Many of us have to increasingly pay attention to curves as we get older, but not in the same way that <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/canucksarmy-complete-top-20-vancouver-canucks-prospect-ranking">NHL players</a> do.
Age curves are models of statistical likelihood. There are different models and modes of presentation, but all they really do is track when NHL players put up their best seasons of production and then use that data to attempt to predict when the average NHLer will hit their ‘prime’ and ‘peak’ years.
The results vary a little depending on inputs and weighting. But most come out stating that most NHL forwards, at least, hit their prime in their mid-20s, between the ages of about 23 and 27. By the time they hit age 27, most NHL forwards will have already put up their best statistical season.
Most NHL forwards, that is. There are always exceptions to the rule, and there are outliers in any model.
And for some strange reason, the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/wdytt-summer-silliness-obscure-former-canucks-cant-out-head">Vancouver Canucks</a> seem to be a franchise with a particular aptitude for breaking the age curve.
We’re talking, of course, about <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/five-year-oscar-test-canucks-jt-miller-trade">JT Miller. Not just Miller</a>, but we’ll start there.
Last season, Miller had a career year. Or, we should say, what looks like a career year so far. As will become apparent, making age-related bets about Miller is a losing proposition.
Miller started the 2023/24 season at age 29 and turned 30 in March. He finished the season scoring 37 goals, 66 assists, and 103 points, beating his previous high of 99 points set two seasons prior.
It’s not something that happens very often.
The age curve became a big point of discussion around Miller when he signed that seven-year, $8 million extension back in September 2022 and for at least the calendar year prior. Many at the time, including this author, thought that extending Miller at age 28 after a career season — and at a salary based on the production of that career season — was a fool’s game.
The statistical models all said that it was very, very likely that Miller had hit his peak and that his production would begin to decline thereafter and henceforth.
Now, here’s where we meet with a bone of contention that still exists in this fanbase and mediasphere.
Some folks put their faith in the age curve and other statistical models. They weren’t wrong to do so. By the very nature of statistics, those people would have been correct in the vast majority of cases.
Other folks put their faith in Miller to defy the age curve. Sure, some of that belief may have been borne by individual characteristics, like Miller’s personal determination and fortitude. But it was still mostly faith, and those folks were statistically more likely to be proven wrong in their faith.
The Millerites came out ahead in the schism. Whatever happens from here on out, Miller did not peak at 28. His 2022/23 season may have been an offensive step-back to 82 points in 81 games, but that was as much a result of the team around Miller imploding as anything else.
In 2023/24, with Tocchet Hockey firmly in place, Miller soared to those aforementioned 103 points, hitting a new peak — for now, anyway — at age 30.
Now, here’s where both sides of the divide can come together in positivity.
The folks who always believed in Miller could crow on about how they were correct, and the age-curvers were wrong. They’ve got the high ground there. But to pretend that it was always certain that Miller would perform this way at this age, in this author’s mind, takes away from the exceptionality of what Miller is doing.
One side of the debate bet on the odds, while the other bet on beating the odds. Both can celebrate that because, in the end, Miller beat the odds. And whether they realize it or not, both sides of the argument are necessary to appreciate the whole.
The age curve is useful as a model because so few players break it. JT Miller is a special player because he’s one of the few who has.
He’s a statistical anomaly to some, a man of destiny to others.
But while we’re on the subject of expectations, we’ll throw this thought out: perhaps people in this market should have been a little more hopeful about Miller beating out the age curve. After all, it seems to occur far more with the Vancouver franchise than with any other organization.
The most obvious comparison to draw here is to Daniel and Henrik Sedin. They’re famous for their late-blooming development paths. After being drafted second and third overall in 1999, the Sedin Twins struggled with bust allegations throughout the first half-decade of their careers.
The Sedins didn’t really hit their strides until the 2005/06 season, at age 25. Now, that still fits well within the age curve model. But then the Sedins took several more steps forward, culminating in a 112-point peak for Henrik at age 29 and a 104-point peak for Daniel the year after at age 30.
<a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/sedins-finish-ahead-canucks-prospect-grouse-grind">Daniel and Henrik</a> aren’t the only famous Canucks to peak at 30, either. Less discussed on this front is Markus Naslund, who was also labelled a bust early in his career. Naslund, too, broke out into reasonable production at age 25 and then hit a whole new level at ages 28 and 29 with consecutive seasons of 90 and 104 points.
Maybe that’s why so many had so much faith in Miller breaking the age curve. They’d seen it before. But outside of Vancouver, these instances are rare. Heck, even inside Vancouver, they’re rare. Any way you slice it, having one superstar hit their peak after their supposed prime years is a statistical anomaly. Having four of the best players in franchise history do so is something beyond anomalous.
Either way, at this point and no matter what happens from here on out, Miller has broken the statistical mould.
Some would still take a pessimistic view of the situation. The stats still are what they are, and there’s an argument to be made that Miller is essentially playing on borrowed time. The longer he stretches his own productive prime past the typical prime years, the odds of a significant drop-off become more and more likely.
Thus, we find ourselves at a similar crossroads as before — a question of probability versus faith in an individual.
On that front, we’d like to end on an especially hopeful note.
Statistical models are always works in progress. As new data comes in, the models move, and as trends shift, the models shift with them.
And with the preponderance of focus on nutrition and wellness in the modern NHL, there does seem to be a bit of a shift going on with the previously typical age curve.
On the one hand, the increasing professionalism of developmental leagues has ensured that players are arriving in the league and dominating at an earlier age than ever before. Some might say the NHL is becoming a young man’s league.
On the other hand, increased fitness awareness seems to also be allowing certain older players to stay effective longer.
Did you know, for example, that Sidney Crosby is on his fifth straight season of escalating point totals? At age 32, he posted 47 (albeit in 41 games). Then 62 points at age 33, 84 points at age 34, 93 points at age 35, and 94 points last season at age 36.
Some will point to the physical nature of Miller’s game and worry that he might wear himself down. To that particular critique, we point to Brent Burns. He will turn 40 during the 2024/25 season and is still slated to skate on the top pairing for Carolina. Burns has been throwing his body around for a lot longer than Miller has, and he’s still got it.
Perhaps the most optimistic modern case comparison we can find for Miller is the recently retired Joe Pavelski. Like Miller, Pavelski worked his way through inconsistencies to hit what seemed like a late peak, posting 79 points at age 29 and then 78 at age 31.
But then, in 2021/22, at age 37, Pavelski set all-new standards with an 81-point season. The next year, at age 38, Pavelski scored 14 points in 14 playoff games.
And, sure, Crosby, Burns, and Pavelski are all special players. They’re all anomalous.
But, as he’s already proven, so too is Miller. And, as has also already been indicated, the age curve seems to only apply selectively to Vancouver Canucks superstars.
So, really, there’s no telling where Miller takes things from here. It’s impossible to predict things for someone who has already busted the model wide open.
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Many of us have to increasingly pay attention to curves as we get older, but not in the same way that <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/canucksarmy-complete-top-20-vancouver-canucks-prospect-ranking">NHL players</a> do.

Age curves are models of statistical likelihood. There are different models and modes of presentation, but all they really do is track when NHL players put up their best seasons of production and then use that data to attempt to predict when the average NHLer will hit their ‘prime’ and ‘peak’ years.

The results vary a little depending on inputs and weighting. But most come out stating that most NHL forwards, at least, hit their prime in their mid-20s, between the ages of about 23 and 27. By the time they hit age 27, most NHL forwards will have already put up their best statistical season.

Most NHL forwards, that is. There are always exceptions to the rule, and there are outliers in any model.

And for some strange reason, the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/wdytt-summer-silliness-obscure-former-canucks-cant-out-head">Vancouver Canucks</a> seem to be a franchise with a particular aptitude for breaking the age curve.

We’re talking, of course, about <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/five-year-oscar-test-canucks-jt-miller-trade">JT Miller. Not just Miller</a>, but we’ll start there.

Last season, Miller had a career year. Or, we should say, what looks like a career year so far. As will become apparent, making age-related bets about Miller is a losing proposition.

Miller started the 2023/24 season at age 29 and turned 30 in March. He finished the season scoring 37 goals, 66 assists, and 103 points, beating his previous high of 99 points set two seasons prior.

It’s not something that happens very often.

The age curve became a big point of discussion around Miller when he signed that seven-year, $8 million extension back in September 2022 and for at least the calendar year prior. Many at the time, including this author, thought that extending Miller at age 28 after a career season — and at a salary based on the production of that career season — was a fool’s game.

The statistical models all said that it was very, very likely that Miller had hit his peak and that his production would begin to decline thereafter and henceforth.

Now, here’s where we meet with a bone of contention that still exists in this fanbase and mediasphere.

Some folks put their faith in the age curve and other statistical models. They weren’t wrong to do so. By the very nature of statistics, those people would have been correct in the vast majority of cases.

Other folks put their faith in Miller to defy the age curve. Sure, some of that belief may have been borne by individual characteristics, like Miller’s personal determination and fortitude. But it was still mostly faith, and those folks were statistically more likely to be proven wrong in their faith.

The Millerites came out ahead in the schism. Whatever happens from here on out, Miller did not peak at 28. His 2022/23 season may have been an offensive step-back to 82 points in 81 games, but that was as much a result of the team around Miller imploding as anything else.

In 2023/24, with Tocchet Hockey firmly in place, Miller soared to those aforementioned 103 points, hitting a new peak — for now, anyway — at age 30.

Now, here’s where both sides of the divide can come together in positivity.

The folks who always believed in Miller could crow on about how they were correct, and the age-curvers were wrong. They’ve got the high ground there. But to pretend that it was always certain that Miller would perform this way at this age, in this author’s mind, takes away from the exceptionality of what Miller is doing.

One side of the debate bet on the odds, while the other bet on beating the odds. Both can celebrate that because, in the end, Miller beat the odds. And whether they realize it or not, both sides of the argument are necessary to appreciate the whole.

The age curve is useful as a model because so few players break it. JT Miller is a special player because he’s one of the few who has.

He’s a statistical anomaly to some, a man of destiny to others.

But while we’re on the subject of expectations, we’ll throw this thought out: perhaps people in this market should have been a little more hopeful about Miller beating out the age curve. After all, it seems to occur far more with the Vancouver franchise than with any other organization.

The most obvious comparison to draw here is to Daniel and Henrik Sedin. They’re famous for their late-blooming development paths. After being drafted second and third overall in 1999, the Sedin Twins struggled with bust allegations throughout the first half-decade of their careers.

The Sedins didn’t really hit their strides until the 2005/06 season, at age 25. Now, that still fits well within the age curve model. But then the Sedins took several more steps forward, culminating in a 112-point peak for Henrik at age 29 and a 104-point peak for Daniel the year after at age 30.

<a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/sedins-finish-ahead-canucks-prospect-grouse-grind">Daniel and Henrik</a> aren’t the only famous Canucks to peak at 30, either. Less discussed on this front is Markus Naslund, who was also labelled a bust early in his career. Naslund, too, broke out into reasonable production at age 25 and then hit a whole new level at ages 28 and 29 with consecutive seasons of 90 and 104 points.

Maybe that’s why so many had so much faith in Miller breaking the age curve. They’d seen it before. But outside of Vancouver, these instances are rare. Heck, even inside Vancouver, they’re rare. Any way you slice it, having one superstar hit their peak after their supposed prime years is a statistical anomaly. Having four of the best players in franchise history do so is something beyond anomalous.

Either way, at this point and no matter what happens from here on out, Miller has broken the statistical mould.

Some would still take a pessimistic view of the situation. The stats still are what they are, and there’s an argument to be made that Miller is essentially playing on borrowed time. The longer he stretches his own productive prime past the typical prime years, the odds of a significant drop-off become more and more likely.

Thus, we find ourselves at a similar crossroads as before — a question of probability versus faith in an individual.

On that front, we’d like to end on an especially hopeful note.

Statistical models are always works in progress. As new data comes in, the models move, and as trends shift, the models shift with them.

And with the preponderance of focus on nutrition and wellness in the modern NHL, there does seem to be a bit of a shift going on with the previously typical age curve.

On the one hand, the increasing professionalism of developmental leagues has ensured that players are arriving in the league and dominating at an earlier age than ever before. Some might say the NHL is becoming a young man’s league.

On the other hand, increased fitness awareness seems to also be allowing certain older players to stay effective longer.

Did you know, for example, that Sidney Crosby is on his fifth straight season of escalating point totals? At age 32, he posted 47 (albeit in 41 games). Then 62 points at age 33, 84 points at age 34, 93 points at age 35, and 94 points last season at age 36.

Some will point to the physical nature of Miller’s game and worry that he might wear himself down. To that particular critique, we point to Brent Burns. He will turn 40 during the 2024/25 season and is still slated to skate on the top pairing for Carolina. Burns has been throwing his body around for a lot longer than Miller has, and he’s still got it.

Perhaps the most optimistic modern case comparison we can find for Miller is the recently retired Joe Pavelski. Like Miller, Pavelski worked his way through inconsistencies to hit what seemed like a late peak, posting 79 points at age 29 and then 78 at age 31.

But then, in 2021/22, at age 37, Pavelski set all-new standards with an 81-point season. The next year, at age 38, Pavelski scored 14 points in 14 playoff games.

And, sure, Crosby, Burns, and Pavelski are all special players. They’re all anomalous.

But, as he’s already proven, so too is Miller. And, as has also already been indicated, the age curve seems to only apply selectively to Vancouver Canucks superstars.

So, really, there’s no telling where Miller takes things from here. It’s impossible to predict things for someone who has already busted the model wide open.

Nation Gear Summer Sale!

<a href="https://nationgear.ca/"><img class="alignnone wp-image-129407 size-full" src="https://publish.canucksarmy.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2099/08/Article.png" alt="" width="727" height="404" /></a>
The Nation Gear Out of Office Summer Sale is here, and it's one week only! We're taking 20% off your entire order — yes, you heard that right, 20% off! Some exclusions apply, but don't let that stop you from snagging the best deals of the season. And it gets even better! Spend over $200, and we'll throw in free shipping — shop 'til you drop and let us handle the shipping costs.
So what are you waiting for? Head over to <a href="http://nationgear.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://nationgear.ca&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1722379874701000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1_fMFSToUz5XOXEclvxLek">nationgear.ca</a> and grab your favourite gear before it’s gone — we may have even snuck in a few surprise items available ONLY THIS WEEK!

JT Miller and the Canucks’ odd history of defying the age curve

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