As
we are about to start the 2015 Stanley Cup playoffs, any good analyst would look
into the true talent of the team to see how likely they are to win.  But given how short the Stanley Cup tournament is, it becomes more of a crap
shoot as shooting percentages and variances play a larger role.

We already looked at why the Canucks won’t win, so let’s look at what they do right and why they will win the 2015 Stanley Cup!

Despite
their overall possession numbers, the Canucks still boast some top
talent.  In the face of aging to their mid 30s the Sedins still manage to
dominate both ends of the ice.  Henrik Sedin continues to be an elite
centre, this year used in a more two-way role and even receiving some
accolades from the PHWA for Selke nomination while Daniel continues to
be an offensive leader for the team and in the league.

In terms of raw scoring, Daniel and Henrik finished at 9th and 13th in the league respectively and were some of the best play makers placing 4th and 5th in the assist race.  In terms of possession, the Sedins are posting strong corsi-for percentages that are equal to first line talent.

And
it’s not just the Sedins who are good, the defence corp is lead by the
very elite defensive defncemen Chris Tanev and Alex Edler (who has
bounced back from his Green Jacket Year).  Their depth defensive corps
in Adam Clendening is played like top pairing talent in his NHL audition (before being sent to Utica) and Yannick Weber is having a career year trying to earn
himself $bisa money. 

The rookies such as Bo Horvat are quickly improving and establishing themselves as key players in the roster and Ronalds Kenins has played like
first line talent in his limited playing time.  Key players in all roles
of the line up are necessary if you want to win in the long run.

Eddie
Lack has demonstrated himself to be an average to above-average starter
in the NHL. He played in 19 of 20 games post-Miller injury and posted a
.927 in that time.  He also has a .921 on the year which is
the third highest save percentage of a goaltender in the franchise
history behind Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider.

There’s some questions in terms of Eddie Lack’s High-Danger Saves.  Quoting Rhys from the series match up:

Given
how short the playoffs truly are, a strong string of luck from the
goaltenders could win the Stanley Cup for for the teams on their own.  The coaching staff seems to think similarly, having named him the starter for the Canucks in game 1, but so far this year he has yet to falter and looks like he will give the Canucks the best chance in the playoffs.

One
revival of this year was in the Canucks special teams.  The Canucks posses a elite penalty kill and their power play is not too bad either.  

The powerplay is good but isn’t anything to write home about, finishing the regular season with a 19.3% efficiency, good for 9th place, they are ranked 13th in goals scored (1st in PP Goals-For %) but drop slightly down to 17th in Shots-For per 60 at 50.0. 

It is the penalty kiil where their efficiency starts to shine.  They finished at 5th in goals against and shots-against per 60 minutes.  The Canucks finished the regular season second in their penalty-kill efficiency at 85.7%.  Only Minnesota was better than them.

This has allowed the Canucks to play with fire as they have one of the
worst penalty differentials in the league/playoff teams.  Because they
can play with an edge they can take the risks of extra penalties as they
are confident in their ability to prevent teams from scoring.  The Canucks will need their penalty kill as their first round opponents, the Calgary Flames, have one of the league’s best penalty differentials.

One narrative that seems to have run all year is that the Canucks were able to
step up against teams in the top of the standings.  Not only did it seem
the Canucks were able to beat them but they outplayed them as well.  Over the season the Canucks had some decent records against some top ranking teams including going 1-1 with New York and Montreal while beating St. Louis in all 3 match ups.

The opposite seems to have been true in that again bottom of the
standings teams were able to come in and walk all over the Canucks.  Remember the 3-6 loss to Buffalo or the 0-5 loss to Arizona?  Me neither, I forgot them after the game, but they are still on the record.

Thankfully the Edmontons, Arizonas and Torontos of the league did not make the playoffs.

One thing that the Canucks have had going for them all year is that luck has been working in their favour.  Given how large of a role luck plays in hockey all it takes is it to continue for 16-28 more games and the Canucks could be hosting the Stanley Cup this June.

The Canucks are lucky to be facing Calgary.  Some
pundits are already considering the first round a bye for the Canucks. 
While it is not quite that easy, the Calgary Flames are probably the
best team you could ask to face in the first round.  They are a bottom of the league possession team – a statistic we care about because it is
our current best predictor of future goals and playoff series.

Teams
in their tier rarely make the playoffs and are even less likely to
advance far into the playoffs.  Given that the Canucks are not a strong
team themselves, the Calgary Flames as opponents give Vancouver the best
probability of advancing.  The Canucks could have been unlucky and faced top teams  such as Los Angeles, Winnipeg, or Chicago in the first round.

Given the Flames provide the Canucks with
the best chance of advancing to the second round only greatly increases
their chance of moving on to the final.  As Mr. Ohl often says,
“Probabilities are not destinies” so the Canucks cannot completely
disregard the Flames as opponents.

Another lucky trend that has
persisted across the season, and one that I’ve touched on a few times,
is that the Canucks are lacking in real significant injuries – especially to key personnel.  This could easily change at a dime (as we
saw in 2011) but bodes currently well to their chance of winning.

All it could take to give the Canucks that edge to win the Stanley Cup is a string of good luck.  It’s not something you should bet on but it is not something that is outside the realm of possibilities.

Willie Desjardins has won at all levels of coaching.

In the WHL Desjardins coached the Medicine Hat Tigers to 2 WHL Championships.  Last season, In the AHL, he took the Texas Stars all the way to the Calder Cup final and beat the St. John’s IceCaps in only 5 games. 

This is Willie Desjardins’ first kick at the NHL can.  Will his streak continue to the 2015 season?  We shall see over the next few months.