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Canucks Army Midterm Prospect Rankings #5: Adam Gaudette
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Jan 23, 2017, 19:00 ESTUpdated: Invalid DateTime
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A centre playing his second year for the Northeastern University Huskies, Adam Gaudette checks in as the fifth-ranked prospect in Canucks Army’s Midterm Prospect Rankings.
When we last checked in with Gaudette, he was the 13th best prospect after a sensational second half to last season vaulted him to the front of the Canucks prospect depth chart. We ranked him there with a certain amount of concern regarding his ability to continue that pace, but so far this season, he’s picked up right where he left off.

The Qualifications

Before I jump in, let’s quickly review the criteria for a qualifying prospect: 
  • The player must be 25 years or younger, and
  • The player must be eligible for the Calder Trophy next season.
As a result, players that are considered to be “graduated” to the NHL (Brendan Gaunce, Nikita Tryamkin, Jake Virtanen, Anton Rodin) are not eligible.

Stats

Scouting Reports

An intense, hard-working forward who shows a lot of character in not backing down under adversity. A mobile and edgy skater, but needs to improve his explosiveness with the puck. Makes smart plays under pressure, never wanting to make a mistake; sometimes a bit too careful, holding onto dead plays, but this is not a problem that will be hard to curb. Likes to go hard to the net. Needs to get stronger and more physically astute along the boards. Never backs down and never gives up; he thrives under adversity and pressure and finds ways to come up big in the game’s critical moments. All-in-all, a forceful two-way forward that can be counted on for stability and energy when his team is lacking the spirit to surge forward. – Curtis Joe, Elite Prospects (2015)

The Rundown


When the Canucks selected Gaudette in 2015, there was some concern about him merely because he was limited to 30 points (13-17-30) in the USHL. Using the PCS draft model (which has since left this space), Gaudette checked in with 1.6% of his comparable statistical players becoming NHL regulars. As we can see above, pGPS shows that number to be about 4%.
Still, one could understand why a player like Gaudette was an attractive selection. He has a relentless work ethic, played a 200-foot game and was a very adept skater that could get where he needed to go. He had those ‘intangibles’ that can’t be fully quantified but are so very appreciated by this franchise, too.
This is definitely a player that at one point showcased the battle lines between the ‘eye test’ and statistically driven draft analysis. The concern that was brought forward by the statistical analysis received some backing when Gaudette struggled immensely in the NCAA during the first half of the year. Limited to five points in his first sixteen games, there was some weight to the thought that Gaudette may never be able to make it as a prospect.
Then something clicked. In the final 25 games of last season, Gaudette posted nine goals and sixteen assists, helping lead the Northeastern Huskies to the Hockey East title.
The easy conclusion to draw was that Gaudette caught fire as Northeastern started to take off, and he would see a bit of a drop off in his stats in his sophomore season. His 0.73 PPG last season has risen to 1.48 PPG so far this year.
At this moment, he is tied for eighth in the NCAA in points, while his PPG rate has him seventh. His 16 power-play points have him ranked fifth. The players above him in powerplay production include two of his teammates, Zach Aston-Reese and Dylan Sikura (CHI). 
His shots/per game rate is 4.35 S/PG, good for seventh in the NCAA. He currently has 100 shots this season, which is already more than he has last year (96) in 18 fewer games. His SH% was 12.5% last year and is currently at 13% (13 goals on 100 shots) this season.
As they say often say, get pucks to the net, and good things happens. That seems to be the case here. Gaudette has almost doubled his shot rate and is reaping great rewards for it.
A couple of weeks ago, I profiled the 2015 Canucks draft class, and Gaudette’s pGPS came in at 42.1%. Since that timeframe, Gaudette’s only continued to score, and that pGPS has skyrocketed to 100%. There is some context needed here, which I will explain below the image showing his comparable players:

First off, I sat on the pGPS data for about ten days before completing that profile on the 2015 draft class — so it was slightly outdated. But the rise of 42.1% of matches to 100% is due to Gaudette slightly increasing his production rate, dropping off the comparable players that were below 1.45 PPG (in era-adjusted scoring). Those players dropped off the ‘unsuccessful’ matches which left just Brendan Morrison, Gustav Nyquist and Kip Miller. All three of those players have played more than 200 NHL games, hence the 100% success rate.
The 100% looks favourable at this moment, but a slight drop in production would likely result in those unsuccessful matches creeping back into the picture, and the percentage dropping accordingly. All the same, those are great players to be compared to. Miller played just under 450 games in the NHL, posting 239 points. Nyqvist is a productive top-six forward for the Red Wings, and we all know Morrison’s story.
If Gaudette turns into anything similar to those three, that’s a home run in the fifth round.
With the pGPS out of the way, let’s dive back into his season this year.
Out of the 23 games that Gaudette has suited up for, he has posted points in 18, with one of the zero point games being a game that was suspended after two periods due to a Zamboni malfunction. He has never gone more than one game without a point. Although Northeastern has struggled to put up points this season, this hasn’t stopped the Canucks prospect from holding his end of the bargain. Gaudette currently leads all NCAA sophomore in points, A/GP (0.91), P/GP(1.48), PPG (8) and PPP (16).
Another impressive stat is that Gaudette is tied for 101st in NCAA sophomore in PIM, which is a much lower when looking at the whole NCAA. His work ethic and tenacity are consistently praised, and usually that lends one’s self to penalty trouble, but Gaudette’s playing the game in a rough way without putting his team at a disadvantage.
Gaudette is not under contract with the Canucks because he is playing in the NCAA. The Canucks own his rights until August 15, 2019, as the NHL outlines in Article 8.6c (i) in the NHL/NHLPA CBA. There is no rush to sign him, as the NCAA schedule allows practice time and development while getting an education. However, the Canucks will likely speak to Gaudette at the conclusion of his season about turning professional for next season.
Utica is relying quite a bit on veteran players this year, and that has been further exacerbated by injuries to the big club. There would likely be an opportunity for someone like Gaudette to step into the AHL lineup next season, and have a chance to run with it. There will also be an influx of young players with prospects like Guillaume Brisebois, Carl Neill, Dmitry Zhukenov and Lukas Jasek potentially making their way to the AHL next season.
If he does return to Northeastern for his junior season, it isn’t a bad thing. The team will rely on Gaudette in a leadership role as Stevens and Aston-Reese are seniors.
If you haven’t already, I would suggest reading J.D. Burke’s interview with Adam Gaudette from our summer prospect rankings. 
There are reasons to be excited about Gaudette. He’s trending towards being an NHL player for the Canucks, which is a fantastic development. Still, I would caution against getting lost in those expectations.
Sometimes prospects defy the ‘eye-test’ and the statistical analysis and vault themselves in legitimate NHL prospects. That’s exactly what Gaudette did.
He won’t join the Canucks next season and suddenly occupy the third line centre spot. There will be a learning curve if and when he turns pro. Every player sees it and even more so for college players as they get used the grind of professional hockey. If he does turn pro this summer, then I would expect him to start in the AHL next year, and work towards being one of the first call-up options. Given the lack of centres there, unless there is some drastic movement, it wouldn’t take too long to put himself in that position.

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