The Vancouver Canucks played one of their best games of the season Saturday at Scotiabank Arena, as they bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-0 with a highly structured defensive performance. It will likely take a similar effort for them to find success in Tuesday’s matchup, as they will be taking on a Winnipeg Jets side which holds a record of 16-4-3 on home ice this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Due to icy weather conditions, the Canucks were forced to travel to Toronto Saturday afternoon for the second leg of their back-to-back. They responded to a tough situation with one of their best performances of the season, allowing only four high-danger chances against, as well as just 20 shots despite playing 59 minutes of the game with a lead versus a quality opponent.

Elias Pettersson put on a defensive clinic on Saturday, which was a key reason the Canucks were able to keep the Leafs’ elite forwards at bay. While Pettersson’s effort has looked lethargic at times this season, his sky-high hockey IQ has still allowed him to be a more effective player than often seems to be credited.

It has been confirmed that Filip Hronek will return from a 21-game absence in this matchup. Prior to Hronek’s injury, the Canucks were 11-7-3, and during the time in which he has been sidelined, Vancouver holds a record of 8-6-7. There’s obviously been more to the Canucks’ recent drop-off than just Hronek’s injury, but his return to a struggling blue-line should still prove quite notable nonetheless.

Hronek will start on the top pairing alongside Quinn Hughes, but head coach Rick Tocchet noted that he will monitor Hronek’s minutes in this matchup.

Since December 1st, the Canucks hold an expected goal share of just 47.67% and a record of just 7-6-7. Even with Hronek back in the mix, the team has a clear need for another high-quality puck-moving defenceman.

To turn a positive spin on the Canucks’ start, though, we really haven’t seen Pettersson and J.T. Miller both healthy and in good form at the same time at any point in this season, and it feels easy to forget what a difference that could make. Having two elite centres is arguably the most common theme from Stanley Cup-winning rosters, and we aren’t that far removed from the time when it was believed the Canucks’ roster featured that strength.

Kevin Lankinen has been confirmed as Vancouver’s starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a 2.51 GAA and .906% save percentage in 29 appearances this season.

The Winnipeg Jets are out to prove that they are a better team this season than they were in 2023-24, in which they put up 110 points before a disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Colorado Avalanche. Through 44 games the Jets once again hold a fairly modest analytical profile, as they hold a 50.16% expected goal share. They rank in the middle of the league in both chances generated and allowed.

Connor Hellebuyck has been absolutely fantastic this season, and has even garnered some Hart Trophy votes on a number of midseason mock votes. He holds a +27 GSAx rating, which paces all goaltenders by a fairly wide margin. He’s allowed just 2.02 goals against per game, and holds a record of 26-6-2. He has been confirmed as the Jets starter in this contest.

The Jets offence ranks third overall in scoring 3.15 goals for per game this season, but that number is carried to some extent by their scorching hot opening month of the season. Over the last 25 games, the Jets have averaged 3.04 goals per game, which ranks 14th in the NHL.

While their even-strength chance generation is quite modest relative to their incredible record, that flaw has been mitigated by the fact that they hold the best power play in the NHL. The Jets power play has succeeded 32.3% of the time this season.

There is an argument to be made that fading Hellebuyck is never a good betting strategy, as he is off to a 26-6-2 start after winning the Vezina trophy last season. The Jets overall play has looked pretty mediocre during their current home-stand, though, in which they hold a record of 2-2-1.

There is an argument to be made that this could be a good time to buy on the Canucks as they enter off one of their best performances of the season. Pettersson was fantastic versus Toronto and has the potential to be a top-10 centre in the league at his best. Hronek’s return should help shore up Canucks blue line, which has been a massive concern over the last two months.

It’s never fun to fade Hellebuyck, as the Jets have shown a propensity to win ‘coin-flip’ type games at an absurd rate with him in the crease over the last two seasons. It seems quite possible that we will see the Canucks carry a surprising amount of the play in this matchup, though, and I believe we are getting a good price to buy on the idea that Vancouver is about to turn things around.

The Jets should win this game more often than not, but I believe they are overvalued at -153 and see value in backing the Canucks to steal a win on the road at +133 or better.