Talk about a comeback.

The Vancouver Canucks came all the way back against the Nashville Predators, managing to take a 4-3 decision in a shootout. It was definitely a treat of a game to get to watch, with the stats actually favouring the Canucks for the first time in a blue moon. There was a lot to like, and even in spite of going down 3-1 with a rocky second period, Vancouver battled hard to get themselves a very strong third, good enough to secure two points at home.

Here’s the win, by the numbers.

As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.

The first period was a brilliantly strong start for the Canucks (which has been a rarity all season). They came out and dominated both puck possession and scoring chances, laying on the throttle until the waning moments of the first. They finished with an incredibly strong 69.44 CF% and 68.95 xGF%, out-chancing Nashville by a 15-5 margin and posting a 9-3 advantage in high-danger chances. That led to a 1.63-0.74 xGF lead for the Canucks in that category too – but from the trend line, it was clear to see that Nashville managed to swing the momentum in their favour towards the end of the frame and captializing for a goal.

The second saw the Predators continue that trend, the momentum following them through the intermission and putting the Canucks back on their heels. It wasn’t awful from a Vancouver perspective, but it was also not great, as Nashville seized a 62.96 CF% share and 55.76 xGF% advantage. If it’s any consolation, the Canucks only gave up 3 high-danger chances in the frame. However, that second intermission was enough to wake the Canucks back up, who rallied furiously for a 73.33 CF% and 71.88 xGF% lead, enough to get them back on even terms by the end of regulation. It’s that kind of effort that hasn’t been present for long stretches of the year, and definitely a welcome change from the usual.

This is the first heat map in a long while to actually favour the Canucks. Vancouver outchanced Nashville overall by a 25-18 margin, with a 15-7 lead in high-danger chances at 5v5 action. It’s another welcome change from the usual to see that bigger hot spot for the Canucks in the slot area, and not much of anything given up to the Preds defensively. That goal from the goal line does stand out in an ugly way, but other than that, there’s not too much to complain about here. If we’re getting really nitpicky, the distribution of chances was not ideal, as the Canucks posted 9 of their HDCF in the first and just 3 in each period after that. However, they also were never in a high-danger chance deficit, so perhaps there’s still a silver lining even in that.

Corsi Champ: Filip Hronek continues to lead by example on the back end. The Czech defenceman recorded the team’s best CF% at 72.09, holding an absurd 14-3 shot advantage for the Canucks during his 5v5 TOI. The goal and assist were very much earned for him, holding a team-best 1.89 xGF and second-best 81.17 xGF% during even strength play. The scoring chances were heavily tilted in the Canucks’ favour as well when Hronek was on the ice, sitting at 15-4 overall and 7-1 in high-danger chances. Not a bad night at all for the player who has been Vancouver’s best defenceman ever since the Quinn Hughes trade.

Corsi Chump: Victor Mancini has been hanging out towards the bottom of the Corsi charts, and against the Predators, it was no different. Bringing up the rear with a 45.00 CF%, it made sense that he was on ice for two goals against at 5v5 action, recording a team-worst 32.07 xGF% while facing lesser opposition in general. Mancini was on ice for a 3-5 hole in high-danger chances, which made up a big chunk of the 7 high-danger chances that Nashville had overall. Suffice it to say that it wasn’t the greatest game from the young defenceman.

xGF: Oh my goodness. Seeing Elias Pettersson leading one of these categories has also been rare all season, and against Nashville, he posted the team’s best xGF% at 88.67. It was an excellent two-way effort against Filip Forsberg’s line, as Pettersson held a 7-2 scoring chance lead and 5-0 high-danger advantage as well. That naturally resulted in a team-best 0.13 xGA, while his 1.04 xGF was good enough for 5th amongst all Canuck skaters. He didn’t find the scoresheet point-wise, but numbers like these for Petey haven’t been commonplace all year – so at the very least, it’s nice to see the right things showing up on the statsheet.

GSAx: It was not Nikita Tolopilo’s finest outing against Nashville, but that’s probably because of the really unfortunate 3-1 goal. The Predators only managed to generate 2.02 xGF, meaning that with three goals against Tolopilo, the netminder finished with a -0.98 GSAx. Two of the three were high-danger goals against, which is par for the course and shouldn’t really be ogled at all too much. However, with that 1 low-danger goal against, it likely dragged Tolopilo’s overall numbers down. Other than that goal against, it wasn’t a bad outing at all, and he did enough to keep Vancouver in it as they got him some run support.

Actually getting a top 6 contribution: It is wild to see what happens when the top 6 actually plays like a top 6. The Ohgren – Rossi – Boeser line was dynamite and stole the headlines, posting two goals at 5v5 with a team-best 75.00 CF% and a second-best 0.66 xGF. The scoring chances stood at 7-2 with a 3-1 high-danger chance advantage, and it certainly helped drive a lot of the Canucks’ offence throughout the night. However, what will probably go under the radar was the contributions of the O’Connor – Pettersson – Kane line. While their CF% was only 62.96, third best amongst all forward units, they took on the best the Predators had to offer and still came out with a team-best 0.77 xGF, 0.11 xGA, and 87.71 xGF% with a 5-0 margin in high-danger chances. This line didn’t find the scoresheet but did everything right statistically, more than helping the Canucks build momentum and connecting shifts one after another for the win.

It was a nice treat to watch this game. The Canucks have been starved for a game like this for a good while now, and being able to impose a statistical advantage to the extent that they did over the Predators was definitely welcome to watch. Honestly, it probably deserved to be a regulation win, but the Canucks did a great job in finding another gear to tie this game back up. Crazy what can happen when your best players actually play like your best players.

Vancouver is back in action tonight as they host the Seattle Kraken