The Vancouver Canucks will once again look to earn their first win of the post-J.T. Miller era Tuesday evening, but it won’t be easy as they host the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avalanche have been one of the best teams in the league since acquiring goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood and are 15-11-0 on the road this season. They are 3-2-0 since dealing away superstar winger Mikko Rantanen for Martin Necas and Jack Drury from the Carolina Hurricanes.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Avalanche made a shocking trade on January 24th when they dealt their leading goal-scorer, Rantanen, who was a huge part of their 2021-22 Stanley Cup Championship roster. Rantanen has put up 683 points in 623 games, and the trade has been widely viewed as a huge win for the Hurricanes as a result.

While the deal is pretty shocking from Colorado’s perspective, some arguments suggest it could work out well for GM Joe Sakic. Rantanen played almost exclusively alongside Nathan MacKinnon during his time with the Avs and also spent the majority of his minutes with Cale Makar and Devon Toews. He was commanding a huge salary increase this summer, and the team likely believed his value had climbed past a number they were willing to pay, especially as it was likely inflated due to his usage.

Necas has put up 60 points in 54 games this season and was averaging just over 18:00 of time-on-ice with Carolina. He had spent a lot of time playing on the team’s second and third lines, and at the time, the trade had been carrying the second line to strong results playing alongside Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Eric Robinson.

In Necas’ initial three games with the Avs, he skated alongside MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin on the top line. They generated 3.75 xGF/60 and held an expected goal share of 63.6%.

Head coach Jared Bednar has altered his top line slightly over the last two games, pairing Arturri Lehkonen with Necas and MacKinnon. The results have been comparably dominant, as the trio holds a 61.1% expected goal share and generated 4.21 xGF/60.

Necas proved to be an excellent player with the man advantage this season, and the Avalanche’s top unit has looked equally effective with him taking over Rantanen’s spot, albeit in a small sample of five games. The Avalanche’s power play has succeeded on 33.3% of opportunities since Necas’ arrival and generated 9.53 xGF/60, compared to a season-long average of 8.04 xGF/60.

Sakic likely believes that the money saved by placing Necas in Rantanen’s role could be critical moving forward, as roster depth has been a concern.

Casey Mittelstadt has struggled in his second season with the team and is considered likely to be traded away prior to the deadline. Valeri Nichushkin’s absence has also greatly reduced the offensive upside of the second line, and he is expected to remain sidelined until after the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Blackwood is expected to get the start in goal in this matchup. He holds a 2.37 GAA and .916 save percentage this season, and enters off back-to-back shutouts versus the Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis Blues.

It takes time to fairly declare a victor from every trade, and Canucks’ fans will likely be keen to keep that idea in mind as Miller has been excellent in his first two matchups as a New York Ranger.

Sunday’s matchup certainly offered some hope to Canucks’ faithful though, as Filip Chytil scored a beauty in his first game with his new side.

Chytil held an 82.12% expected goal share in a whopping 20:12 of time on ice versus the Detroit Red Wings, displaying quality play in all three zones. While it’s just one game, Chytil had been highly effective for the Rangers this season in limited minutes and could prove to be worthy of a greater role.

Marcus Pettersson also looked good in his Canucks’ debut, immediately taking on a huge role due to Quinn Hughes’ absence. Pettersson played 25:57, spending the majority of those minutes alongside Tyler Myers at even strength. In 20:25 minutes together, Myers and Pettersson held a 85% expected goal share, and the Canucks held an 8-4 edge in shots on goal.

Hughes will remain sidelined for this matchup, leaving a huge hole on the top pairing and top power play. Filip Hronek will likely remain as the quarterback on the top unit due to Hughes’ absence.

Drew O’Connor also put forth a strong performance in Sunday’s matchup,  bringing a high level of energy to the team’s third line.

One of the negative storylines from Sunday’s game was the play of Elias Pettersson, who did not step up as I expected and looked relatively lethargic. Brock Boeser was also quiet once again, and the team will need better from those two to have success in this tough matchup against a Colorado side trotting out several of the league’s very best skaters.

Thatcher Demko has been confirmed as the Canucks starting goaltender. He holds a .873 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average (GAA) in 14 appearances this season.

The Canucks getting only one point despite their pair of weekend matchups was certainly unlucky, and as someone who has been quite low on this team all year, I’m not sold on the idea that the season is completely lost. All three of the Canucks acquisitions played well in Sunday’s matchup and will hopefully help the team turn things around moving forward.

However, Hughes’ absence is obviously gigantic. Not only is the deserving Norris Winner right now, but there’s an argument to be made he should be in the Hart Trophy discussion based on what he has meant to the team. With that in mind, Vancouver does look to be getting enough credit in the betting market as only +130 underdogs.

There are some flaws among the Avs roster to nitpick, and I’m personally not sold on them as a cup favourite currently based on their lack of depth. Their top-line has arguably been even better since the addition of Necas, and this looks to be a good spot to keep riding that unit to be productive.

Necas has created a ton of scoring chances in his brief span with the team and should remain highly productive while playing alongside MacKinnon and on the team’s top power play unit. He is a zone-entry machine and does a good job of helping sustain prolonged stretches of play in the offensive zone.

Necas has recorded eight assists over the last eight games and four in five matchups with the Avalanche. With Hughes sidelined, the Avs’ top line should have a great chance of doing some damage in this matchup, and I believe the chances we see Necas record an assist are better than the current price of -117 implies.