Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent Goals and Expectations for each Vancouver Canucks player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.

Or, perhaps this time, we should say ‘each prospective Canucks player.’ Because the player we’re here to discuss today is nowhere near guaranteed a spot on the roster this year.

That player is Vasily Podkolzin.

With that said, it’d be easy enough to say that in order to meet expectations for 2024/25, what Podkolzin needs to do is simply make the team and stick on it.

But, for one, Quadrelli gets upset when we try to turn in articles of fewer than 150 words.

And, for two, there’s actually a lot more nuance to it than that.

But let’s start with that particular hurdle all the same.

The first set of expectations that Podkolzin will need to worry about are head coach Rick Tocchet’s expectations for Training Camp 2024. And on that front, it might be an uphill battle. Podkolzin got in plenty of reps under Tocchet last year, but he did not appear to develop an abundance of trust. That has to change right away if Podkolzin is going to make the cut.

That Podkolzin is no longer exempt from waivers might seem to be a point in his favour. But that’s only because he’s hit the age of 23 and his third season in North America. Yes, he’s eligible for waivers now, but he’s also become a player that a team should be more comfortable placing on waivers. It’s not going to be the deciding factor.

The deciding factor will be whether or not Podkolzin can beat out enough of the competition fair and square for a spot.

There are about ten forwards who, based on salary and experience, we can almost guarantee will make the final roster. They are Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, Dakota Joshua, Danton Heinen, Teddy Blueger, Pius Suter, and Kiefer Sherwood.

Barring injuries, that leaves only three or four more spots – probably three – to be fought over between Podkolzin, Nils Höglander, Daniel Sprong, Phil di Giuseppe, Nils Åman, Linus Karlsson, and others.

What’s a guy to do to stand out from that crowd?

Podkolzin is not going to provide more offence than a Höglander or a Sprong. Each of them scored more NHL goals last year than Podkolzin has scored at any level of hockey prior.

He’s also unlikely to suddenly become a more reliable player than a veteran like Di Giuseppe, who Tocchet plainly trusts to do things like kill penalties and waste minutes in a tight game.

What Podkolzin can offer, and pretty much has to in order to make the team, is a very well-rounded performance. He has to provide more offensive pop than a Di Giuseppe or an Åman, all the while being more defensively responsible than a Höglander or a Sprong. But these are very accomplishable goals, especially for someone with Podkolzin’s skillset.

We can look at that above list of contenders for spots and, so long as we’re not counting Sherwood among them, reason that Podkolzin has the potential to be the most physical of any of them. If he can lean into that strength to provide a little power forwarding from the bottom-six, without giving up too much in his own end, Tocchet will find a spot for him.

If not…

What would such a year look like production-wise? It might not be anything special. This is a deeper forward corps than it has been in a long time, and if Podkolzin clears the hurdle of making the team, he’s then got to clear the subsequent hurdles of getting into the lineup every night and earning anything beyond base fourth line minutes.

If he can get his foot in the door and his name on the roster more often, it’ll constitute his having met expectations for 2024/25, even if we’re talking about totals below the 14 goals and 12 assists he once posted as a rookie.

A games-played total of about 60 is much more important to see at the end of the year than any amount of points.

This section can be summed up pretty quickly. If Podkolzin is below expectations at Training Camp, or even if he doesn’t exceed expectations to the point that is required in order to beat out other players for a spot, he’ll bet cut from the team.

Unlike last year, however, he’ll require waivers in order to be sent down to Abbotsford. And that’s where things get interesting – and where Podkolzin probably finds his way to a new organization.

The Canucks are a good enough club now that a player cut from their roster could reasonably still find a spot on another team. Especially if that player is still just 23 years old and was once drafted at 10^th overall in the NHL Entry Draft.

Podkolzin is the exact sort of player that teams should and do take flyers on through the waiver wire every year. The odds of him making it through are slim.

So, the way we see it, Podkolzin is going to get one more shot to make this team out of Training Camp. And if he doesn’t meet those expectations, he’s almost certainly going to be taking a shot at another team’s roster shortly thereafter.

Should waivers be avoided, and should Podkolzin make his way onto the team from the get-go, there is actually some real opportunity for him to continue to climb up the roster thereafter. With a foot in the door, he could feasibly kick the whole thing wide open.

Here’s why: the Canucks’ forward corps is as deep as it’s been in recent memory, but it is also deeply unsettled. Only four players are essentially guaranteed spots in the top-six, those being Pettersson, Miller, Boeser, and DeBrusk. We can probably add the duo of Garland and Joshua as being stapled into at least the top-nine, but beyond that?

Any one of the rest of the forwards could reasonably find themselves placed on any of the four forward lines. It’s really that jumbled up right now. And that obviously includes Podkolzin.

Currently, players like Höglander, Suter, Heinen, and/or Sprong are penciled into jobs on scoring lines. Those are not immoveable obstacles. If Podkolzin shows well enough in Training Camp to grab a job, and then shows well enough in his minutes, he would eventually be given a shot on the wing of either Pettersson or Miller. Or, alternatively, if Garland and Joshua slide into the top-six as some have suggested, there’s then an opportunity for Podkolzin to slide into their deployment on the third line.

If enough goes his way, there’s absolutely the potential for Podkolzin to put together the sort of season that isn’t just Above Expectations, but that truly solidifies him as an NHL player moving forward. Scoring 20+ goals went a long way toward doing that for Höglander last year, but such a season from Podkolzin would presumably include more playmaking and a greater physical impact, too. Were he to put up something like 15 goals and around 25 assists over the course of a full season, while being trustworthy, and it’ll be the next step in a long career for Podkolzin.

Anything less, however, and the questions remain.

The margins are truly that thin for Podkolzin as 2024/25 approaches.