The Vancouver Canucks will wrap a lengthy six-game road trip Sunday afternoon when they take on the league-leading Winnipeg Jets.

The injury-plagued Canucks will likely need to dig deep and author one of their best performances of the season to find a win in this matchup, as the Jets hold an incredible home record of 27-6-4 this season. The Jets will be out for revenge in this spot, as the Canucks defeated them 6-2 in Vancouver on March 18th.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

After a wild 7-6 shootout loss in Columbus on Friday evening, the Canucks are now 2-1-2 in the first five games of their strenuous Eastern road trip. Considering the absences from the lineup, 2-1-2 is nothing to scoff at, and it continues to appear as though head coach Rick Tocchet’s side has elevated its game over the last stretch of play.

The problem is that the St. Louis Blues are in the midst of a nine-game winning streak, and suddenly, Vancouver will likely need at least 13 points in its final nine games in order to have a chance at the postseason. The Minnesota Wild are now looking like the more attainable target, especially as the Canucks play Minnesota on April 12th and could earn a four-point swing in that matchup.

Earlier on in the campaign, earning a single point versus a rested, healthy Columbus side could be viewed as a positive. However, the fact that the Canucks were up three goals after the first on a night where Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins was simply not good makes the loss harder to stomach.

The Blue Jackets held a 15-10 edge in high-danger scoring chances and led 3.35 to 2.61 in expected goals. Kevin Lankinen was also far from good, but he still authored a better performance than his counterpart.

In Friday’s game preview I noted how it would have been logical for Tocchet to stick with Thatcher Demko, and the Canucks likely would have earned a win if they had done so. In fairness to the Canucks’ coaching staff, the decision to start Lankinen surely revolved around managing Demko’s workload given his recent injury.

While Demko has not been confirmed, it would be downright shocking if he is not the starter in this matchup. Demko has played very well in his two starts since returning from injury and now holds a +3.1 GSAx rating and .892 save percentage in 19 appearances this season.

Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil and Nils Höglander will all remain sidelined in this matchup, so we will likely see Vancouver ice a similar offensive unit to Friday’s matchup.

Even if the Canucks do ultimately come up short in the playoff race, there is a positive to be taken from this final push, as young talents such as Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Aatu Räty and Linus Karlsson have been effective playing in important games at the NHL level.

The Canucks offensive play has been significantly improved recently, as they have scored 3.80 goals per game in their last ten matchups. They have allowed plenty of goals against, though, and their last 10 games have featured a combined average of 7.66 goals.

Despite their incredible record of 50-19-4, the Jets still have plenty of motivation to finish the season in strong form. The Dallas Stars are only four points back in the division race, and whoever wins the division will avoid a nightmare first-round matchup with the Colorado Avalanche.

For that reason, head coach Scott Arniel may still opt to start Hart Trophy betting favourite Connor Hellebuyck in this matchup, despite the fact that he has already played 56 games and would be making his third start in a row. Hellebuyck holds a +36.0 GSAx rating and a .925 save percentage this season.

Oddsmakers have had a tough time giving the Jets enough credit with Hellebuyck in goal this season, as betting Winnipeg in each of his starts would have yielded a 27.1% ROI.

While Hellebuyck’s incredible play remains the greatest reason for the Jets’ tremendous record, they have scored 3.45 goals per game and are more than capable of winning high-scoring matchups. They own the league’s second-best power play success rate of 30.1%, which has helped the team overachieve its expected offensive outputs.

In 13 games this month, the Jets have generated 3.11 xGF/60, which ranks 17th in the NHL. They have regressed offensively where it counts as well, as they have scored 3.07 goals per game in that span.

The Jets are without a significant piece in Gabriel Vilardi, who has spent the entirety of the season playing on the top line and top power play unit. Vilardi’s absence provides an opportunity for Alex Iafallo to play top-line minutes, and he took advantage in Friday’s matchup, scoring two goals in 16:34 of time-on-ice.

There’s no time for the Canucks to make excuses, but a date in Winnipeg to wrap up a lengthy road trip is about as difficult a spot as the NHL can offer. Vancouver has had a number of players step up in its recent matchups, but there’s no disputing that the team’s current center depth is quite concerning.

The Canucks have clearly played better recently though, and from an analytical perspective, are in one of their best runs of play of the season. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but I’m not willing to back the Jets at -220 in this matchup.

The over may look appealing to many bettors, as the Canucks games have all been surprisingly high-event recently and are averaging way past 5.5 goals. Still, a total of 5.5 looks fair to me, as the Jets’ offence has come down to earth, and at their core, Rick Tocchet’s side should still be a lower event team with Demko in goal.

There does look to be value backing Iafallo to record a point at +112, as oddsmakers don’t seem to have made enough of an adjustment to his recently inherited roles.

Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor have been two of the league’s most productive skaters this season, and Iafallo is a capable replacement for Vilardi. The Jets’ power play has also been incredible, and Iafallo has overtaken Vilardi’s role on the top unit.