All things considered, it was a successful first full season in North America for Jonathan Lekkerimäki, who came in at number two in our most recent rankings of Vancouver Canucks prospects.

His AHL regular season was one to remember, as Lekkerimäki managed to record 19 goals in just 36 games. His play in the AHL led to some NHL chances as well, although the point production didn’t translate, as he tallied just three goals and three assists through 24 NHL games.

Because he appeared in under 25 NHL games, though, Lekkerimäki will retain his NHL rookie status for the 2025-26 season, making him eligible for the Calder Trophy, awarded to the league’s top rookie.

But what kind of competition will Lekkerimäki be up against for the award? Let’s dive in.

It’s possible that Lekkerimäki begins his season in the AHL but comes up later in the season and still makes a compelling case for the Calder Trophy, but more realistically, his chances will be a lot better if he’s able to crack the Canucks’ opening night lineup.

And even with the trade of Dakota Joshua, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Lekkerimäki will be able to do that — let alone earn the top six time that would aid him in putting up the point totals necessary to capture the award.

Right now, the Canucks’ forward lines look something like this (and they still might add a centre to the mix):

Evander Kane – Elias Pettersson – Brock Boeser
Jake DeBrusk – Filip Chytil – Conor Garland
Nils Höglander – Aatu Räty – Kiefer Sherwood
Drew O’Connor – Teddy Blueger – Linus Karlsson

Now, could Lekkerimäki turn in a better camp than Linus Karlsson and earn a spot ahead of him? Maybe! Should the Canucks want Lekkerimäki playing on the fourth line? No, just like they didn’t want him there last season. Can Lekkerimäki win the Calder playing on a fourth line? Also no.

But… if the Canucks go out and get another centre, say Jack Roslovic for example, and move Chytil down to the third line centre spot, could Lekkerimäki find himself in a top nine that would theoretically split ice time relatively evenly? Yes, he could. Something like this, for example:

Evander Kane – Elias Pettersson – Brock Boeser
Jake DeBrusk – Jack Roslovic – Conor Garland
Nils Höglander – Filip Chytil – Jonathan Lekkerimäki
Drew O’Connor – Teddy Blueger – Kiefer Sherwood/Linus Karlsson/Aatu Räty

That looks like a much better scenario for Lekkerimäki to find more success than he’d find playing with Räty or Blueger.

But again, that’s if Lekkerimäki knocks down the door and looks undeniably ready for that type of opportunity after an offseason of training.

Don’t forget that other forwards will be battling for ice time in the Canucks’ bottom six as well. Max Sasson and Arshdeep Bains are two big ones that come to mind, as well as Linus Karlsson, who turned in a big performance en route to the Abbotsford Canucks’ Calder Cup Championship win.

Lekkerimäki will need to earn ice time above all of those guys (and others) if he’s to have any sort of shot at being a serious candidate for the Calder Trophy in 2025-26.

The best case scenario is that Lekkerimäki is a top nine staple for the Canucks this season and that he even spends some time in the top six lines. He’s a regular on the power play (maybe even the first unit?) and he manages to pot 20-25 goals while adding 20 or 30 assists. That feels like the best case scenario.

And even then, will it be enough? Let’s look at who Lekkerimäki will be up against this season.

The odds-on favourite for the Calder Trophy is Montreal’s Ivan Demidov, and rightfully so. After turning in a season that saw him capture the KHL’s rookie of the year award, Demidov logged two regular season games and five playoff games with the Habs. He tallied four points in those seven games, including two assists that came during the playoffs. With Lane Hutson having captured the Calder Trophy this past season, there’s a very real possibility that Montreal finds themselves with back-to-back Calder Trophy winners. The last time an NHL team had back-to-back Calder Trophy winners was the Boston Bruins in 1966-67 and 1967-68. In 1967, Bobby Orr won the award, and in the following year, Derek Sanderson took home the hardware.

Beyond Demidov, all sorts of names pop up (and most of them at far lower odds). Minnesota’s Zeev Buium and San Jose’s Michael Misa are close in odds to finish as the runner-up for the award, but the other names aren’t far off either.

Here are the latest odds from bet365:

To put what you’re seeing into perspective: Demidov is the heavy favourite, then there are favourites to be finalists, and then there are a whole bunch of names after that who could be dark horse candidates to just be finalists. It’s in that final category where Lekkerimäki finds himself. But hey, that’s where Lane Hutson found himself at the start of last season, when most thought it would be a two-horse race between Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov. Instead, Celebrini finished third, and Michkov finished fourth.

So how good are Jonathan Lekkerimäki’s Calder Trophy chances? On July 29th, not so great. But as we’ve determined, it’s a bit of a crapshoot after Demidov, and the path is certainly there for Lekkerimäki to be a key cog in the Canucks’ offence in 2025-26, which could lead to increased Calder consideration.

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