1
Photo Credit: Le Journal de Montreal

CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT PROFILES: #78 Dmitri Zavgorodny

Dmitri Zavgorodny is a player that has seen his stock rise and fall throughout the course of the 2018 season as he had some really promising periods of time during the year but he is always fighting an uphill battle as a 5’9″ centre.

Zavgorodny is a crafty centre who has a good shot and playmaking abilities. He will be playing on the same team as wonder kid Alexis Lafreniere next season and could see another step offensively.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the 78th ranked prospect in the upcoming draft.

Bio

  • Age/Birthdate: 17.10 / August 11, 2000
  • Birthplace: Omsk, RUS
  • Frame: 5-foot-9/ 161 lbs
  • Position: Centre
  • Handedness: Right
  • Draft Year Team: Rimouski Oceanic(QMJHL)
  • Accomplishments/Awards:

Stats

Career

Zavgorodny was selected 8th overall by the Oceanic in the 2017 CHL Import Draft after splitting his D-1 season between the U17 team for Avangard and the MHL. He presented Russia at the Ivan Hlinka tournament to start his draft year and then again to close out the season with the U18 team.

His KHL rights were traded to SKA St Petersburg in October and if he does choose to return there at some point, it’s safe to assume that’s where he will go. There is no speculation either way and it’s fair to believe that he will go back to the QMJHL next season as they look to challenge for the QMJHL title after finishing in third place this past season.

2017-18 Season

GP G A P SEAL INV% 5v5 Pr INV% 5v5 eP160 Sh/Gp Sh% GF% GF%rel GD60rel XLS% XPR xVAL
62 26 21 47 0.86 22.0% 14.0% 1.52 2.35 18% 61.8% 2.4% 0.25 8% 43.0 0.8

Nothing particularly stands out from the above table and nothing raises any red flags but also doesn’t leave you chomping at the bit to select him.

Adjusted Scoring (SEAL)

Team Relative

As we can see in the chart above, Zavgorodny’s 5v5 role decreased as the season went along but his scoring rates per 60 skyrocketed.

Cohort Based

Given his size, there aren’t very many successful cohorts and quite a few unsuccessful ones. As always, historically there is a lower success rate among QMJHL players and thus needs to be considered when looking at that percentages. His successful cohorts did have decent production with an expected production of 43 points per 82 games.

Our Take

Dmitri Zavgorodny is an interesting case study because of his size and the game he plays. He is a really smart player with a good shot and puck handling skills. He is a worker on the ice, willing to buzz around the ice to make things happen but is smart in his positioning to put himself in positions to force turnovers and offensive chances. He isn’t the most fleet of foot due to his smaller size and lack of strength. Zavgorodny is willing to go to the dirty areas but can have issues with physical play and being overpowered.

His willingness to take the puck to the net or muck it up is something that does stand out. Zavgorodny doesn’t just stay on the outsides of the play and wait for his chance, he is willing to make things happen despite his size. But his size will always be an issue.

The Omsk born centre was strong at the Ivan Hlinka tournament, which can be seen below:

He led the entire Hlinka tournament with five goals and five assists in 10 games but when he represented Russia at the U18 tournament to close out the season, he was limited to one goal.

Without a doubt, he had a very good rookie season as an import and will look to build on those numbers next season.

There is always a risk with taking a smaller player as you are never sure if they will be able to make an impact in the professional ranks, let alone in the NHL. Zavgorodny had some encouraging signs to his game but he didn’t exactly blow the doors off offensively after a really impressive showing at Ivan Hlinka. His smarts, defensive play, shot and willingness to grind are the standout qualities to his game. He will need to continue to improve his strength have a shot at the NHL.

Personally, I wouldn’t have him as a second-round player like some draft rankings have him but his skills are worth a risk in the later rounds.

Further Reading

Consolidated Average Future Considerations Hockey Prospect.com ISS Hockey McKeen’s The Athletic TSN Bob McKenzie TSN Craig Button The Hockey News Sportsnet ESPN Dobber Prospects
79 75.3 86 $$ 64 57 64

From Cam Robinson, Dobber Prospects:

Tremendous Ivan Hlinka tournament got him on the radar, but this undersized winger has the speed, hands and vision to be a producer in the NHL if placed in the right situation.

CanucksArmy’s 2018 NHL Draft Rankings

#79 Linus Nyman
#80 Liam Foudy #81 Linus Karlsson #82 Jachym Kondelik
#83 SCOTT PERNOVICH #84 G JAKUB SKAREK #85 TY EMBERSON
#86 JAY O’BRIEN #87 CARL WASSENIUS #88 VLADISLAV KOTKOV
#89 EMIL WESTERLUND #90 JERRY TURKULAINEN #91 STANISLAV DEMIN
#92 TYLER MADDEN #93 JAN JENIK #94 G OLIVIER RODRIGUE
#95 XAVIER BERNARD #96 KRISTIAN TANUS #97 LUKAS WERNBLOM
#98 NANDO EGGENBERGER #99 MATTHEW STRUTHERS #100 SHAWN BOURDIAS

 

  • Peachy

    “As always, historically there is a lower success rate among QMJHL players and thus needs to be considered when looking at that percentages.”

    Can you elaborate? I know that the QMJHL graduates players at lower rates than the rest of the CHL, particularly defenders if I recall correctly. But it begs the question: should we “consider” lower graduations rates, or just acknowledge that players in the QMJHL need to be “better” relative to the league in order to be likely to graduate to the NHL?