The Vancouver Canucks will host the Los Angeles Kings in their first game following a strenuous five-game road trip. The Canucks posted a record of 1-2-2 on the road trip, including an ugly 6-1 loss on Tuesday versus the Winnipeg Jets. They are just 7-8-6 on home ice this season, but the majority of those matchups were played with a number of key bodies out of the lineup.

The Kings are just 10-10-4 on the road this season and are just 1-2-0 during their current five-game road trip. They currently hold a five-point lead over the Canucks with two games in hand.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Despite their 1-2-0 record, there’s certainly an argument to be made that the Kings have played well throughout this road trip thus far. They were able to earn an overtime victory in Winnipeg on Friday before suffering a tough-luck loss in Calgary the next night, followed by a close 1-0 loss versus the red-hot Edmonton Oilers on Monday.

Across the three matchups they hold a 54.41% expected goal share and allowed only 21.43 shots against per 60. They have conceded just four goals against, reducing their goals against average to 2.41, which is the best mark in the NHL.

Over the last 10 games, the Kings hold an xGA/60 of 2.60, despite seven of those matchups coming against playoff teams, including three against elite offensive teams: the Edmonton Oilers (twice), Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals.

Kings captain Anze Kopitar continues to set the tone for a forward corps which is highly responsible on the defensive side of the puck. Their lineup is littered with quality even-strength play-drivers, which has helped to insulate a defence core which has missed No. 1 defender Drew Doughty for the entire season.

Darcy Kuemper has been excellent in his first season back with the Kings. Last offseason, he was acquired for Pierre-Luc Dubois in a trade that has greatly benefited both sides. In 21 appearances, Kuemper has a .923 save percentage and 2.11 GAA. He is expected to start in this matchup.

There’s an argument to be made that this year’s version of the Kings may be better than last year’s, particularly if Doughty returns in strong form. One of the main reasons they have been unable to get past Edmonton in the first round has been a shaky power play, however, and the Kings power play has been a clear weakness once again, with a success rate of just 14.9% this season.

One of the Canucks’ many weaknesses this season has been an inability to string two quality performances together. Their 4-0 victory over the Florida Panthers on December 12th,  3-1 victory over the Colorado Avalanche on December 16th, and 3-0 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday were arguably their best three games of the year, and they followed each of them up with a loss.

Perhaps the problem has been that those quality wins are a less accurate reflection of what the Canucks really are right now than the ugly losses are. Over the last 21 games, the Canucks are 7-7-7 and have scored just 2.52 goals per game while allowing 3.14 goals against per game.

They hold a 46.85% expected goal share in that span and have generated just 23.04 shots for per 60, which is the lowest rate in the league during that sample of play.

In time, Filip Hronek’s return to the blue line should help alleviate some of the team’s recent concerns. If head coach Rick Tocchet opts to keep Hronek with Quinn Hughes on the top pairing, as is the case based on today’s morning skate, that still leaves two highly unconvincing defensive units which will likely continue to struggle to move the puck.

Another key reason the Canucks have been overvalued in the betting markets this season has been the significant drop-off in form from both J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, which has obviously been covered ad nauseam by Canucks media. It’s hard to win a trade dealing away that type of talent unless it involves meaningful futures, but it’s starting to seem more apparent that the rumoured issues within the locker room may force the team to attempt to do so.

Thatcher Demko has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He holds a .883 save percentage and 3.17 GAA in eight starts this season.

The Canucks haven’t lived up to their potential this season, and obviously, the big reason why has been the amount of matchups playing without a number of key skaters. I felt they were a live underdog on Tuesday in Winnipeg, which obviously ended up being a disastrous take as the Canucks played one of their worst games of the season.

Vancouver will likely bring a much sharper performance in this game, and with only Joshua currently on the IR, it could start to find better results soon, and obviously the team should be highly desperate to turn things around right now. Still, the idea of a potential resurgence from the Canucks seems to be getting a lot of credit, given that they are slight favourites in this matchup versus a high-quality Kings side.

Los Angeles has been one of the league’s best sides defensively this season, both analytically speaking and in terms of actual goals allowed. Kuemper has performed like a true No. 1 goaltender, and his team has insulated him very well with well-structured play.

The Kings feature strong depth both upfront and on the back end, and the only consistent flaw in their game this season has once again been their subpar results on the power play. Even still, they hold a +21 goal differential and arguably look even better than their record suggests.

At -110 or better, I see value in backing the Kings to snap their two-game losing skid in this matchup.