The Vancouver Canucks will wrap up their lengthy six-game road trip with a date in Minnesota against the league-leading Wild. Vancouver has played to a record of 4-1-0 to start the road trip and holds the NHL’s best record on the road at 10-2-0.

The Wild have remained red-hot amid a soft scheduling patch ahead of this matchup, with a record of 6-2-2 over the last ten. They have played to a record of 6-1-3 on home ice and enter this matchup off of two days rest with no travel between games.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Canucks continue to find ways to win, as a number of skaters have stepped up to help cover up for some key absences from the lineup.

Jake DeBrusk has found his stride with a spectacular road trip and has played his best hockey in his brief tenure as a Canuck. Captain Quinn Hughes has narrowed the gap in the Norris Trophy race, and Kevin Lankinen continues to play like a true number-one starter with Thatcher Demko still sidelined.

During this road trip, Canucks’ opponents hold a 63-42 edge in high-danger scoring chances. They have been out-attempted by 23 in even-strength play and hold a breakeven goal differential at even strength. That’s coming versus a slate of opponents who are all currently outside of the playoffs.

It’s not necessarily saying they are lucky, but you could point to a play or two that could have swung every matchup and in time some of those breaks will go the other way.

In an effort to find more balanced defensive pairings with Hronek sidelined, Rick Tocchet has adjusted his defensive pairings ahead of this game. Hughes and Tylers Myers dominated the opposition in Buffalo and Detroit, but odds are any pairing holding Hughes will post that kind of results right now, so the hope will be that this new look helps the bottom two pairings find better results.

Kevin Lankinen is the projected Canucks starter. Keep your eyes out for official confirmation after the morning skate, though, as Lankinen has played four of the last five, and the gap between him and Arturs Silovs has been quite significant. In 17 appearances, Lankinen holds a .907 save percentage (S%) and a 2.65 goals against average (GAA).

The Wild couldn’t get a break in 2023-24, as they suffered through one of the league’s worst injury situations en route to a disappointing 39-34-9 finish. Based on the projected strength of their defensive core and the fact that Filip Gustavsson was just one year removed from a Vezina calibre season, I thought they would likely bounce back into a playoff spot, which was a fairly optimistic outlook.

Even more favourable observers were certainly not predicting they’d be in the Presidents Trophy race. They have benefitted from a soft schedule and feature below-average special teams, but aside from that, it’s hard to argue they will fall off too greatly.

The Wild rank first in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) this season and also rank first in actual goals allowed (2.33 GAA). They feature a highly mobile defence core that does a great job of driving play the other way, which could get better in time if the addition of 2022 sixth-overall pick David Jiricek works out.

While they don’t have a ton of offensive firepower further down the lineup card, Kirill Kaprizov has some legitimate help in players like Matthew Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi. The majority of their key forwards are excellent on both sides of the puck, with Boldy and Eriksson Ek, in particular, being tremendous defensively.

It’s unclear whether or not this start will go to Gustavsson or Marc-Andre Fleury, and the decision is significant from a handicapping perspective. Gustavsson is in the race for the Vezina, while Fleury holds -2.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and .904 S% after playing to a -11.1 GSAx rating in 2023-24.

The Canucks proved me wrong with their overtime win in Detroit on Sunday, but even still, I’d argue that at +120, the Wings were a solid bet in that matchup, given that the game clearly was a toss-up. The Canucks overall process continues to look fairly modest, as they have been out-chanced consistently in even-strength play of late.

The Canucks may be being overvalued too much based on the actual results, as in time, winning while generating far fewer chances won’t prove sustainable.

The Wild rank first in the NHL in points percentage and have been dominant in even-strength play. They are getting elite goaltending from Gustavsson, who has been well-insulated by excellent defensive play.

If Gustavsson is in goal, I believe this game is priced too closely, and there is value backing the Wild to win at -135. If we do see confirmations of Silovs vs Fleury, I would also bet the over 5.5 in the brief period of which it would be available.