In my February Deep Dive I stated that I had thought February may have been the Canuck’s most impressive month of the season as they managed to go 8-6 despite injuries to numerous key personnel. In March, they faced multiple injury issues again, including going the entire month without their “number 1” goalie, but managed to improve upon February’s results, going 10-4-2. 

They exited March with 95 points, which in many non-McEichel years, would be enough to squeak into the playoff. As it sits now, the Canucks may very well square off against the Calgary Flames in the first round of the playoffs. Hockey is fun again. 

March was a busy month for the Canucks with 16 games, however only 7 games were against teams in the playoff picture (Blues x 2, Ducks, Kings x 2, Jets, and Predators). Its hard to say whether this helped or hindered the Canucks this month, as 5 of their six losses or OT losses in the month came against non-playoff teams (Sharks, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Stars, & Avalanche), demonstrate yet again the infuriating ability to play up or down to the level of their competition. 

The last five games of the season are against the Blackhawks, Jets, Kings, Coyotes, and Oilers, before the real fun begins. 

Jacob Markstrom made his season debut for the Canucks this month against San Jose. Unfortunately, he was shelled for 3 goals on 4 shots in less than 8 minutes. He redeemed himself later in the month, posting a sparkling .963 SV% in a win against the Coyotes, but given the San Jose debacle, Willie Desjardins rode Eddie Lack pretty hard this month, giving him over 92% of the ice time. 

With Miller injured, the Canucks needed Lack carry the load, and he didn’t disappoint, posting a .923 SV% for the second month in a row: 

The contribution above by Lack is especially impressive considering March was the Canucks busiest month of the season, and he played all but one game, including back to back wins against the Blues and Predators.

In terms of Quality Appearances, which I define as goalie games played where they achieved a save percentage above the current league average of .911, Lack performed well yet again: 

Ryan Miller is unlikely to be ready to return before the playoffs, so it’ll be important for the Canucks to get Markstrom in for at least one game before the season ends, considering how heavy Lack’s schedule has been of late. 

The Canucks signed 6Miller$ last summer, because they questioned Lack’s ability to be a true number one. With only 5 games remaining, it appears that question has been asked and answered. 

The table below shows even-strength CF% for each defender, by month:

According to puckalytics.com, the second pair of Dan Hamhuis & Yannick Weber actually put together a pretty good month together, with a .526 CF% rating during March, which actually exceeded their individual possession numbers in the table above. This is an encouraging sign, as the Canucks have had a consistently strong, possession driving pairing outside of Tanev/Edler this year.

Kevin Bieksa also missed time due to injury this month, and has played predominantly with Luca Sbisa since his return. The pair posted a possession rating of CF% .488 when on the ice together in March, which is pretty consistent with what we’ve seen from either player this year. At this stage its hard to make an argument that either is better than a 3rd pair defender.   

Adam Clendening, Frank Corrado, and Alex Biega have helped to fill in admirably for injuries, but have since been returned to Utica for the Comets playoff run. At this stage, one has to be pretty optimistic with the state of the Canucks defense core, with Hamhuis and Weber showing signs of developing chemistry together, Tanev and Edler healthy again, and Clendening and Corrado showing that they can fill in if needed down the road. 

After a lights out offensive month in February, the Canucks forwards returned to earth this month, which was to be expected. After all, only a player of calibre of Calgary’s Jiri Hudler’s can maintain a 20% shooting percentage throughout the entire season (sorry Zack). Here are is the forwards offensive production by month at even strength: 

After a red hot February, every line except the Bonino-Vrbata-Higgins line took a step back in terms of points per 60 minutes of ice time this month. It should come as no surprise that after helping the 2nd power the teams even strength offense this month, there has been a fair amount of chatter around Radim Vrbata being the team’s MVP this year. He clearly was one of best free agent signings in the summer, and with no longer producing at a 1st line level at even strength, his contribution to the second line has been crucial. On the season, Vrbata trails only two unlikely Canucks in terms of points per 60 minutes at even strength: Ronalds Kenins and Nick Bonino. 

Consistent with the trend we saw in P/60, on-ice shooting percentages dipped for most players, with the exception of Vrbata and Chris Higgins: 

From the standpoint of possession, the Sedins/Burrows line was again the most successful at keeping the puck in the oppositions end, although unfortunately a lower than average on-ice shooting percentage for the month held them back from really tipping the scales in terms of points. The Bonino line was right behind them in terms of possession, and as of the end of the month Bonino, Vrbata, and Higgins are had possession numbers consistent with the league average for players receiving 2nd line minutes at even strength:  

The table below shows key statistics for the Canucks when at even-strength, on the power play, or on the penalty kill, by month and year-to-date:  

In terms of their play at even-strength, we continued to see the same trend with the Canucks being a middle of the pack possession team. While shooting percentages cooled as compared to February, this was offset with a Lack’s higher save percentage this month. 

While the Canucks have been very average at even strength, it has been special teams that have determine whether they would make the playoffs or not over the course of the year. The March power play was pretty consistent with what we’ve seen all year, in that they were slightly better than league average, but it has really been the penalty kill where the Canucks have been able to make up ground. 

On the year, they are still amongst the best in terms of preventing shot attempts per 60 minutes and goals per 60 minutes, but both of those metrics have risen in February and March as compared to earlier in the year. The penalty kill has relied heavily on Tanev and Edler who are recently back from injury, so hopefully now that they’re been back for a few weeks we’ll see the PK return to the elite level it was earlier in the year. 

Going into the year the expectations from the fan base were rock bottom. However, despite being a middle of the pack team at even strength, this Canucks team has been just good enough in other facets of the game to all but ensure themselves of a playoff berth. It’s looking more and more like a first round match-up against an old rival, the Calgary Flames, could be in the cards, which I can’t help but be pretty excited about. 

No one is expecting much from the Canucks if they do make the playoffs. Then again, the playoffs is about a goalie running hot, the team getting more bounces going their way than they give, and team getting lucky with injuries. Also known as luck, luck, and luck.

So have fun Canucks fans, and don’t be afraid to pray to the gods of PDO. No one expected much from the 82 or 94 teams either.