The Vancouver Canucks put forth one of their guttiest performances of the season Wednesday in Calgary, earning two points from a critical matchup while playing night two of a back-to-back. They get a drastically more favourable matchup Saturday, when they play host to the Chicago Blackhawks, who own an NHL worst 7-22-5 record on the road.

Connor Bedard will return to his hometown for the second time this season and will be hoping for a better result after posting zero points in a 4-1 loss when the Blackhawks last visited Vancouver on November 16th.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Thanks to their regulation loss to the San Jose Sharks on Thursday evening, the Blackhawks are now only four points above the Sharks for last place in the NHL standings, where their fans are surely hoping they will finish. While they are still above the Sharks in the standings, it certainly feels as though the vibe around Bedard and the Blackhawks is drastically more negative.

That’s probably due to the fact that Bedard’s game has not progressed this season compared to last, and the Vancouver native is clearly very frustrated with the way things are going. Bedard has put up 0.78 points-per-game this season, after generating 0.89 points-per-game as a rookie last year. His xDef rating of -6 through 66 games (per Evolving Hockey) is highly comparable to last year’s final mark of -7.4.

Bedard recorded zero points and zero shots on goal in Thursday’s loss and received a 10-minute misconduct for mouthing off to an official mid-way through the third period. This matchup feels like a massive spot for Bedard to get himself right and build some positivity entering the final stretch of the season.

While it’s easy to rip on Bedard’s game, it’s fair to say that he has not played with another forward who would be a top-liner on the majority of NHL rosters this season. Despite having little help, his production over the last two years is also still highly comparable to the majority of recent first overall picks, which should help quell concerns over his potential.

The 2024 second overall pick, Artyom Levshunov, made his NHL debut on March 10th and will play his third NHL game in this matchup. It may be early to criticize his selection at second overall, but due to his modest puck skill, it is becoming highly plausible Chicago would have been better off selecting a number of other skaters with that pick, which is not simply hindsight 20-20.

Ivan Demidov and Bennett Sennecke look likely to be game-changing forwards, while Zayne Pareykh and Zeev Buium look likely to be more impactful blue-liners.

Over the last 10 games Chicago holds an expected goal share of 39.34%, and has allowed 32.07 shots against per 60.

While Seth Jones could certainly find his game with the Florida Panthers, it seemed highly unlikely that he would ever turn things around in Chicago, and GM Kyle Davidson made a smart move dealing Jones away for Spencer Knight and a first-round pick, retaining a reasonable 26% of Jones’s 9.5 million dollar salary.

Knight had been enjoying a quietly strong season for the Panthers and has had a great start to his career with the Blackhawks. He holds a +9.9 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 27 appearances this season and is expected to get the start Saturday.

The Canucks found a way to earn two critical points on Wednesday, in a matchup which they were deserving winners. Vancouver held a 19-12 edge in high danger scoring chances and held a 4.69 to 2.14 edge in expected goal share. Quinn Hughes had a highly positive impact in his return to the lineup, and Elias Pettersson came through with a critical goal late in the third.

Hughes was certainly not eased back into the lineup, as he played 29:48 in Wednesday’s win, partially because Elias Pettersson (D) left the game due to injury. While Hughes once again looked to be in considerable pain between shifts on the bench, you wouldn’t know it watching the incredible defender on the ice.

Elias Pettersson continues to take steps in the right direction, as he has recorded three goals and four points over the last four games while posting solid underlying results. He’s still not looking nearly as dynamic as we have seen when he is at his best, but if he can continue to offer better play moving forward it will boost the Canucks upside tremendously.

Tyler Myers is considered probable after missing Wednesday’s matchup due to injury. Elias Pettersson (D) is also expected to be available if head coach Rick Tocchet desires to play him.

It’s unclear whether the Canucks will start Kevin Lankinen or Arturs Silovs in goal. However, according to morning skate, Silovs was the first goaltender off the ice and will likely draw the start tonight as the Canucks play a critical matchup versus the Utah Hockey Club tomorrow. Lankinen has made two straight starts, so resting him tonight and saving him for the bigger matchup tomorrow seems more likely. Silovs holds a -9.7 GSAx rating and .858 save percentage in nine appearances this season.

Of all the remaining games on Chicago’s schedule, this is probably one of the ones they would like to win the most. It’s pretty clear that Bedard is unhappy with the way things are going, and the rest of the roster will surely be aware that he would love to return home with a win.

It’s also quite possible that the Canucks risk it and start Silovs in this matchup, which would mean the Blackhawks have a considerable edge in goal if they opt to start Knight. It’s ugly, but at +238, my lean would be with the Blackhawks in terms of a side in this matchup.

The angle that I do see value betting into is that Bedard will respond with a much stronger performance in this matchup. At his best, he still looks to be a truly dynamic offensive star, and this could be a good time to buy-low on him in the prop market in what will likely be an inspired performance.

At +114, I see value backing Bedard to record over 2.5 shots on goal and would play it down to +104.