective lineup, despite at least one decent season – Höglander’s 24 goals last year and Kakko’s 40 points the year before.
Each is having a difficult start to the 2024/25 season that has involved some time in their coach’s doghouse. Both are rapidly approaching ‘change of scenery’ territory — if they’re not already there.
And each carries some distinct advantages for the other side of this theoretical trade.
From a Rangers’ perspective, they need more goal-scoring, and pronto. As of this writing, they’ve scored the second-fewest amount in the Metropolitan Division, and that just won’t fly for a team that has hopes of not just making the playoffs but competing in them. Even in his current diminished form, Höglander offers more offensive flair and dynamism than does Kakko. And if he can regain even some of that 24-goal form of last year, that’d be exactly what they need.
Höglander also comes with the benefit of contract certainty. He signed a three-year, $3 million extension that kicks in as of next year. For the Canucks, that extension is looking a little questionable right now. But if the Rangers like Höglander, it can become a positive pretty easily.
From the Canucks’ perspective, Kakko looks like a lot better fit for a Rick Tocchet-coached team. He’s had a reputation as a two-way whiz since his draft year and has earned accolades for his defensive performance essentially ever since he stepped into the NHL.
Sure, the offence has been slow to come. But Kakko has not been on the ice for more goals against than for since his rookie season, and he’s maintained a positive ratio of expected goals in every season except for the last one. He’s often described as difficult to play against, and that’s something Tocchet always enjoys.
There’s also always that upside worth mentioning. Kakko is just five years removed from going second overall, and from receiving some genuine consideration to go first overall. A full breakout probably isn’t in the cards, but there’s got to be some untapped potential still lurking within.
Cap-wise, Kakko makes $2.4 million this season, which is a little more than double what Höglander makes. The Canucks could pretty easily accommodate the difference in the present moment, albeit at the cost of some occasional cap accrual, and then Kakko’s an RFA at the end of the year. The budget-conscious Canucks could feel decently confident that whatever Kakko signs for, it will still be in the same range as what Höglander is already on the books for.
In other words, the budget isn’t much of a concern here.
One sticking point may be that aforementioned discrepancy in draft position. Really, players’ draft status should stop mattering the second they become actual NHLers, but GMs are slow to forget, and reputations tend to stick. Kakko went second overall in 2019, and Höglander went 40th. Since then, Kakko has played in 329 NHL games with 61 goals, 70 assists, and 131 points. Höglander, meanwhile, has played in 251 games with 52 goals, 43 assists, and 95 points.
So, on a per-game basis, Höglander’s production blows Kakko’s out of the water.
However, it’s worth noting that while Höglander’s per-60 numbers are way down, from 2.38 points-per-60 last year to just 0.91 this year, Kakko’s are up to the highest they’ve ever been at 2.08 points-per-60.
There’s certainly an argument to be had that the two players are of roughly equal value. But as we return to that concept of draft position, we can imagine that the Rangers would demand an additional sweetener from the Canucks here. Or, at least try to.
At the same time, we have to consider Kakko as a distressed asset. His comments didn’t just call out his coach, they specifically labeled some of his teammates as not putting in the same effort that Kakko does. That’s the sort of thing that doesn’t play well in any dressing room, much less one that is already fractured. This was two steps short of an outright trade demand. That should increase the impetus to trade Kakko sooner rather than later, and that should take some value off the top.
Enough to reduce that potential sweetener to a mere mid-round pick? Or perhaps to eliminate the need for it altogether? That remains to be seen. But we think the general base of a Höglander-for-Kakko trade tracks, and we suspect the two teams are already talking about it.
We do know, with some certainty, that the Rangers have been interested in Höglander in the past. Back in 2023, when the Canucks were circling around Vitali Kravtsov, the Rangers’ initial ask was reportedly Höglander.
In the end, the Canucks waited them out and got Kravtsov for the much lower price of Will Lockwood and a seventh-round pick.
The same GM, Chris Drury, still holds the reins in New York, at least for the time being. He still presumably holds some interest in Höglander.
Enough to get this deal done? One way or another, we’ve got a feeling we will find out soon.
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