The Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off Saturday in what is each team’s final matchup prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off break.

The Leafs will be looking to exact some revenge for their 3-0 loss to the Canucks on January 11th in this season’s previous meeting. The Canucks were skating in leg two of a travelling back-to-back in that matchup and closed as heavy underdogs at +160.

Toronto has won all three games of its current Western road trip by a combined goal differential of 13-7. The Leafs are currently playing with a near-fully healthy lineup, which has rarely been the case this season, as they have consistently played through numerous key injuries.

The Canucks are also in good form, having played to a record of 5-1-1 over the last six games, which has propelled them back into a playoff spot. The status of Canucks Captain Quinn Hughes for this matchup is still up in the air at the time of writing, and he is considered a game-time decision.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Leafs’ current three-game winning streak is already their third streak of three or more wins in the year 2025, which certainly seems pretty impressive at first glance. However, sandwiched between those winning streaks have been two three-game losing skids, and a lack of consistency has been a problem of late.

Playing with a healthier lineup will hopefully help resolve those issues to some extent. With John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and goaltender Anthony Stolarz all off the IR, the Leafs are now icing close to a complete roster and have no needle-movers sidelined due to injury entering this matchup.

Mitch Marner also returned from a single-game absence in the Leafs’ last matchup, netting his 71st point of the season versus the Seattle Kraken.

Head coach Craig Berube is currently offering a different-looking top-six than we have seen at any point this season, in part due to the fact that the Leafs have rarely had all of their top offensive pieces in the lineup at once.

The Leafs’ current top line of Auston Matthews, Max Domi and Knies has been highly effective, with an 89.5% expected goal share in a small sample of 23 minutes together, outscoring opponents 2-0 and generating 4.43 xGF/60.

With Knies and Domi on Matthews’ wings, that allows Berube to ice a stacked second line of William Nylander, Marner and Tavares, which is, on paper, arguably the most talented “second” unit in the league. In just over 31 minutes together thus far, the trio holds a 53.3% expected goal share and a plus-1 goal differential.

The Leafs’ much-maligned power play unit has been in excellent form of late, with a league-leading success rate of 39.1% over the last 10 games. The asterisk to that stat is that many of those matchups did not feature exactly the same five-forward top unit we will see in tonight’s matchup, so it will be interesting to see if those strong results continue with all the top power play regulars now all in the lineup.

The eye test tells us the Leafs look to be playing like a sharper team currently than they were last month, and the underlying results agree with the idea that the team is currently in better form. Over the last five games, the Leafs hold a 56.23 percent expected goal share at even strength and have allowed only 2.09 xGA/60.

Stolarz made a strong return to the lineup versus the Kraken, stopping 29 of 30 shots faced to raise his season save percentage to .929%, which ranks first in the NHL.

However, Joseph Woll is considered probable to make the start in this matchup as the Leafs look to ease their top guy back into the mix. Woll has been excellent in his own right, with a save percentage of .909 and a +12.8 GSAx rating in 29 games played this season.

It wasn’t the prettiest of wins, but the Canucks were ultimately able to get two desperately needed points from Thursday’s matchup with the 32nd-ranked San Jose Sharks. The Sharks held a 16-11 edge in high-danger chances and generated 34 shots on goal but struggled to finish a number of looks versus Thatcher Demko, who looks to be finding his game at an important time.

While I was banking on another strong showing from recently acquired forward Filip Chytil, it was the other fresh face upfront in Drew O’Connor who put on a show, earning the game’s First Star by scoring the winner in overtime via a penalty shot. O’Connor finished with six shots on goal and a plus-1 rating in 14:07 of time-on-ice.

It’s unclear if Hughes will return from his four-game absence in this matchup and what his status will be for the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off. Marcus Pettersson and Elias Pettersson (D) have both been in strong form and should raise the upside of the Canucks defensive core moving forward, but it’s still abundantly clear just how critical Hughes is to the Canucks right now.

It was another quiet night for Elias Pettersson (F), who has put up just one point in four games since J.T. Miller was traded on January 31st. One of Pettersson’s last truly dominant games came in the Canucks’ upset win over the Leafs last month, and his side will likely need more from him to find success in this difficult matchup.

While the Canucks have not yet confirmed their starting goaltender for this matchup, it seems likely that head coach Rick Tocchet will opt to ride Thatcher Demko, who holds a .952 save percentage and 1.25 GAA in his last four appearances.

All of the Canucks newcomers have made a difference thus far, and they have quietly put together a solid 5-1-1 run with wins over some quality opponents. It certainly seems possible that they will continue their improved play in the season’s final third, particularly if Hughes is healthy and playing at his best.

The Leafs have had a great start to this road trip, though, and the top-six and power play currently look lethal with Knies and Tavares back in the lineup. In terms of betting sides, I’d argue the Leafs deserve to be slightly larger favourites in this game, and if -135 is still available with Hughes confirmed to be out, the Leafs would be worthy of a bet.

At -140, I do believe there is value in backing Tavares to record a point, regardless of Hughes’s status. He’s playing on a stacked second line alongside Marner and Nylander and also factors into the Leafs’ red-hot top power play unit. He has recorded a point in three straight games since returning to the lineup, and we are getting a good price to back that trend at -140 given his current usage.