The Vancouver Canucks failed to avenge last season’s playoff loss to the Edmonton Oilers Saturday, as they fell 7-3 to a desperate Oilers side. They get another chance at redemption Tuesday as they host the Calgary Flames, who pulled off a shocking comeback from three goals down versus Vancouver on opening night.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
Flames vs. Canucks odds
- Flames Moneyline Odds: +190
- Canucks Moneyline Odds: -230
- Puck Line Odds: Flames +1.5 (-135, Canucks +1.5 (+115)
- Game Total: Over 6 -115, Under 6 -105
Calgary Flames
In a tough spot versus a division-leading Los Angeles Kings side last night, the Flames put together a really solid effort en route to a deserving 3-1 victory. At 8-5-3 they currently are holding down third in the Pacific ahead of the Canucks, but have played three more games.
They returned home from a three-game Eastern road swing for yesterday’s matchup before flying out to Vancouver for this game. They are 3-2-3 on the road this season and hold a minus-five goal differential in those matchups.
In the last ten games, they hold a 42.23% expected goal share and have been outshot by 3.21 shots per 60 in that span. They have also allowed 31.52 shots per 60 and 3.31 expected goals against/60 (xGA/60) in that span.
On average, it’s been clear that Ryan Hruska’s Flames side has brought a professional compete level this season, and their underlying results are to be expected based on the lack of talent on the roster.
Their defensive play may not be as ugly as some of the numbers suggest, but surprisingly dominant goaltending has still been one of the main reasons for their early overachievement. Calgary ranks ninth in team save percentage this season but was widely projected to have a below-average goaltending tandem in Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar.
Dan Vladar is expected to get this start after resting last night. He holds a .906 save percentage (S%) and 2.60 goals-against average (GAA) in eight appearances this season.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks authored a disappointing performance Saturday versus the Oilers, and Kevin Lankinen finally faltered versus Edmonton’s high-powered attack. Still, they enter with a 7-2-1 record over the last ten games and have done a great job treading water as they await the return of Thatcher Demko.
After signing a hefty contract last offseason, Elias Pettersson’s slow start to the season has been a huge storyline thus far. When you look at how well the Canucks have done with Pettersson playing some of his worst hockey as a Canuck, a potential return to form could make Vancouver into a highly formidable squad.
Pettersson has put up three points in the last three games, and the Canucks have heavily out-chanced the opposition in his minutes in those matchups.
It’s possible Arturs Silovs will be given the start in this matchup as he has not started since October 30 versus New Jersey, so keep your eyes out for goalie confirmations after morning skate. Silovs holds an .808 S% and 4.76 GAA this season.
Best bets for Flames vs. Canucks
The Canucks catch the Flames in a favourable spot here as they skate in leg two of a back-to-back. I wouldn’t talk anyone off of backing the Canucks in this matchup, but also don’t quite see value backing them at the lengthy price of -220.
The Flames have been allowing plenty of chances against this season, and that flaw has been masked by a ninth-best save percentage. They played one of their most complete games of the year last night versus Los Angeles, but it’s still hard to say the talent on the roster will allow such performances to happen night after night.
Pettersson has been trending in the right direction of late and he is beginning to look more like the player he once was. We have seen for years how dangerous Pettersson can be when his head is right, and it looks like he is starting to feel a lot more confident with the puck on his stick.
The Flames provide a good matchup for Pettersson to build on his improved recent play, and this spot provides a good opportunity to buy low on him in the prop market. I see value backing Pettersson to record over 2.5 shots on goal at -105, as well as at -161 for him to record a point.
Best bet: Elias Pettersson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -105, Pettersson to Record A Point -161